2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets at Each Position

A Blog By Nick

I was going to put this into a tweet, but then it began to be insanely too long, and I wanted to elaborate on some things. So here we are.

These are my main targets at each position.

All Average Draft Position data is from FantasyPros.

Catcher

Yainer Diaz (74 ADP)

Sean Murphy (234 ADP)

Francisco Alvarez (180 ADP)

Alejandro Kirk (300 ADP)

Let’s clarify here. I like Yainer this year, but I probably will only be taking him in TWO catcher leagues. In single catcher leagues, I am waiting on drafting this position — unless somebody like Yainer Diaz, Cal Raleigh, or Salvador Perez fall (a lot).

I think Sean Murphy will payout similar production to Adley Rutschman this season. Yes, you read that correctly.

Francisco Alvarez has to break out eventually. Right? He might have the highest power upside at the position.

Alejandro Kirk finally has the job in Toronto all to himself. I like him to be a contributor in average (.275), and respectable R/RBI.

Just a side note here, I really wanted to have Willson Contreras (STL) on this list, but he is going earlier than I thought he would. He lead ALL catchers in wRC+ last year. He’ll be playing first base this season, so he likely won’t have the usual days off that catchers have.

First Base

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (13 ADP)

Matt Olson (31 ADP)

Pete Alonso (42 ADP)

Triston Casas (118 ADP)

Michael Toglia (215 ADP)

Jonathan Aranda (359 ADP)

Unlike catcher, I actually am an advocate for drafting first base early. In 15 team leagues with corner infield spots, first base can go downhill, QUICK. If it falls out from under you, grab Michael Toglia, who will destroy your batting average, but could hit 30 PLUS home runs for the Rockies. If you miss out on Toglia, you aren’t completely screwed.. Draft Jonathan Aranda.

Matt Olson doesn’t need much elaboration. The Braves have the best offense in baseball this year, and he’ll bounce back from his feeble 98 RBI in a down year.

Pete Alonso is hitting behind Lindor and Soto. What?! RBI Galore. 30 HR floor as well.

This is the year of Triston Casas too. I’m tired of the hate, guys! I know he’s a weirdo, but he is a stud!

Second Base

Xander Bogaerts (145 ADP)

Brandon Lowe (227 ADP) (Don’t wait that long)

Zack Gelof (263 ADP)

Jonathan India (228 ADP)

Thairo Estrada (324 ADP)

Otto Lopez (332 ADP)

Brendan Rodgers (442 ADP)

As you can tell, I’m waiting at second base. There is a lot of late value at this position.

Xander Bogaerts got hurt for like the first time ever, and now we all hate him? His floor is what a lot of second basemen’s upside is.

Lowe if healthy is a 30+ HR threat. Gelof has 20/20 type upside, but has a pretty low floor. India is a safer floor, and is really a Runs/AVG specialist.

Thairo Estrada is just one of those guys who you can grab late, and see how Coors field treats him. 15 HR / 20 SB is reasonable, with an average that won’t kill you.

Lopez is a AVG/Steals guy. His defense is excellent, and the Marlins are awful — so he will probably play every day.

Brendan Rodgers just signed with the Astros, and could end up being their starting second baseman. He has HR and RBI upside, but that’s it. I’m oddly excited about the former top Rockies prospect. Health is major a factor with him.

Shortstop

Bobby Witt Jr. (My 1.01)

Oneil Cruz (64 ADP)

Bo Bichette (135 ADP)

Trevor Story (286 ADP)

Xavier Edwards (162 ADP)

Jacob Wilson (358 ADP)

Shortstop is probably going to be draft dependent for me. I’m not opposed to drafting any of the top guys. Mookie Betts’ positional flexibility is a nice luxury, on top of him being a pretty good baseball player.

Oneil Cruz is also outfield eligible, so pencil him in for outfield if you swing and miss drafting outfielders. I think he finally “arrives” this season.

Bichette and Story are “my guys” that I really want. I’m buying into Bichette having an extra pep in his step for his contract season. Bo lead the league in hits in 2021, 2022, and was top 10 in 2023. He gets hurt in 2024, and we all dismiss him in his contract year? Make it make sense. I even like him to steal 10+ bags as a bonus.

If Trevor Story gets hurt, have Marcelo Mayer queued up.

Xavier Edwards is the “slap dick” prospect that Blake Snell famously talked about in Tampa. Well he’s a Marlin now, and could hit .290 and steal 40 bags. 0 HR’s is in the realm of possibility though — kidding (kind of).

Jacob Wilson only played 79 games in the minors, but hit .401. Yes that was his batting average. He is the A’s #1 prospect. This is a Luis Arraez type profile that is in a good lineup (so are the padres), a minor league ballpark, and after pick 300. Really good consolation if you miss out on those other guys.

