Overall Takeaway

After the win on Friday, I was excited to see that Skubal and Crochet would not be pitching the same day. I started penciling in a series win and forming my thoughts around that. Everything was going according to plan. Skubal dominated the Red Sox, and Crochet was into the 5th inning, giving up only one run…. and then he imploded.

Crochet had his second game in a row, giving up more than five runs. None of the last five Cy Young winners ever gave up more than five runs, so it is safe to assume that Crochet’s award prospects are gone.

Couple Crochet’s slow start with Sonny Gray’s hamstring injury today, and you have to imagine Craig Breslow is sweating. They are going to need some reinforcements, and fast.

Outside of that, happy to split the series!

Game 1: Red Sox 1-0

Game 2: Tigers 4-1

Game 3: Tigers 6-2

Game 4: Red Sox 8-6

What I Loved

• Willson Contreras

  • Contreras hit another home run this series and continues to get on base almost every game. His strikeout % is concerning, but it is right around his career average, so the team knew what they were getting.

• Ranger Suarez

  • Ranger Suárez turned in a pitching masterclass on Friday night, tossing 8.0 scoreless innings with 7 strikeouts and zero walks to lead the Red Sox to a 1-0 victory.

• Ceddanne Rafaela

  • Rafaela came in on Monday and knocked in two runs after replacing Mayer. Rafaela, along with Contreras and Abreu, has been one of the only consistent players for Boston this year.

• Bullpen (Before Monday)

  • The Red Sox bullpen was a massive bright spot during the series against the Tigers, allowing only one earned run over 10.0 innings of work for a stellar 0.90 ERA and 0.90 WHIP entering Monday. Monday, well, wasn’t as good. Thankfully, the offense woke up on Monday as well.

• Masataka Yoshida

  • Yoshida came in and had a pinch-hit walk-off on Friday, and promptly got benched the next two days. Monday, Cora blessed us with some more Masataka. Yoshida responded, going 2-4 with two runs scored. I will talk more about Yoshida in my who got screwed at the bottom.

What I Was ‘Mid’ About

• Roman Anthony

  • Anthony had a “great” throw on Sunday, but it came when the game was already over. He showed patience on Monday and drew three walks. Still a lot of work to do.

What I Didn’t Love

• Garrett Crochet

  • I referenced it in my takeaway, but Crochet’s shot at a Cy Young disappeared the last week. No one has come back from giving up 10 earned runs and won the Cy Young that season. I had a lot of concerns about how he would rebound after last year, where he pitched more than all his previous MLB seasons combined. Right now, that concern is manifesting.

• Brayan Bello

  • Here are Bello’s walks per game. 3BB/4BB/2BB/3BB. He has 12 BB and 13 Ks this year with a 1.93 WHIP. Yeah, I’m concerned.

• Offense

  • Sure, the offense came alive on Monday, scoring 8 runs, but before that, they were doing nothing. Four runs over the first three games with only one home run. Boston now has the fewest HRs of any team as well.

Who Got Screwed

• Masataka Yoshida

  • When Masataka Yoshida’s career with Boston is over, I am going to look back on it and really question whether Alex Cora ever gave him a fair shot. I understand Cora wanting to get Story and Contreras off the field, but there should never be a world where I turn on the television and have to watch Andruw Monasterio. I understand that the roster is complicated right now, but when Yoshida is hot, just roll with it and stop tinkering.

Another week, another list of my Hot and Cold Hitters. It was tough for me to put multiple pinstripes on this list, but the Angels and Yankees easily had the most entertaining series this week.

I added some of our new Stat Soldier graphics to the HOT section. I will probably add to the COLD hitters next week.

Here we go.

