2025 MLB Preseason Award Predictions

A Blog by Greg

In only a few weeks, we will officially have MLB regular season action. Finally, fans of the sport can watch their favorite team in meaningful baseball games (sorry Spring Training). Throughout the offseason, almost every MLB fan has been spewing propaganda to their friends or strangers on X (follow GRMBets) and is patiently awaiting the long 162-game season to begin so their “hot takes” can be proven right. I am no stranger to this practice, as over the past six weeks, I have been releasing blogs discussing my favorite future bets within each of the six MLB divisions. Those blogs are essentially my “hot takes” in wager form. During those blogs, I purposely excluded any bets on awards, not just because many states restrict wagers on awards, but because I was planning a new series. This series of articles will be updated every few months tracking my predictions for the awards as well as my favorite high-value bets for each award.

Rookie of the Year

This award is very difficult to predict during preseason as MLB players’ timetables and status as a rookie are far more complex than in other professional leagues. For that reason, I won’t spend a tremendous amount of time discussing this award; however, I will provide picks for the sake of the series. In the American League, I think Jasson Dominguez will win ROY, and in the National League, I believe Dylan Crews will win ROY. Both players are, of course, highly touted prospects and by no means long shots to win the award as of now; however, I am high on both of these guys entering the season. For Dominguez, he is likely to be an everyday starter, and with the news that Giancarlo Stanton will miss a significant amount of time with an injury, the DH spot will be freed up, giving Dominguez even more opportunities to shine. On the other hand, Roki Sasaki is currently the favorite to win the award for the National League, with Crews as a close second in terms of odds. I am skeptical about choosing Sasaki to win ROY purely because the Dodgers’ rotation is so deep that it is more than likely that Sasaki will lack the cumulative statistics compared to other starting pitchers. Crews, however, is on a rebuilding Nationals team that is willing to give their younger players as much exposure to the big leagues as possible.

AL ROY: Jasson Dominguez (+350)

NL ROY: Dylan Crews (+350)

Cy Young

Last year’s Cy Young race was full of incredible storylines. In the National League, 35-year-old Chris Sale took home the trophy in shocking fashion, beating out Zach Wheeler and rookie phenom Paul Skenes. Sale hadn’t been an effective starter since the 2018 season, and few expected him to excel in his first year with the Braves (he was listed at 70-1 to win the award before the 2024 season). Sale did just that, excel, as he led the National League in all major pitching categories. However, Sale’s age and injury history scare me, and I can’t justify picking him to repeat as the winner. In addition, I won’t be selecting the heavy favorite, Paul Skenes, either. I think his short 2024 ROY campaign was incredible, but I am skeptical of Skenes repeating that level of success while staying healthy for a full 162-game season. Also, he is currently listed at +300 on most sportsbooks, which is far too short of odds, in my opinion. For reference, a player hasn’t won the Cy Young with that short of odds since Jacob DeGrom in 2019. For my pick, I will be going past the big three (Sale, Skenes, and Wheeler) and selecting Zac Gallen to win the 2025 NL Cy Young Award. Gallen had a disappointing 2024 season after finishing 5th and 3rd in Cy Young voting in 2022 and 2023, respectively (he even received MVP votes in 2023). Gallen’s regression was due to a combination of missing time due to injuries, as well as a significant increase in BB%. The walk ratio can be explained by the lower body injury he suffered last season (which was not severe) as well as the overall NL pennant hangover experienced by the Diamondbacks roster. With Gallen expected to hit free agency next season, 2025 will be a true “prove it season” if Gallen wants to receive the multi-$100 million contract that he believes he deserves.

In the American League, Tarik Skubal finally “broke out” for the Tigers and easily won the AL Cy Young, receiving all 30 first-place votes. Skubal’s 18 wins, 170 ERA+, and 228 Ks cemented his status as a dominant pitcher and are why he is the heavy favorite to repeat as the AL Cy Young winner (+300). However, winning back-to-back Cy Youngs in the American League is no easy feat and hasn’t been accomplished in nearly 30 years (Roger Clemens with the Blue Jays in 1997 and 1998). For that reason, as well as his complicated injury history, I will not be picking Tarik Skubal in the AL. Rather, my choice is Cole Ragans (+900). Ever since the 27-year-old was traded from the Rangers to the Royals during the 2023 season, Cole Ragans has been nothing short of excellent. Last season, Ragans was overshadowed by his teammate, Seth Lugo, having one of the most incredible and unexpected seasons ever by a career reliever turned starting pitcher. While Lugo finished 2nd in Cy Young voting, Ragans wasn’t far behind, finishing 4th and putting up comparable numbers to his Kansas City teammate. Additionally, Ragans is 8 years younger than Lugo and is much more effective as a strikeout pitcher as he led the AL in K/9 (10.8 compared to Lugo’s 7.9) and struck out an impressive 223 batters. Ragans is by no means an underdog in the 2025 Cy Young race (he is listed at +900); however, I think his time with Kansas City deserves more praise, and I am confident that Cole Ragans will continue to succeed with the Royals and be a serious contender to dethrone Tarik Skubal.

National League Cy Young: Zac Gallen (30/1)

American League Cy Young Cole Ragans (9/1)

Most Valuable Player

Finally, the moment you have all been waiting for. The most prestigious award in all of Major League Baseball: is the MVP award. Starting with the National League, the favorite to win the MVP is, of course, Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani ran away with the MVP in 2024 despite only being a designated hitter as he made MLB history by hitting 50 HRs and tallying 50 SBs. Now, Ohtani will also (possibly) make his return to the pitching mound for the Dodgers. I am fully aware that picking Shohei Ohtani, the far and away favorite, the man who achieved the first-ever 50/50 season, and the winner of 3 MVPs in the past four years, is not a steaming hot take by any measure. However, how could you pick anyone else? If Ohtani is healthy, he will win MVP! However, since this pick is so boring, I will provide an honorable mention for the NL: Corbin Carroll. I wrote extensively about Carroll in my previous blog, so I will refrain from repeating myself too much, but Corbin Carroll is the perfect bounce-back candidate. He is a 24-year-old 5-tool player on a very competitive team only a season removed from hitting 25 HRs and stealing 54 bases in his rookie year! I am super bullish on Carroll and think he is wildly mispriced at 35-1 to win MVP. If you want to take a long shot on an NL MVP, make it Corbin Carroll.

Similar to the National League, the AL has a very clear favorite as well in Aaron Judge. However, I will be putting my Yankee fandom to the side and avoiding picking another massive favorite for MVP. Instead, I will be going far down the list to select Julio Rodriguez from the Seattle Mariners. Rodriguez’s young MLB career is eerily similar to the aforementioned Corbin Carroll. J-Rod is also a 24-year-old 5-tool player on a competitive team, a former Rookie of the Year award winner, and only one season removed from an incredible 2023 campaign in which he received MVP votes. Now, I am certainly not the first person to point out the resemblance between these two ballplayers, but it is perplexing how both of these individuals are being disrespected in terms of MVP odds in their respective leagues. Rodriguez is still so young and has finished in the top 7 in MVP voting in 2 out of his 3 years in the majors. Additionally, his power numbers, despite taking a dip in 2024, have been incredible, making him an even more likely MVP candidate than his NL counterpart, Corbin Carroll. I truly think if J-Rod stays healthy, he is a likely candidate to achieve a 40/40 season and be the first person not named Judge or Ohtani to win the AL MVP since 2020.

NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani (+200)

Honorable Mention: Corbin Carroll (35/1)

AL MVP: Julio Rodriguez (20/1)

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