Third Base

Junior Caminero (102 ADP)

Alex Bregman (97 ADP)

Connor Norby (288 ADP)

Noelvi Marte (330 ADP)

Miguel Vargas (451 ADP)

In my opinion, there isn’t anything holding back Junior Caminero from producing like the other elite third basemen HR/RBI/R/AVG wise. He isn’t going to steal more than a few bags. But he’s the real deal, and is in a MiLB park all season.

Bregman doesn’t have the Caminero upside, but does have an incredibly high floor. Just be patient with him in April, because he is historically not good then. He is going to pepper the Green Monster, and will be hitting behind Duran and Devers. Sign me up for all of the RBI!

I wrote about Connor Norby in my sleepers piece, check it out!

For those of you that remember, I was infatuated with Noelvi Marte last year, then he got popped for PED’s and was dreadful when he returned. I’m not saying go out of your way for him, but if he is on the board late, he still has 20/20 upside. He is in the most hitter friendly park in baseball for home runs.

Miguel Vargas I believe can hit for a solid average and hit 20 HR’s if all breaks right. He is really only applicable in deep leagues. He is also outfield eligible, so pencil him in there as well. If you’ve forgotten, this guy was one of the jewels of the Dodgers farm for a couple of years. Just because he got sent to the South Side, doesn’t mean he needs to be dismissed.

Outfield

Fernando Tatis Jr. (13 ADP)

Julio Rodriguez (22 ADP)

Oneil Cruz (64 ADP)

Mike Trout (102 ADP)

Luis Robert (111 ADP)

Dylan Crews (145 ADP)

TJ Friedl (273 ADP)

Garrett Mitchell (278 ADP)

Michael Conforto (317 ADP)

Chas McCormick (420 ADP)

Victor Scott II (464 ADP)

Miguel Vargas (451 ADP)

Roman Anthony (288 ADP)

Colby Thomas (487 ADP)

My outfield draft decisions are pretty directly related to how the rest of the positions go. I prefer to get an outfielder in the first round. Ideally Tatis, but JRod is a great consolation.

Oneil Cruz like I said earlier will only be my shortstop if I miss on the others, otherwise, I am plugging him into my outfield, and getting a nice Dominican duo of one of Tatis/Rodriguez and Cruz to start the big rounds of my draft.

Trout and Robert really are paired together due to injury concerns. I’d rather have Trout, but people don’t seem to be afraid of his injury concern, and take him before I can. For what it’s worth, Trout has moved from centerfield and has changed some of his off field regiment in an effort to stay healthy this season. Fingers crossed.

LuBob is still an incredible talent. I think the mental aspect of being on the worst team in baseball (by a lot) got to him. There are still red flags here aside from injury concern, but he’s so talented.

Dylan Crews could go 20/40, and have a Corbin Carroll-esque rookie season for the Nats. I wouldn’t mind drafting his teammate James Wood either.

TJ Friedl isn’t the sexiest name on here, but he is in line to bat leadoff for the Reds, and could be a 15/15 guy with respectable run production. He’ll be a wash in AVG and RBI. If news comes out that he is not leading off for the Reds, get him off of your draft board.

I wrote about Garrett Mitchell, Michael Conforto, and Victor Scott II in my sleeper hitters piece, so refer (again) to that.

Chas McCormick was fantastic in 2023, then he was a complete BUST in 2024, which most people saw coming. But now he’s being completely disregarded, and I’m not having it. He hit .273 and almost went 20/20 in 2023. He was hurt most of 2024, so it’s not like that talent has disappeared. He’s going so late that it almost doesn’t matter if his talent actually did disappear. Worth a shot!

If news breaks that Roman Anthony makes the Red Sox Opening Day roster, he will be the American League Rookie of the Year. I just don’t really know if they will have him on the roster. He is mainly on here due to the fact that most of you will know if he is or not by the time you draft. He’s a must draft if he does make the club.

If Colby Thomas makes the Opening Day roster for the A’s, he better be on your team. The #7 prospect for the A’s hit .277, 31 HR’s and had 15 Steals in AA/AAA last year (132 Games). Now I do recognize that he hit in the PCL which is very hitter friendly, but you’ll never guess which league the A’s home park belonged to in 2024.

Starting Pitcher

Garrett Crochet (34.6 ADP)

Jacob deGrom (63 ADP) (read this before you yell at me)

Bailey Ober (87 ADP)

Framber Valdez (58 ADP)

Spencer Schwellenbach (98 ADP)

Grayson Rodriguez (107 ADP)

Zac Gallen (103 ADP)

Robbie Ray (191 ADP)

Nick Lodolo (248 ADP)

Jesus Luzardo (277 ADP)

Nick Pivetta (208 ADP)

MacKenzie Gore (216 ADP)

Bowden Francis (198 ADP)

Quinn Matthews (407 ADP)

Osvaldo Bido (465 ADP)

Dustin May (393 ADP)

Despite betting 3 of the last 6 Cy Young winners, I am far from a pitching guru, so I won’t have a huge blurb about all of these guys. I did write an article about deGrom, so check that out. I have deGrom, Crochet and Ober as my AL CY bets this year. I usually just do two, but Ober was 100-1. How could I resist?!

My main logic for Zac Gallen is that he is very resilient, and is in a contract year. Great team offense, and he pitches deep into games. Wins will be solid, respectable ratios (bad WHIP last year, but that is an outlier). Pretty similar logic for Framber Valdez too. Valdez was absurd to end last season. He is also entering a contract year.

Schwelly is another guy who broke out last year that I am in on. I can see him being the Braves SP1 this season. He may or may not be a NL CY pick of mine (he is).

I think Grayson Rodriguez finally arrives in 2025. I think the Orioles might think so too. They have completely neglected the high end pitching department since Burnes has left for Arizona.

Robbie Ray apparently is working on a changeup that Tarik Skubal helped him with? He pitches in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball at suppressing HR’s, and has Patrick Bailey calling his games and framing for him? And he won a Cy Young once upon a time? Tommy John honeymoon period? Sign me up. Elite K stuff, but will have some serious blow up starts. If he can minimize the blow ups, he’ll be really fun to roster this year.

Nick Lodolo needs to stay healthy. That’s the analysis.

I don’t think I’ll ever give up on Jesus Luzardo. I was out on him last year, after his draft price was just out of my range. He won’t ever be a Cy Young candidate like I predicted a few years ago, but Luzardo will have ratios that won’t kill you, and will contribute K’s and Wins being on a great Philly team this year. He’s very undervalued, because the ratios do have upside if Philly can tap into him like they have with someof their other recent breakout pitchers.

Are we really doing Nick Pivetta again? Yeah, I’ll bite. He’s in one of the best pitcher parks in baseball, after being in Fenway and Citizen’s Bank. Fenway is the 2nd best for offense, and Philly is 5th best for home runs. He has fantastic K stuff, and I think was pretty close to putting it all together the past two years, but had some flukey injuries.

I actually debated on leaving MacKenzie Gore off of this list. He’s so frustrating. But I don’t think he gets worse — he’s too talented. I think the Nationals take a step forward as a team, and I believe he will be heading the rotation in doing so.

Bowden Francis was pure comedy to watch at the end of last season. He straight up toyed with hitters. He has a cool last name too. I actually think he could be the ace of the Jays’ ancient staff this season.

Quinn Matthews has succeeded in the minors, and it’s only a matter of when he does in the majors. I really don’t worry about the “if.” The Cardinals *should* be trading Erick Fedde and/or Sonny Gray, so there should be open rotation spots in STL, and Quinn should be first in line.

Osvaldo Bido was so good last year, I actually have no clue why his price is as low as it is. His new ballpark may be bad, but aside from that, he could be a serious contributor to your 15 team rosters.

If Dustin May gets the Dodgers 5th or 6th rotation spot, there is no way he is giving it back. May will potentially give you good ratios, and wins. Any K’s he gets are a bonus.

Relief Pitcher

*saves leagues*

Josh Hader (62 ADP)

Raisel Iglesias (82 ADP)

Alexis Diaz (164 ADP)

Trevor Megill (192 ADP)

Kenley Jansen (244 ADP)

Edwin Uceta (357 ADP)

Josh Hader is my RP1 this year. I’m looking forward to his second season in Houston. He should have some positive regression as far as save opportunities go. Elite in all RP categories (maybe not “elite” in WHIP).

Iglesias in my opinion is on the best offensive team in baseball, and will have a ton of save opportunities. He’s as safe as it gets for closers at this point in the draft.

Alexis Diaz to me just doesn’t seem like his job is at risk. The Reds bullpen is pretty bad. Diaz was overworked in 2023, and I felt that 2024 was a wash for then entire Reds team. I think he will be solid this year.

Did 2024 not happen? Megill at 192? This makes zero sense. He will probably be a top 10 closer this year.

Kenley is old, but one thing he is adamant about, is that his arm is fresh. He didn’t start pitching until he was about 20 years old. I think this is a good move for the Halos, and Jansen can get you a good amount of saves late(er) in your draft.

Edwin Uceta isn’t the frontrunner for saves in Tampa (yet). There have been rumors of Tampa shopping Fairbanks, and that would open the door for Uceta. However, even if they hang on to Uceta, Fairbanks is unfortunately a mainstay on the Injured List, and also has struggled to pitch in cold weather due to Raynaud’s Syndrome. So Uceta could alleviate that issue early on for Tampa. Even if Uceta gets zero saves this season, he will provide elite ratios, and can have win opportunities.

You made it.

Thanks for reading, and I fully expect my league mates to use this list against me, but alas, here I am writing it anyways.

Go follow me on X for my Baseball Bets and Fantasy content @nicksMLBpicks.