2024 MLB Mock Draft
The time is here, all 30 1st round picks, in depth analysis!
Well, folks, the time has come. The College World Series ended last week, where the Tennessee Volunteers took home their first-ever National Title against the Texas A&M Aggies. It’s hardly been a week, and I miss it. But I have one more thing to conquer: my mock draft. As always, this is strictly College Players, as I don’t know much about the prep guys, nor do I have a good feel for how they stack up against college talent. Let’s jump in!
1: Cleveland Guardians
The Pick: Charlie Condon/UTL/Georgia
Still rings true. Talk about winning the lottery. The Guards look like a newly branded group behind Steven Vogt, so really, they’re playing with house money. I see no issue with going with Weatherholt, Bazzana, or Condon here, but I think the 2024 Golden Spikes winner fits this mold the best. You’ve increased your pop as a unit. Why not take one of the best power bats in the draft, with lots of positional versatility, and figure it out once he’s in the system? With a 6’6, 210 frame and smooth but powerful swing, Condon rightfully has earned this spot after breaking the single-season NCAA home run record.
.433/.556/1.009, 1.565 OPS, 37 HR, 78 RBI, 57 BB 41 K
2: Cincinnati Reds
The Pick: Travis Bazzana/2B/Oregon St
Now is the time to sell Johnathan India if you’re the Reds. He struggles consistently but gets hot at times. Then take Bazzana, potentially the best hit tool in the draft, and plug the hole with De La Cruz in 2026. This, to me, would be the most fun fit for Bazzana, and I would love to see him in Cinci. He is the most complete hitter in the draft besides Weatherholt and was the one guy deserving of a leadoff IBB to start a game. His only knock to me is positional value. He is insanely athletic, but he’s a true second-baseman. Sure, you could try to put him in the outfield, but I don’t love that logic. He will be one of the better 2nd basemen defensively in the league.
.407/.568/.911, 1.497 OPS, 28 HR, 66 RBI, 76 BB 37K, 16 SB
3: Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Jac Caglione/1B/Florida
Lots of folks have a pitcher going to CO, but to me, you have to take a bat. Colorado isn’t historically known for developing pitching, so take the best power tool in the draft. Their top prospects hold firm in the outfield, with Nolan Jones and Brenton Doyle currently there, and with guys like Sean Bouchard in the pipeline, I don’t think they add another arm this early. Up the middle, the Rocks are strong with Tovar and Rodgers, and with Ryan McMahon platooning everywhere, a power-hitting first-baseman makes a lot of sense here. Kris Bryant may be approaching the time to hang up the spikes, and The 1st-team All-American might be the answer. I could see Weatherholt here to take over 2nd or 3rd, but Montero’s struggles give a clear path for Jac. Not to mention, he plays a mean 1B. He cut down the swing-and-miss by a TON from ‘23-’24, so that won’t be held against him this year, only elevating his stock.
.419/.544/.875, 1.419 OPS, 35 HR, 72 RBI, 58 BB, 26K
4: Oakland A’s
The Pick: JJ Weatherholt/IF/West Virginia
My initial thought was for the A’s to grab another pitcher here. I’ve had a change of heart, given how far away they are from being winners again. They have some really fun and young, talented guys that are breaking onto the scene in Gelof, Soderstrom, Langeliers, and Butler. While an injury set him back around 30 games, he was once regarded as a consensus 1.01. The most complete hitter in the draft and a sweet swing from the left side. Preseason rumors of Weatherholt taking significant reps at SS, and I think you can slot him anywhere in the infield, and he’ll succeed. Like we saw with Jacob Wilson last year, the A’s need a pro-ready bat, and this is the best option.
.331/.472/.589, 1.061OPS, 8HR, 30 RBI
5: Chicago White Sox
The Pick: Braden Montgomery/OF/Texas A&M
The White Sox have made up some excellent prospect ground in the Cease trade, and with rumors swirling about both Crochet and Robert being on the block, the Southside is starting from scratch. A switch-hitting OF with tons of pop would be a good start to replace the pieces and recover from some of the ground they’ve lost. Definitely better from the left side, but you can swing it well from both. Has some swing-and-miss concerns but is a great athlete with a huge ceiling. He broke his ankle in Omaha, but I don’t anticipate this hurting his stock.
.322/.454/.733 1.187, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 53 BB 59 K
6: Kansas City Royals
The Pick: Chase Burns/RHP/Wake Forest
The Royals have been a very exciting team in 2024 after locking down their SS of the future in Bobby Witt Jr., and Vinnie P has been off to a great start at 1B. I don’t see a ton of positional need for the Royals. Furthermore, they are a legit contender in the AL Central and for a wildcard. Brady Singer is back. Cole Ragens is electric. Why not take a stab at an arm because Seth Lugo can’t do this forever. He probably has the 2nd highest ceiling of any arm in the draft, but he gets hurt due to missing over the heart of the plate too often. Running it up to triple digits with a wipeout slider, the arm talent is undeniable and is one of the best in the draft. Doesn't walk a lot of batters and is a near-pro-ready arm. You may see him in October. I could also see Smith going here. Royals love LHP, and you’d probably see him in October in KC.
10-1, 2.70 ERA, 100 IP, 191 K, 30 BB, .175 B/AVG
7: St Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Hagen Smith/LHP/Arkansas
Despite Burns having a higher ceiling, Hagen Smith is the most pro-ready arm in the 2024 class. Smith is coming off a season where he broke the NCAA single-season record for K/9 17.3. Made a big jump with the velo from ‘23-’24 from low 90’s, now with the ability to run triple digits with nasty offspeed. No question the Cards' pitching staff is aging, and Sonny Gray could get moved this year. This would be an amazing building block for the 2025 staff.
9-2, 2.04 ERA, 84 IP, 161 K, 34 BB, .144 B/AVG.
8: Los Angeles Angels
The Pick: James Tibbs III/OF/Florida St
With Mike Trout starting to slow down, taking an outfielder makes a lot of sense. There are rumors that the Halos want to save money at this spot, which could mean a prep player or someone projected lower, like Christian Moore or Ryan Waldtschmidt. I believe Tibbs is the best fit, and can play either corner spot and has an elite feel for the zone. The definition of a gap-to-gap hitter but more than enough juice to drive the ball out of the yard. Biasedly, he is one of my favorites in the class, so a note to the Angels: please don’t ruin him.
.363/.488/.777, 1.264 OPS, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 58 BB, 37 K
9: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pick: Nick Kurtz/1B/Wake Forest
Undoubtedly, the Pirates have been drafting exceptionally well with their young arms in the pipeline and those who have already cracked the MLB scene. Unless you live under a rock, I’m referring to Paul Skenes. The farm is loaded with arms, so I anticipate a position player. Kurtz is probably the most complete hitter left on the board and is a great spot to pounce. Another guy with an elite feel for the zone, with some serious pop. While this may have been a down year, his numbers from ‘23-’24 were fairly comparable. People seem to be down on Kurtz because he was projected to win the Golden Spikes in the preseason and wasn’t a finalist. By no means was it a disappointing year for the Demon Deac.
.306/.531/.763, 1.294 OPS, 22 HR, 57 RBI, 78 BB, 42 K
10: Washington Nationals
The Pick: Christian Moore/IF/Tennessee
After taking Dylan Crews at 1.02 in 2023, a great grab would be the cornerstone of the National Championship winner Tennessee Volunteers. One of the most intimidating hitters at the college level, big pop with not a ton of swing and miss concern. The Nats could go a few different directions here, but this would be a great addition to a team that needs a lot of help from across the board.
.375/.451/.797, 1.248, 34 HR, 74 RBI, 38 BB, 49 K
11: Detroit Tigers
The Pick: Cam Smith/IF/Florida St
No hiding the Tigers need a lot of help on offense. With Tork not panning out so far, adding a solid bat is the best course of action. I could see Moore, Kurtz, or Tibbs getting snagged here, depending on how the earlier picks go. However, Smith is a gap-gap bat with a lot of XBH potential and some decent HR upside. With a quiet swing from the right side, he should be able to adjust to pro-level pitching rather quickly. He would be a great addition to the Tigers' infield, with a declining Javy and other holes.
.387/.488/.654, 1.142 OPS, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 44 BB, 48 K
12: Boston Red Sox
The Pick: Trey YesavageI/RHP/East Carolina
Last year, I projected that the Sox would take Hurston Waldrep and was beyond excited about the fit. I’m back projecting another arm, one of my favorites in the class with the former Pirate. Yesavage was Mr. Consistent over his career and flashed dominance week in and week out. A true over-the-top delivery, he hides the ball extremely well with quick arm action. Sitting with his fastball in the low-mid 90s with the ability to run it up to 98, and with a big frame, this can easily be a high 90s starter in a short time. He primarily uses a hard slider, bordering on a cutter as his primary off-speed, sitting mid to upper 80s and is a nightmare for right-handed bats. Yesavage uses a splitter with a great WHIFF rate and a low 80s curveball to round out his arsenal. A pure four-pitch mix guy with a huge ceiling. Please draft him Boston. He’d be a great fit in the new system of great starters.
11-1, 2.03 ERA, 93.1 IP, 145 K, 32 BB, .154 B/AVG
13: San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Brody Brecht/RHP/Iowa
Realistically, this is a spot for a prep arm, so instead, we’ll enter our first draft reach. With the Blake Snell deal looking bad for the Giants and many young hitters off to a great start, this is the perfect pick for an arm. While it’s probably a slot value reach, it certainly isn’t a talent reach. Brecht has the highest ceiling of any arm, and the former football player at Iowa can run it up to 104 with a slider that disappears off the face of the earth. The big knock on Brecht is control, which he certainly struggles with, as we’ve seen games lost solely to him walking too many hitters. But in the second half of the year, he was nails with control. I’m surprised he’s not higher on most boards because the second half of the year should’ve put him back into the top-15 convo, and here he is.
4-3, 3.33 ERA, 78.1 IP, 128 K, 49 BB, .165 B/AVG
14: Chicago Cubs
The Pick: Seaver King/IF/Wake Forest
With Chicago struggling mightily offensively but the outfield holding solid in Bellinger, Suzuki, and a growing PCA, the Cubs could use an infielder with the offensive struggles from Dansby, defensive struggles for Morel, and overall underwhelming from Hoerner. Take the Swiss Army Knife from Wake. King bumped up from D2 to Wake this year and was supposed to be all-world. He struggled, but the talent is clearly there. King has some crazy bat speed and runs well. I think he’ll be a project in the minors, but with some money and control wrapped up in the current MIF, this may be a nice developmental piece down the line.
.308/.377/.577, .954 OPS, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 25 BB, 34 K
15: Seattle Mariners
The Pick: Jurrangelo Cintje/SHP/Mississippi St
The Mississippi St Saturday starter just happens to be a switch pitcher with the ability to run it up to mid-upper 90s with both arms. This guy just feels like a Mariner with that pitching lab. He profiles better as a reliever at the next level and will fit right into that nasty Seattle pen that always seems to pump out quality arms. This may be a reach at 15, but this is just a gut-feeling pick. I can see it now.
8-2, 3.67 ERA, 90.2 IP, 113 K, 30 BB, .211 B/AVG
16: Miami Marlins
The Pick: Ryan Waldschmidt/OF/Kentucky
Similarly to the A’s, the Marlins need a lot of low-risk, high-floor players that will be ready soon. Unfortunately, due to their 2023 record, they find themselves in the middle of the first round. With an effortless swing, Waldschmidt was extremely consistent for the Wildcats in 2024, with a lot of XBH potential. Very solid defensively and runs well, will probably swipe a lot of bags at the next level, too. May not have a high ceiling, but definitely an excellent prospect to start building the farm around, which they desperately need.
.333/.469/.610, 1.079 OPS, 14 HR, 46 RBI, 41 BB, 45 K, 25 SB
17: Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick: Vance Honeycutt/CF/North Carolina
My favorite player in the 2024 Draft is a true 5-tool talent and by far the best defense outfielder in college baseball. Honeycutt has freakish talent, but there are some big concerns about his swing and miss. The future in Milwaukee is flush with young talent, but the clock is ticking on Yelich defensively and maybe Frelick with Garrett Mitchell returning from injury. I can’t say enough good things about Honeycutt. He truly has the ability to be one of the most electric players in the league if he gets adequately developed. A glaring 33% K-rate in 2024 needs some work if he wants to make it, and it definitely hurt his draft stock. But he is as talented as anyone in the league when he’s hot.
.318/.410/.714 1.124 OPS, 28 HR, 70 RBI, 36 BB, 83 K, 28 SB
18: Tampa Bay Rays
The Pick: Tommy White/IF/LSU
Tommy “Tanks” White has been on the draft radar since his standout freshman year at NC St where he broke the single-season record for HRs by a freshman. Now, he finds himself amid a loaded draft class. I’m unsure of where he lands on most people’s list, but the Rays draft strategy sticks well with a guy like White. They tend to target guys with 1-2 standout tools and figure out the rest down the line. White’s standout tool is his power. White crushes the ball, and with really good bat-to-ball skills, he should be able to produce lots of pop at the pro level. He is very limited defensively and profiles as a 1B or DH at the next level. He flashes some K-concern, but he could be a really good piece for the Rays to build on.
.330/.401/.638, 1.039 OPS, 24 HR, 70 RBI, 27 BB, 38 K
19: New York Mets
The Pick: Carson Benge/OF/Oklahoma St
I could easily see Benge and Honeycutt switched at 17 and 19 because Benge is the slightly safer option in terms of development. Don’t get it twisted; Benge has great gap-to-gap ability, increasing power year over year, and plays a solid corner outfield with a strong arm. Tons of XBH potential, and I think the Mets will go for the best college outfield bat left on the board here. Excellent feel for the zone. The K% did go up from '23-’24 but draws a ton of walks and gets deep into counts consistently.
.335/.444/.665, 1.109, 24 2B, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 49 BB, 51 K, 10 SB
20: Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Dakota Jordan/OF/Mississippi St
No secret the Blue Jays are struggling and need to start over with some young talent. A handful of guys could go here, but something tells me the power-hitting outfielder will be a great fit in Toronto. Some glaring swing-and-miss issues, as he had a 35% K%, but the ability to drive the ball out of the yard is tantalizing. Tends to be a polarizing prospect thanks to the K%, but I think you can look past it with some help to a quiet swing that produces a lot of pop.
.354/.459/.671, 1.129 OPS, 20 HR, 72 RBI, 44 BB, 84 K
21: Minnesota Twins
The Pick: Jacob Cozart/C/North Carolina St
This will probably be an unpopular pick, and most people are in consensus that Walker Janek or Malcolm Moore will be the first catcher off the board. I believe Cozart is the best catcher in the class, with a sweet swing from the left side and is very compact. Shows great bat-to-ball skill with solid pop to the pull side. Cozart is athletic behind the dish despite having a big frame at 6’3, 225, and good arm strength. Grades out as average to slightly above average defensively, but the catcher premium certainly isn’t what it used to be.
.305/.437/.601, 1.038 OPS, 19 HR, 54 RBI, 52 BB, 48 K
22: Baltimore Orioles
The Pick: Billy Amick/3B/Tennessee
The Orioles add to a loaded farm system and young talent pool full of former college bats with a 55-hit 55-power college bat in Billy Amick. Missed some time in 2024 due to injury, but plays an excellent 3B with great offensive tools and a very high ceiling. He doesn’t draw a lot of walks but swings the bat well, more of a “why not?” kind of pick.
.306/.387/.639, 1.026 OPS, 23 HR, 65 RBI, 29 BB, 53 K
23: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick: Jonathan Santucci/LHP/Duke
If you follow us, you know how I feel about Santucci. Genuinely one of, if not my favorite, college baseball players. Also missed some time late in the year due to injury, hurting the Blue Devils postseason chances. He won’t blow guys away with the velo sitting low to mid-90s, but he has a disgusting changeup and slider, the definition of a ‘pitcher, not a thrower.’ Selfishly as a Dodger fan, I want this badly. They’ll more than likely take a prep arm because that’s what the Dodgers typically do, but I’d rather them take a polished arm with an excellent ceiling if the velo comes in just a little more.
6-1, 3.41 ERA, 58 IP, 90 K, 36 BB, .188 B/AVG
24: Atlanta Braves
The Pick: Malcolm Moore/C/Stanford
Moore finds himself as one of the youngest college players in the draft and is a bat-first catcher. He crushes the ball, and despite his early struggles in 2024, statistically, the batted ball data was great. A simple swing and load that should translate at the next level, with solid bat-to-ball skill and not a lot of chase. There continue to be questions on whether or not he can stick behind the plate and me be a candidate to make the move to 1B at the pro level, but he has a good arm and is athletic back there. My only concern with him at the plate is that he struggles with plus offspeed pitches. Scouts love the way he projects, and the batted ball data backs it up; the numbers aren’t sexy, but definitely a solid piece to add to the farm.
.244/.414/.553, .976 OPS, 16 HR, 37 RBI, 44 BB, 35 K
25: San Diego Padres
The Pick: Jared Thomas/OF/Texas
Jared Thomas is definitely a sleeper in this class. The Padres have been drafting extremely well the last few years, and Thomas is the next piece of the puzzle. Standing at 6’2 190, the left-handed hitter is contact-oriented but has solid raw power, which he hasn’t fully tapped into in games yet. Thomas doesn’t chase or swing and miss much but has an aggressive approach at the dish. Won’t strike out a lot, but won’t walk a lot, either. He profiles more as a 1B at the next level, where he plays great defensively but is also solid in the OF, so that you can slot him at either.
.349/.434/.635, 1.069 IOS, 16 HR, 47 RBI, 31 BB, 60 K, 17 SB
26: New York Yankees
The Pick: Blake Burke/1B/Tenneessee
With 70-grade raw power, Burke can smash baseballs. 1B seems to be a position the Yankees may need down the line with Rizzo aging, and selling out on a power tool in the small yard might be the best course of action. We did see some weekends where he struggled in the avg. department, but he doesn’t strike out as much as you’d typically see with guys with this profile. At 6’3 235, Bruke generates big-time exit velos, while using the whole field in a refined approach over his college career. Below average defensively, but if the HR upside comes through, who cares?
.379/.449/.702, 1.151 OPS, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 35 BB, 48 K
27: Philadelphia Phillies
The Pick: Peyton Stoval/2B/Arkansas
Adding a bat with elite upside is never a wrong move. The Arkansas 2B plays an average defense, but being a 2B, that’s all you need. Once projected as a 1st round pick out of HS, he passed and took the college route, where he’s struggled at times. The tools are clearly there at the plate, good pop from the left side and solid bat-to-ball skills. He has the ability to use all fields, but I believe he’s very underrated in this draft.
28: Houston Astros
The Pick: Mike Sirota/OF/Northeastern
Once in my Top-10, Sirota’s stock has fallen a tad with a slight drop in production. An imposing all-around athlete who can change the game in the field and at the dish. A compact and quiet swing with probably the best approach of any prospect in the draft, with a minuscule chase rate. Potential for a 20/20 guy at the pro level as the power continues to develop, a safer version of Vance Honeycutt. Can easily play any outfield spot and high floor prospect.
.298/.473/.513, .986 OPS, 7 HR, 38 RBI, 59 BB, 48 K, 19 SB
29: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Pick: Ryan Johnson/RHP/Dallas Baptist
Ryan Johnson is one of the draft's most intriguing and underrated arms. He has a funky delivery and great stuff but not overwhelming velocity. On average, he sits 93-94 but can run it up to 100. A nasty slider is Johnson’s bread and butter; throwing it near half the time creates a ton of swing-and-miss. He does offer a changeup and curveball, but neither are pro-level pitches yet. Johnson is no stranger to being a workhorse and rarely walks hitter, offering some great control upside, maybe profiling more as a reliever at the next level. Arizona has done a solid job developing young arms, and Johnson feels like he’ll fit the DBack mold nicely.
11-3, 2.29 ERA, 106 IP, 151 K, 14 BB, .212 B/AVG
30: Texas Rangers
The Pick: Walker Janek/C/Sam Houston St
I’m firm on the Rangers going with a catcher in the last pick of the first round. It will be whoever is left of Moore, Janek, and Cozart. Janek will most definitely stick behind the plate as a pro, but he is not incredible defensively. He has a good arm and solid athleticism for the position, and he runs well for a catcher, going 29/36 in 3 years as a Bearcat. He shows great bat speed with good pull-side power and potential for 20 HR upside.
.368/.480/.714, 1.193 OPS, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 40 BB, 45 K, 13 SB
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