HOT HITTERS

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians

Home Runs (HR): 4

Runs Batted In (RBI): 5

Batting Average (AVG): .364

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.488

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Home Runs (HR): 5

Runs Batted In (RBI): 9

Batting Average (AVG): .292

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.427

Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox

Home Runs (HR): 4

Runs Batted In (RBI): 9

Batting Average (AVG): .333

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.405

Ben Rice, New York Yankees

Home Runs (HR): 4

Runs Batted In (RBI): 6

Batting Average (AVG): .300

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.323

Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

Home Runs (HR): 4

Runs Batted In (RBI): 7

Batting Average (AVG): .321

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.263

Luke Raley, Seattle Mariners

Home Runs (HR): 2

Runs Batted In (RBI): 4

Batting Average (AVG): .450

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.300

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

Home Runs (HR): 5

Runs Batted In (RBI): 7

Batting Average (AVG): .259

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.222

COLD HITTERS

Chase DeLauter, Cleveland Guardians

Home Runs (HR): 0

Runs Batted In (RBI): 1

Batting Average (AVG): .053

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .287

Strikeouts (SO): 1

Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds

Home Runs (HR): 0

Runs Batted In (RBI): 0

Batting Average (AVG): .067

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .431

Strikeouts (SO): 6

Evan Carter, Texas Rangers

Home Runs (HR): 0

Runs Batted In (RBI): 2

Batting Average (AVG): .100

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .390

Strikeouts (SO): 5

Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees

Home Runs (HR): 0

Runs Batted In (RBI): 0

Batting Average (AVG): .118

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .466

Strikeouts (SO): 9

Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

Home Runs (HR): 0

Runs Batted In (RBI): 1

Batting Average (AVG): .130

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .297

Strikeouts (SO): 6

Bo Bichette, New York Mets

Home Runs (HR): 0

Runs Batted In (RBI): 0

Batting Average (AVG): .167

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .375

Strikeouts (SO): 4

Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays

Home Runs (HR): 0

Runs Batted In (RBI): 0

Batting Average (AVG): .179

On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .358

Strikeouts (SO): 4

Of course, I spent this week simping for Jordan Walker, but there were plenty of other hot players I barely even noticed. That is one reason I love checking the MLB leaderboards every Sunday night.

The biggest standout on the HOT side really is James Wood. Numbers-wise, he had the best stats last week, but frankly, I barely saw any of his highlights.

On the COLD side, Murakami turned to ice after his hot start. He is striking out 35% of the time, and I was surprised to see that half of his hits are his four home runs.

Let me know who you would have put on this list!

Hot Hitters

Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
Home Runs (HR): 5
Runs Batted In (RBI): 6
Batting Average (AVG): .360
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.367

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Home Runs (HR): 4
Runs Batted In (RBI): 6
Batting Average (AVG): .280
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.179

James Wood, Washington Nationals
Home Runs (HR): 3
Runs Batted In (RBI): 8
Batting Average (AVG): .545
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.746

Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
Home Runs (HR): 1
Runs Batted In (RBI): 6
Batting Average (AVG): .526
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.535

Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox
Home Runs (HR): 2
Runs Batted In (RBI): 9
Batting Average (AVG): .500
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.471

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Home Runs (HR): 3
Runs Batted In (RBI): 4
Batting Average (AVG): .304
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.163

Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
Home Runs (HR): 2
Runs Batted In (RBI): 5
Batting Average (AVG): .333
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.105

Cold Hitters

Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs
Home Runs (HR): 0
Runs Batted In (RBI): 2
Batting Average (AVG): .050
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .141
Strikeouts (SO): 6

Marcus Semien, New York Mets
Home Runs (HR): 0
Runs Batted In (RBI): 0
Batting Average (AVG): .087
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .174
Strikeouts (SO): 2

Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
Home Runs (HR): 0
Runs Batted In (RBI): 2
Batting Average (AVG): .080
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .252
Strikeouts (SO): 8

Konnor Griffin, Pittsburgh Pirates
Home Runs (HR): 0
Runs Batted In (RBI): 3
Batting Average (AVG): .150
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .290
Strikeouts (SO): 8

Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox
Home Runs (HR): 0
Runs Batted In (RBI): 0
Batting Average (AVG): .050
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .346
Strikeouts (SO): 9

Luis Rengifo, Milwaukee Brewers
Home Runs (HR): 0
Runs Batted In (RBI): 0
Batting Average (AVG): .048
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .186
Strikeouts (SO): 5

Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles
Home Runs (HR): 0
Runs Batted In (RBI): 2
Batting Average (AVG): .130
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .476
Strikeouts (SO): 6

Overall Takeaway

Back-to-back series wins where Boston dropped the first game and took the next two. This was the most exciting series to watch this season as the team put it together across the board. Over the last five games, Red Sox starters have carried a 1.52 ERA, and while the offense continued to be mediocre, they woke up this weekend. 16 runs in the last two games. Still some big concerns at the top of the order, so it will be interesting to see what Cora does in Minnesota.

Bullpen has also been very good, and if you take Jordan Walker out of this series, the Cardinals are nothing.

Game 1: Cardinals 3-2

Game 2: Red Sox 7-1

Game 3: Red Sox 9-3

What I Loved

• Ranger Suarez

  • Was never going to sound the alarm on Suarez after the first two starts. He was getting hit unusually hard, which was concerning, but he pitched great on Saturday.

• OFFENSE FINALLY

  • Let’s pretend that Friday didn’t happen and focus on Saturday/Sunday. Before this series, Boston was the only team not to score seven runs this season. Proceeded to score 7 in two games in a row and had season highs in hits and runs on Sunday. The team is batting .409 with runners in scoring position in the last five games.

• Trevor Story

  • Four hits on Sunday, still great defense despite calls for him to get moved to 2B, and great baserunning.

• Jordan Walker

  • I almost never comment on other players in my reviews, but I have become one of the biggest Walker STANS on X over the last week. Yes, I have him as a keeper in all of my leagues, so I am biased.

• Brayan Bello QS

  • Bello was getting a lot of swings and misses in his previous starts, but was getting rocked. Today, he got back to producing ground balls and was able to go into the 7th inning. Today was clearly the best start of his season.

• Willson Contreras

  • Contreras continues to be the heart of the lineup (with Abreu). He had a great homecoming in St. Louis, culminating with his home run on Sunday. The question I have is, if Alex Bregman was the replacement for Rafael Devers, and Willson Contreras was the replacement for Alex Bregman, did the Red Sox win the Devers trade?

What I Was ‘Mid’ About

• