2024 Mets Draft Review
Breaking down each of the 20 players the Mets selected in the 2024 MLB Draft!
The 2024 MLB Draft has come and gone. For draft junkies like myself, Christmas in July is a very real thing. This was the first Mets draft for new brass members David Stearns, Kris Gross, and others, which is very exciting for many fans, including myself.
Before we get started, I want to give a quick primer to anyone who is not completely familiar with how the MLB Draft operates. Every pick in the top 10 rounds is given a slot value. Every pick a team has in the top 10 rounds adds up to their bonus pool. Their bonus pool is how much money they can spend to sign all their draft picks. Players do not automatically get the slot value for their pick. They negotiate their signing bonus before and/or after the draft. All picks in rounds 11-20 are allotted $150k; anything above $150k counts toward a team’s bonus pool. Additionally, teams are allowed a 5% overage on their bonus pool. For example, the Mets’ bonus pool is $9,572,200, a 5% overage on that is $478,610. Add those together, and the Mets can actually spend up to $10,050,810. This allows teams to get crafty with their draft picks to try and save money up and down the board. Those are the basics, so let’s keep moving forward!
There was a bit of a theme I noticed that seemed to be a new Mets draft strategy. They attacked a lot of “stuff” pitchers. Guys that post high spin rates elicit carry-on their fastballs, and/or above-average breaking balls or “out” pitches.
Recent Mets draft classes seemed to lack some of these traits and it showed in the lack of true development. Mets fans haven’t seen many successful farm-developed arms except for Jacob deGrom. As much as it may not be the best thing for the game of baseball, velocity is king. It’s not everything, but it is king. Velocity absolutely allows a pitcher to pitch over the plate more and allows a greater margin of error. Without it, pitchers must have plus command to ensure they stay out of danger zones. Put like this, it just feels like the Mets have been at an inherent disadvantage in developing their pitchers. deGrom, the previous example, as most Mets fans know, showcased elite command and followed that up by consistently increasing velocity.
Lastly, pitchers with plus stuff tend to fare better in translation. Good command in college doesn’t automatically translate to good command in MLB and vice versa. Bryce Miller and David Peterson are great examples of this. Peterson posted a 3.6% walk rate in his final year at Oregon. Touted as an elite control prospect, Peterson has yet to register a full MLB season with a walk rate below 10% (currently 9.9% in 2024). Bryce Miller, on the other hand, posted a 14% walk rate in his final year at Texas A&M. In his 240.1 career innings since 2023, Miller has a well above average 5.7% career walk rate (MLB average in 2023 for SP was 7.9%). These are just a couple examples, but the concept rings true.
Additionally, College baseball and minor league baseball are different. Minor league baseball and major league baseball are different. From getting drafted out of college to reaching MLB, a pitcher will use three different types of baseballs.
This is some insight into my thought process and I was very happy with how this draft turned out. Many pick evaluations will include my tweets I posted during each round. Every pick (excluding HS) will include data provided by Antonio Urquídez (@Antoni0u on X). For context, the colored numbers will represent Division I league percentiles. Let’s briefly go over each of the 20 players the Mets drafted!
The Picks:
Round 1 Pick 19: Carson Benge OF - Oklahoma State University - 6’1” 184 lbs.
Slot Value: $4.22 million
Benge was one of two players I truly wanted in the first round. It was between him and Vance Honeycutt who was taken by the Orioles with the 22nd pick. Benge has true 5-tool potential. He has a strong hit tool with great contact rates, hits for power, and is an athletic mover in the outfield. Once a 2-Way player, Benge was averaging low 90s, topping mid 90s on the bump. He almost certainly won’t pitch with the Mets long term, especially after he had Tommy John surgery in 2022. Benge’s frame is one of the more standout factors of his profile. Despite elite exit velocities, he has plenty of room to add more strength and develop more power.
The two major flags that can be addressed with Benge are getting more out front at contact and reducing his ground ball rate. While the other is pulling the ball more for more damage. He had great results without pulling the ball in college but there is a lot of untapped potential with Benge even if it may not look that way!
Round 2 Pick 46: Jonathan Santucci LHP - Duke University - 6’2” 205 lbs.
Slot Value: $2.03 million
In the stuff example I provided above, Santucci fits into the Bryce Miller side of things. A 14% walk rate at Duke this year, Santucci also exhibited his stuff with a 35% K rate. He’s mainly been a two-pitch pitcher to this point. It’s a four seam fastball, slider and changeup. The change-up usage is below 10%, though it flashes good shapes and results. He finds his success by tunneling the fastball & slider, and it works. Both are plus pitches, with many evaluators giving them each a 60 grade. The slider provided lethal results which can be seen below.
Santucci has a legitimate upside as a major league starter as long as he tones down the walks. He’s a Duke product, so there is a clear level of intelligence, and he’s been praised for his makeup and character. I would bet the Mets pitching lab gets him where he needs to be. There is a lot to like about the profile, and while I haven’t heard it, if you squint enough, it looks a lot like a less-rich man’s Hagen Smith in multiple ways.
Round 3 Pick 82: Nate Dohm RHP - Mississippi State University - 6’4” 210 lbs.
Slot Value: $934.80k
The Mets selected Dohm with the 82nd pick, but he was ranked significantly lower than that across most all draft rankings. That does not mean it’s a bad pick, it means the Mets are saving money on the pick. Dohm realistically was ranked so low because of injury.
In 29.1 innings, Dohm threw 412 pitches. That’s less than 15 pitches/inning which is fairly efficient. He got injured on 4/7 in a game against Georgia, but returned on 5/14. Once he returned, Dohm threw 5 innings across three appearances.
His stuff is electric, and some have noted that it looked like a first-round caliber arm before the injury. He filled up the zone walking only four batters all season (29.1 innings) and none after returning from injury. It appears the feel is still there. Going back to the control example in the intro, Dohm exhibits elite control but also elite caliber stuff as well. If he stays healthy, this could be a fantastic blend of both. Regardless, the stuff is there.
Dohm figures to be built back up as a starter, and depending on how much money the Mets save on this pick, he could be a major steal in the draft.
Round 4 Pick 111: Eli Serrano III OF - North Carolina State University - 6’5” 201 lbs.
Slot Value: $656.40k
Serrano III is going to be a project for the Mets. He’s the big, strong, fast profile, but his present frame is lacking the strength. The contact rates are exceptional, he’s very selective and doesn’t swing too much. Maintaining great contact rates and eye while adding strength and power to his profile could lead to an above-average MLB player. Serrano is a guy to be excited about, but he may command more than his slot value since he’s a draft-eligible sophomore.
Round 5 Pick 144: Trey Snyder SS - Liberty North HS (MO) - 6’1” 197 lbs.
Slot Value: $476.20k
Trey Snyder was hovering around a top 100 overall prospect in this year's draft class, depending on which publication you look at. Snyder is a great athlete and his movements are fluid with adjustability due to his athleticism. Some believe the athleticism will allow him to stay up the middle in pro ball while others think he’ll have to move to third base where his strong arm will fit just fine. He is pretty filled out already, so I wouldn’t think Snyder adds too much weight to the point where he loses a step and has to move off shortstop.
Overall, Snyder is a smart hitter and his athleticism continues to show up in his swing. He sports a leg kick, which naturally can cause timing issues in younger players, but he does a great job of hitting the ball to all fields. After adding more strength this spring, his showing improved exit velocities all around.
Trey Snyder figures to be a well-rounded ballplayer and his value will increase if he stomps any question of him sticking at shortstop. Taken in the 5th round, he will almost certainly get more than slot value. He could very easily get double slot value or more. His compensation likely comes from just about all the savings from Dohm and Collins who is up next.
Round 6 Pick 173: Corey Collins 1B - University of Georgia - 6’3” 236 lbs.
Slot Value: $363.10k
Collins has been highly touted back to his prep days. He had a good, but not outstanding junior year, and proceeded to really breakout during his senior campaign. He made major plate discipline gains, cutting his K rate from 18% to 13% and raised his walk rate from 15% to 22%. Additionally, Collins smashed the ball all year. He elevated, and pulled the ball almost as much as anybody.
I have some worries about Collins capitalizing on younger competition, but the 2024 data is just about as sound as it gets. He was very selective, hit well against top of the scale velocity (94+ mph) and didn’t chase too much. His contact rates could improve but other than that, it’s more a wait and see approach with Collins. Is he legit, or was he ambushing younger less experienced competition. There is reason to believe he is for real, so a significantly under slot senior sign in the 6th could be good value.
Round 7 Pick 203: Will Watson RHP - University of Southern California - 6’1” 180 lbs.
Slot Value: $283.80k
Watson was a swingman for the Trojans this year, starting 9 of his 16 appearances. Walks plagued him and became an issue for his overall performance. Being able to zone his pitches more makes him a likely starting pitching prospect. He’s got the goods to do it too. Watson is the first of a run on hard throwing RHPs the Mets would go on to select.
