2025 MLB Award Predictions
A Blog by Hagen
The wait is finally over, 2025 MLB Opening Day is finally here! Happy Hollidays to anyone that celebrates, we are officially back. This is a very exciting time of the year, and quite honestly my favorite. After what felt like an eternity of an offseason has come to an end, it’s time to finally see what this season has in store. Maybe even a concert from a 34 year old veteran on a minor league deal following a game.
With the season starting I wanted to release my 2025 MLB award predictions. While I have some bets on guys that won’t be listed here, there are my predictions on how I think the awards will shape out. Some of my predictions are bold, while some are bland. I feel good about these picks and hopefully they pan out well when we revisit them at the end of the season!
AL MVP
Julio Rodríguez (SEA)
This is the year J-Rod finally puts it all together for a full 162 game season. Which sounds funny for a guy who’s only 24 years old and has finished top 7 in MVP voting twice to this point already. But, even with an incredible start to his career and only three seasons under his belt, he still hasn’t been able to be consistent at the plate for an entire season. When he’s on he looks like arguably the best player in baseball. On the other side when he’s off, it can be a frustrating watch.
Julio is known for getting off to a slow start at the plate so far in his career. His career wRC+ in the 1st half is 115, compared to 155 in the 2nd half. I believe this is the year where he rakes out of the gate and has overall consistency throughout the season. If this is the case, he has true 40/40 potential while also providing elite defense in Center Field. A lot of people believe he will win an MVP at some point throughout his career, and for me, I believe that will be the case in 2025
A big concern people might have with this pick is the home/road splits, especially when his home ballpark favors pitchers more than any other stadium. Last year he posted a 98 wRC+ at home, and 131 wRC+ on the road. Now this is a little concerning especially when it’s known how hard it is to hit in Seattle. Before last season he had a 124 wRC+ at home and 131 wRC+ on the road. Even though we only have a 3 season sample size for Julio, I feel very good about his production at home to regress back towards the mean.
Runner Up: Bobby Witt Jr. (KCR)
NL MVP
Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
This one doesn’t need too much explanation behind it. With Ohtani looking like he will pitch again this year, it’s the closest thing to a real life cheat code. Betting sites have him close to even odds, respectively, because of this. If he wasn’t on pace to pitch this year I would have gone a different direction with this one. Barring a career changing injury, he is looking like he will become the second player in MLB history to achieve more than 3 MVP awards, with the first being Barry Bonds with 7.
While I could have gone with Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, or Corbin Carroll, I think doing so would just be getting too cute. For as long as Ohtani is going to continue pitching and hitting in his career, he will almost certainly be a lock for the award year in and year out. It’s an extremely boring pick and there's nothing bold about it, but it’s one I have to make.
Runner Up: Juan Soto (NYM)
AL Cy Young
Jacob deGrom (TEX)
The way I view this is that I’m betting on deGrom to stay healthy this season. Although throughout recent history that bet hasn’t paid off, I’m willing to take it again. Even at 36 years of age when deGrom is on the mound he’s dominant, and still one of the best pitchers on the planet. In his last 35 starts he has posted 197.1 innings, 1.63 FIP, 200 ERA+, 0.679 WHIP, and 307 strikeouts. Sadly, those starts date all the way back to the beginning of the 2021 season.
He’s 100% healthy for first time in a while, and got an entirely normal offseason. Unlike previous years where he’s spent the winter months doing rehab, he was able to go about his business in a normal manner. Another big reason why I’m banking on him to stay healthy is the velocity. Instead of siting 98-99 MPH on the heater, he’s going to tone it down to around 96 MPH. That might worry some people, but it’s ultimately the right thing to do in my opinion so he isn’t throwing max effort every single pitch, which will hopefully lead to longer sustained health in 2025. While the lower velocity will hurt his stuff a bit, I still believe deGrom can go out and dominate.
This was one of the hardest awards for me to make a final decision on. I ultimately went with what I’ve been very vocal about this entire offseason, which is I truly believe in him staying healthy this year. I also must note there’s some bias, with deGrom being my favorite player of all time.
Runner Up: Garrett Crochet (BOS)
NL Cy Young
Paul Skenes (PIT)
Like the Ohtani pick, it’s hard not to go with Skenes here. Last season he made 23 starts for the Pirates and they were incredible to say the least. In a total of 133 innings he posted an astounding 1.96 ERA, 214 ERA+, 0.947 WHIP, and 170 strikeouts. What makes this campaign even more impressive is that he did this as a rookie and won the corresponding award, and also finished third in NL Cy Young voting. I view Skenes as the 2nd best pitcher I’ve ever seen in my life, right behind Jacob deGrom.
Coming into 2025 Skenes has added two more pitches to his already ridiculous arsenal, with a 2-Seam Fastball and a Cutter. This shocked a lot of people because his pure stuff was already amongst the best in baseball as a rookie. Adding these pitches will likely help him go deeper into games by being able to show opponents different looks, as well as hopefully miss barrels when pitching to contact early in counts.
It’s also worthy to note that this will only be the third year that Skenes is focusing on pitching full time. In his first two years of college at Air Force, he was their starting Catcher on top of being a dominant arm. Once he transferred to LSU in 2023 he officially became a pitcher full time.
Runner Up: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
AL ROY
Jacob Wilson (ATH)
I admittedly am not as knowledgeable when it comes to prospects, so I don’t have too much to add onto my Rookie of the Year picks. What I do know though, is that Jacob Wilson is a very good ballplayer. He is a bat to ball type hitter that can slap the ball all over the field and into the gaps. While the power isn’t there, the contact makes up for it, and I can very well see him having an offensive production 20-30% above league average this season.
Runner Up: Jackson Jobe (DET)
NL ROY
Bubba Chandler (PIT)
I’m definitely taking a chance on this one with him not making the Pirates Opening Day roster. While this is unfortunate, I expect him to come up very quick this year and help the Buccos, who have already shut down a frontline starter in Jared Jones for 6 weeks. The arsenal grades out very well and can definitely make a strong impact at the Major League level right away. When he eventually makes the big league club, his starts are going to be must watch.
Runner Up: Matt Shaw (CHC)
AL Reliever
Félix Bautista (BAL)
I am all in on Bautista this year who is making his return from Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him for the entire 2024 season. If you somehow aren’t familiar with him, get to know him. When you close your eyes and think of a Closer in today’s game, you will see Felix. He throws an absolutely disgusting Splitter that supplements his 100 MPH Sinker.
Expect him to strikeout the world this year while holding down the 9th inning comfortably. The Splitter will induce a ton of chase out of the zone, and the Sinker will limit hard contact. Hits are extremely difficult to come by against Bautista, with opponents hitting just .155 against him over the course of his career which dates back to 2022.
The last time he was on the mound he was one of the best relievers in baseball, and that hasn’t changed. In Spring Training we saw that the stuff is still there and it graded out excellent, even though the results weren't quite there. If you’re facing the Orioles and are down going into the 9th inning, good luck making a comeback.
Runner Up: Mason Miller (ATH)
NL Reliever
Edwin Díaz (NYM)
As a Mets fan who’s very active on X, there is a lot of concern among the community surrounding Díaz this year. I really can’t wrap my head around it, he is still one of the best relievers in baseball. 2024 was a very bad year for his standards putting up a 3.52 ERA, 20 Saves, and a career high 7 Blown Saves. We have to view the whole picture with his numbers in 2024 though, because he could never get any momentum throughout the season. When it looked like he was starting to look like himself again in June, he served a 10 game suspension for sticky stuff, which also came on the heels off an IL stint for a shoulder issue.
When you compare his dominant 2022 season with last year, (missed all of 2023) on the surface they are drastically different. But when you look into his peripherals, not much changed. Even with a mid 3’s ERA last year, his expected ERA was 2.49, which ranked in the 98th percentile. Baseball has good and bad luck everywhere you look, and 2024 as a whole was unlucky for Edwin Díaz.
For people that are concerned with the Fastball velocity only sitting around 96 MPH in Spring Training, don’t worry about it too much. He is a closer that lives off adrenaline and the energy that comes in the late innings of tight games. When he’s back in meaningful games and high stress situations, the velo will be there.