2024 AL & NL MVP Predictions
2024 AL & NL MVP Predictions
Who's going to take home the most prestigious regular season awards this season in Major League Baseball?
The great game of baseball hasn’t seen a player win back-to-back Most Valuble Player awards in over a decade. Miguel Cabrera has been the most recent player to do it (2012-2013), and now he’s ridden off into the sunset.
Yes, Shohei Ohtani took home the AL award in 2023 and 2021, while Mike is in the same boat for 2014, 2016, and 2019. Yet, despite their historic runs, the Angels superstars haven’t won the award in back-to-back seasons.
In fact, 8 different players in the National League have reached baseball’s peak over the last 8 seasons. The Senior Circuit hasn’t seen a player win consecutive times since Pujols (‘08-’09).
By this logic, I’ll be continuing the trend and predict two new MLB players to bestow the MVP award in 2024.
American League: Corey Seager (TEX)
But Sam, Seager does have an MVP award!
Yeah, the Rangers shortstop took home World Series MVP this past year, but has never earned a regular season MVP nod.
With that being said, Seager finished second in the American League MVP race, behind a certain two-way sensation, despite playing just 119 games in Texas. One can only imagine how good his numbers would have looked if he trotted out for the full 162 slate.
A storybook season in just his second year as a Ranger, it seems as if Seager collected everything BUT the AL MVP award in 2023.
He slashed .327/.390/.623, clubbing 33 home runs, while driving in 96 and posting an OPS of 1.013. Seager played an above average shortstop as well, collecting 1 OAA all while mashing the baseball.
When it mattered most, Seager excelled. Over the course of 17 playoff games, he helped the Rangers capture the franchises first World Series championship by hitting 6 homers, with 12 RBI, and a 1.133 OPS. The twenty-nine-year-old had 12 extra base hits in October, while walking 15 times compared to 12 punch-outs.
With Ohtani out of the AL, Seager should have a very clear path to winning the AL MVP award. Perhaps the only standing in his way are Yankees Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, division foe Julio Rodriguez, and teammate Marcus Semien.
If he can stay healthy, I’m uber confident in Seager posting an 8+ WAR season, along with another All-Star start, and a Silver Slugger.
National League: Fernando Tatis Jr (SD)
While Fernando Tatis Jr will have a much different path to the NL MVP than Seager, he’s still a household name and one of the most entertaining people in the sport.
Tatis Jr is an electrifying player who burst onto the scene in 2019 at just twenty years old, shining immediately. After posting a 6.4 fWAR over his first 143 games (two short seasons including the COVID year), the league was immediately on notice.
The son of former big leaguer Fernando Tatis amassed 7.3 fWAR at age 22 in 2021, smacking 42 long balls and finishing 3rd in NL MVP voting behind Bryce Harper and Juan Soto. Many fans and analysts were predicting him to be hoisting the 2022 NL MVP award the following year.
However, the perennial superstar would miss all of 2022 thanks to a wrist injury followed by a shocking 80-game PED suspension. Not only did people lose faith in him ever reaching MVP status, they questioned whether or not his baseball abilities were legit to produce at an All-Star level.
After taking the whole year off with a target on his back, Nando moved to right field due to San Diego bringing in SS Xander Bogaerts, and thrived. He posted 9 OAA (better than 94% of all players) and was second in all of MLB in Defensive Runs Saved with 27.
Not only was he stellar on defense, Tatis hit 25 home runs, stole 29 bags, and had a 113 wRC+. The most impressive thing was how he did this all without having Spring Training, a year of baseball prior, and an early April tune up.
Entering his age 25 season, Fernando will have a full offseason to prepare, including Spring Training, and camp, along with his previous season to track. I’m banking on him to finally have that “historic 2022 season” he was supposed to have in 2024.