I want to start with the changeup. Again, thrown hard (86.4 mph avg. in the 98th percentile) Watson gets an absurd 20 inches of horizontal break on it. No surprise it has the best whiff and chase rates of his whole arsenal.
Watson isn’t big, but he’s got an electric arm. It’s reasonable to think there is a little bit of projection left to his 180 lb frame. Watson is clay to be molded in some sense. I think the Mets play the long game with Watson and allow him to start until he proves it can or cannot work.
Round 8 Pick 233: Ryan Lambert RHP - University of Oklahoma - 6’3” 222 lbs.
Slot Value: $226.00k
There’s hard throwing relievers, then there’s Ryan Lambert. His fastball and slider both ranked in the 100th percentile for average and max velocity. None of his pitches performed as well as you’d might expect given the velocity, but the 13.2% walk rate is evident he wasn’t getting them in the zone much. The slider struggled to get chases and whiffs.
While the fastball was great, I’m not quite sure I’d go as far as say the results posted below were elite. Lambert also boasts a cutter averaging 89 mph, maxing 91.6 mph. MLB average sliders are in this range, sliders that grade as plus on stuff+ models usually are harder than average or contain more sweep than average.
Getting him in the zone is the most important thing. There is considerable upside if the pitching lab can connect with him and get this done.
Round 9 Pick 263: Jaxon Jenkin RHP - University of Houston - 6’5” 190 lbs.
Slot Value: $196.70k
Boy do I love this pick. Jelkin had Tommy John surgery earlier in his college career but was back for the start of the 2024 season. He made his first seven starts of the year, before being shut down for the remainder of the season due to arm fatigue. Jelkin was great for the Cougars in his 34.1 innings.
Jenkins has considerable room for growth in his frame and projects to add more velocity. He already has top of the scale velocity so that should become a big plus for him. Of course, building him up, making him stronger and hoping durability is not an issue in the future will be what the team cares most about with Jelkin. If he gains weight, there is no telling if his stuff gets better, or by how much. Jenkin could have the most upside of all the later round picks the Mets selected.
Stearns, Gross, and Co. capitalized on high upside arms that didn’t throw too many innings or were injured this year. Hence why some reports may sound a little redundant.
Round 10 Pick 293: Brendan Girton RHP - University of Oklahoma - 6’1” 217 lbs.
Slot Value: $184.30k
Another hard-throwing OU reliever, Girton has three pitches. It’s a senior sign in the 10th round to save slot money. The way things stand, his 16.3% walk rate is more than double the MLB league average. He can’t start like that. He’d also have to develop a fourth pitch, whether it’s a changeup or sinker at least. Realistically, this looks like a take what you see kind of pick. He’s a hard thrower. If he can refine and zone his pitches enough, it could be a lethal bullpen option down the line.
The fastball jumps off the page. It’s averaging over 94 mph with 17 inches of IVB, from a well below average 5.3 ft. release height (MLB average is anywhere between 5.8-5.10). The cutter isa perfect bridge pitch between the fastball and the slider to help tunnel his entire arsenal. Especially as a senior sign in the 10th round which is more about saving a good chunk of money, this is a great upside pick.
Round 11 Pick 323: Nick Roselli 2B - Binghamton University - 5’10” 200 lbs.
Allotted Value: $150.00k
Roselli does not have a carrying tool. He does just about everything well. The one piece of his game the Mets will look to shore up is his chase rate, and by association, pitch recognition most likely. While Roselli lacks any real holes in his game from a performance standpoint, he lacks experience against top competition. He appears to have struggled in summer ball with wood bats. It’s unclear if his impact and power with a wood bat is far worse than if he used a metal bat.
He’s already been picked so there’s no point worrying about it, instead, go figure out a solution. Roselli is a gamer, and I believe he finds a way to carve out a role for himself, wherever he plays. He’s definitely a second baseman but the chance to get better defensively is on the table. Roselli is a gamer, I love the kind of player he displays and has a great work ethic from what I’ve seen.
Round 12 Pick 353: Ethan Lanthier RHP - University of Kansas - 6’5” 230 lbs.
Allotted Value: $150.00k
Lanthier has been a big breakout arm this year. He was great on the cape last summer and transferred to Kansas this spring. He was great for the Jayhawks but further refinement with a big league organization would be expected. Velocity could come with that, I wouldn’t be surprised by that.
Lanthier’s fastball boasts some impressive traits, albeit from a higher arm slot. Some of the advantages of his pitch shape will likely be mitigated by that. Regardless, this phenomenal tweet by “@steelejack12”, comparing Lanthier’s fastball in the Cape Cod Baseball League during the summer 2023 season to MLB pitchers highlights the strengths of the pitch. To be honest, his slider could be an even better pitch. A sweeper with good vertical break and plenty of sweep, it could be a great weapon alongside the fastball.
Round 13 Pick 383: R.J. Gordon RHP - University of Oregon - 6’0” 195 lbs.
Allotted Value: $150.00k
R.J. Gordon ended up being probably the most interesting pick to me in the whole draft. A starter at Oregon, he has a starters arsenal and showed durability. He didn’t throw less than 85 pitches in a single appearance all season. As I note in my tweet below, he has good stuff, but his shapes/stuff from pitch to pitch varied greatly according to reports I read. I do not think there’s much projection left, if any, but there could be an uptick in velocity if he irons out any mechanical issues that helps him become more consistent. It’s unlikely but not impossible.
Ultimately, Gordon can and most likely will be tried as a starter once he starts his pro career. Do not expect him to pitch the remainder of this year after his significant workload at Oregon. Additionally, I think the pitching lab will work with him extensively to figure out the consistency of his pitch shapes. As he plays at higher levels, variation in pitch shapes will end up with hanging breaking balls or fastballs leaking over the middle of the plate. A big league team needs to minimize these mistakes and while they do happen, they are detrimental to relievers.
Ultimately, my guy thinks Gordon ends up a reliever. A guy that can come in for an inning or two and just empty the tank. His velocity will increase because he throws with more effort for a shorter appearance and his stuff could become better because of it. The strike throwing and suboptimal walk rates wouldn’t be as much of an issue if he transitions to the pen as well.
Round 14 Pick 413: Tanner Witt RHP - University of Texas - 6’6” 230 lbs.
Allotted Value: $150.00k
Witt might have the most upside of any college senior pitcher in the draft. The likelihood of reaching that potential is a different question. He had Tommy John surgery in 2022, worked back to be able to pitch in six games at the end of the 2023 season. Starting the year healthy, Witt pitched his final game of 2024 on 3/10. Witt hasn’t been healthy enough or good enough to be a durable starter for Texas in a couple years, if not ever. That’s not what the Mets are buying here.
I would expect the Mets to have a very specific vision for Witt. A plan to restore him to his former self. He underwent an operation this spring to clean up scar tissue from his TJ surgery. The hope is to get the big righty back throwing harder, and make him a lot more like the first round talent he was coming out of high school.
If they can do that, this is another guy that is a gem on day 3. Health will be a determining factor but for the most part, Witt really hasn’t had any issues outside his elbow. If the cleaning of the scar tissue is the end of this saga, there is no reason to expect him to have other issues going forward. Incredible upside pick for the Mets here.
Round 15 Pick 443: Owen Woodward RHP - University of Houston - 6’3” 200 lbs.
Allotted Value: $150.00k
I really liked the Woodward pick. He was a predominately a reliever for the Cougars throughout his two years with them, making a couple starts. How he builds back up from his UCL injury will determine whether he has a chance to start or not. Odds are, if he comes back close to the way he was pre-injury, the Mets can try him as a starter. There’s some projectability here and if he holds his velocity deep into his starts, there is a foundation for a starting pitcher.
Woodward has stuff, his fastball was his best performing pitch. As can be seen by the graphic below, he averaged over 93 mph, but maxed out just below 96. Interesting, but not necessarily bad. The slider looks really good, and while he struggled to have a well above average whiff rate, he had an elite chase rate. The slider is also pretty hard, averaging about 85 and maxing out at 89. The changeup has the makings of a usable third pitch. Despite being one of the hardest changeups in D1 baseball, he was able to kill vertical break while still getting lots of horizontal break. I love the potential that’s here with Woodward, but everything remains up in the air until we see how he comes back from this injury.
This is a lot like Nate Dohm coincidentally (or not?). Woodward suffered a season ending UCL injury on 4/12, just under a week after Dohm suffered his injury. Also like Dohm, Woodward only walked 4 batters all season, recording just a 4.1% walk rate.
Round 16 Pick 473: Josh Blum RHP - University of Southern California - 6’1” 195 lbs.
Allotted Value: $150.00k
There is something to say about a closer in a power 5 conference that was a reliable weapon for his team. That is what Blum was to the USC Trojans. He got better every year, culminating into a dominant junior season that saw him post a 1.87 ERA, .154 opponent batting average, 32% K rate, 8% walk rate and 10 saves for the Trojans in 33.2 innings pitched. Below is some minimal pitch data courtesy of “@uscbaseballdata” on X. You can find various posts about Blum and pitch shapes from the link in their handle.
Blum comes equipped with a fastball with average to fringe above average spin rates, above average induced vertical break from a lower release height. His best offering is most likely his sweeper. It’s a wicked frisbee slider in the 79-82 mph range, consistently registering spin rates roughly in the 2,600-2,800 range on average. The graphic below shows different data, but I believe since there are only 31 tracked cutters, many of his cutters were registered as sliders. It makes sense why the velocity is up and the vertical and horizontal break differs greatly from the data provided by USC Baseball themselves.
The Mets have lacked guys that can come into high leverage situations and shutdown the opposition. While Blum wouldn’t pitch for the Mets this year, or probably next year even, it’s promising to see them draft a player with that kind of track record.
Round 17 Pick 503: Jacoby Long OF - University of Miami (FL) - 6’1” 200 lbs.
Allotted Value: $150.00k
Jacoby Long was not exactly the type of bat I was expecting to see in the 17th round, but nonetheless, I am quite happy with the pick. He’s a well rounded player and has a decent shot to make it to the big leagues based on his speed and defensive ability. He posted an 11% K rate this year which is already impressive enough, but even more so since he had one of the worst chase rates in all of D1 baseball.
His 32.8% O-Swing (Out of zone Swings) or chase rate, ranked in the 6th percentile. The bat to ball skills are there, but the sheer lack of impact and power is not enough to get past the chase. To reach his potential as a defensive specialist and contact oriented hitter, he needs to cut down on his chase rate and recognize breaking balls and offspeed pitches better. He performed well against fastballs, even 94+ mph fastballs, but didn’t hit them hard (as expected). Getting a big leaguer, even a role player or career bench bat out of the 17th round would be a complete win. However, that requires him practically reaching his full potential.
Long is an interesting profile. I wouldn’t really stick a comp on many guys, but so there is no confusion, think of him as a Harrison Bader type profile. He is big and filled out, but doesn’t impact the ball, similarly to Bader who is 6’0” 210 lbs. Don’t expect him to run as well or be as elite of a defender as Bader, but he’s a quick, glove-first outfielder that’s filled out without much impact at the plate like Bader.
Round 18 Pick 533: Jace Hampson RHP - Lynnwood HS (WA) - 6’1” 175 lbs.
Allotted Value: $150.00k
Hampson, from all I could determine on X, seems to prefer being a shortstop, or at least a 2-Way player. It doesn’t mean he actually prefers being a position player, but that’s what the evidence I found supports. A very important thing to note is that the Mets announced him as a RHP, not a 2-Way player.
According to a “Prep Baseball WA” tweet, Hampson sat around 88-91 mph on his fastball in an outing in March after coming into the game from shortstop. Hampson is an athletic mover with a short arm action but an inconsistent landing with his front foot. There is arm talent here, projectability and overall a lot of clay to mold. Frankly, I can’t help but think this is the one guy that is more likely than not to attend school.
Round 19 Pick 563: Frank Elissalt RHP - Nova Southeastern University - 6’2” 210 lbs.
Allotted Value: $150.00k
There is not too much I can say about Elissalt. Most of it is outlined in my tweet below. The second figure will show there isn’t much available data on him so I am going off presumptions I’ve seen when looking around. He’s posted high spin rates on his fastball in the MLB draft league, and one would imagine he sports good breaking ball spin as well, but I cannot confirm that. He has traits of the fastball and great results, that is a sure thing. A D2 pitcher, I would expect Elissalt’s walk rate to regress as he faces hitters with better pitch recognition and contact rates than he faced in college.
Round 20 Pick 593: Adam Haight SS - Cedar Park Christian HS (WA) - 6’2” 175 lbs.
Allotted Value: $150.00k
Haight might have been my favorite pick of the draft. It was apparent to me, while some may have disagreed, that the Mets had roughly $750k left to spend for their 20th pick. With the expectation that Jace Hampson wouldn’t sign, the Mets can use all that excess money to go after a higher profile prep player. They did exactly that, in announcing Haight as a 2-Way player. This shows that they think he has true potential on either side of the ball and are willing to let him work on both if he signs.
Many think he will not sign and attend Oregon State University. I believe that if the Mets had as much leftover money as I think they do, they would be targeting a prep player they believe will sign. As was established before, many negotiations happen before the draft as well. It should also be noted that a significant number of high school players informally withdrew from the draft after day 2 (after 10th round) knowing teams wouldn’t commit to their price tag.
Looks like Roselli answered a lot of questions.