Editor’s Note: All my graphics going forward will come directly from Stat Soldier. Go check it out by clicking here.
It is no secret that this year’s free agency class is not sexy. Yes, there is the obvious crown jewel in Tarik Skubal, but after Skubal, the talent level really drops off. I will say that even with the market down regarding high-profile talent, it’s going to be an interesting offseason. With a lockout looming and teams scrambling to lock down roster talent, this offseason will for sure be full of surprises!
The MLB offseason always provides us baseball fans with some electric entertainment. Personally, I am just hoping we have a season in 2027, so I am not getting my hopes up about seeing deal after deal once the chain reaction starts with the first high-profile player signing.
Due to the lingering CBA negotiations, I will not predict contract value; I am just going to predict landing spots for my top-15 free agents. Might be boring; I don’t care.
Let us jump in to look at the free agency field.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz, Jazz, Jazz… honestly, who knows? I have no clue where he is going to end up. All I know is that he will not be a Yankee in 2027. He suffered a hard regression compared to his 2025 season. Not to mention, he seemed to always be in the news for the wrong reasons. Don’t get me wrong, personally I have nothing against Jazz, but as a fan of the Yankees who is hungry for a championship season sooner rather than later, New York just doesn’t seem like the future home for Chisholm Jr. Maybe Jazz teams up with Elly De La Cruz in Cincinnati and we get to witness one of the swaggiest middle infield combos in baseball next season (if we have one!).
Prediction - Cincinnati Reds
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe is a bat that literally any team could prosper by signing. Hence the reason the Pirates gave him the Qualifying Offer. He plays a position that is not that deep in terms of bat talent and doesn’t sacrifice average for power, as he hit .260 in 2026 with 35 bombs. It is no secret that Jazz Chisholm Jr. will not be a Yankee in 2027, and the Yankees need to add a second baseman. This could be a match made in heaven situation for Lowe and the Yankees.
Prediction - New York Yankees
Jake Bauers
This all depends on what he does about the Brewers’ qualifying offer. I mean, two years ago, this guy was out of baseball. Now he has $23.15M staring him in the face. I think he will accept it and look to run it back with Milwaukee in 2027.
Prediction - Milwaukee Brewers
Luis Arraez
The best hitter in baseball? Not being serious, but at the same time I am kind of serious. All baseball organizations and fans know what they are getting with Arraez, a guy who gets on base a ton. Looking around at who needs hitting, this can go so many ways. I think this all depends on where Lowe and Chisholm Jr. end up, as they can play second base. I’ll assume Arraez fills in the void that Brandon Lowe leaves in Pittsburgh.
Prediction - Pittsburgh Pirates
David Bednar
David Bednar is going nowhere. He likes New York; New York likes him. Better yet, New York needs him, and the Yankees are one of maybe 10 teams who would even entertain giving Bednar the money he is looking to secure this offseason.
Prediction - New York Yankees
Clay Holmes
Clay Holmes was one of the bright spots for the Mets this past season. He was moved during the season to the Cubs, who were doing anything to try and patch together a rotation. We know he can start; we know he can also come out of the bullpen and close out games. Who needs pitching more than any other contender right now? His current team, the Chicago Cubs.
Prediction - Chicago Cubs
Ian Happ
Ian Happ just feels like a Chicago Cub. He is the longest-tenured player on the roster. Chicago’s offense was not the problem this past season; it was the arms. I can’t imagine the Cubs letting Suzuki and Happ walk in free agency, so if I had to pick, Happ is the guy I am assuming will stick around.
Prediction - Chicago Cubs
Adrian Morejon
Jose Alvarado is more than likely to part ways with Philadelphia this offseason, and the Phillies are going to be on the lookout for a lefty reliever who pitches with high velocity. The question is, does San Diego like him enough to win a bidding war?
Prediction - Philadelphia Phillies
Trevor Rogers
If I am Trevor Rogers, I am getting the hell out of Baltimore. No way am I accepting the qualifying offer from Baltimore. He is way too good for what Baltimore is offering as a product right now. Add this guy to a team serious about winning. My bet is he stays in the division and heads to Toronto to help them with a revenge tour next season.
Prediction - Toronto Blue Jays
Randy Arozarena
The Mariners are definitely going to shake it up after a disappointing season. Did they give him the qualifying offer? yes. Does Randy take it? No. Arozarena was one of the only bright spots for Seattle, and he is going to be able to command some real money in the market. Who likes to spend money and needs a right-handed bat in the outfield? The San Diego Padres! Already feels right.
Prediction - San Diego Padres
Freddy Peralta
I honestly felt very bad for Peralta not getting to enjoy winning a World Series. Losing to the team that you started your MLB career with for 8 seasons is a tough pill to swallow. The good news is he is no longer a New York Met. I’m betting big on Chicago to make a splash this offseason. I have Peralta heading to the North Side of Chicago!
Prediction - Chicago Cubs
Teruaki Sato
Like I said earlier, Seattle is going to shake it up this offseason. There is too much talent on the Mariners roster not to try and make a run. They could platoon Brendan Donovan and Cole Young to their advantage throughout the season and inject some extra offense from the hot corner!
Prediction - Seattle Mariners
Seiya Suzuki
The Cubs need to focus on bolstering the pitching staff and have several guys who could make the jump to replace Suzuki’s impact in the lineup. If the Cubs keep Ian Happ (longest-tenured Cub), which I am predicting to happen, they will need to look to other players in the organization such as Matt Shaw, Pedro Ramirez, Kevin Alcantara, or Josiah Hartshorn. That being the case, Suzuki is a perfect fit for Toronto. The Blue Jays need a high-impact bat in the outfield and are looking to rebound big time in 2027 following a catastrophic 2026, when they failed to reach the postseason after representing the American League in the World Series in 2025.
Prediction - Toronto Blue Jays
Michael King
Baltimore is in one of the weirdest spots in baseball. A few years ago, people were talking about Baltimore becoming a dynasty; now we are looking at the Orioles on the brink of another rebuild. They need to add to the rotation and hope some of their young bats step up their game next season. Given that this free agency market is lacking big-time hitters, I would assume Baltimore will concentrate on adding one or two of the top arms to get back to contention in 2027.
Prediction - Baltimore Orioles
Tarik Skubal
Skubal is out to make bank and rightfully so. The Detroit Tigers moved him last season as they knew they couldn’t afford him. The Dodgers have so many other arms, and I would assume they will use any excess money to go after bullpen arms. The Mets have one of the richest owners in all of professional sports, and they look desperate to turn this team around. Look for a match made in heaven, as Skubal will give the Mets a true ace, and the Mets will reward Skubal handsomely with a massive contract.
Prediction - New York Mets
Going landing spots only and skipping contract values makes sense with the CBA mess. It'd be fun to track these as deals land: an automated scorecard that marks each call right or wrong as signings are announced and keeps a running hit rate for the offseason. I build little tools like that, happy to set one up if you're interested.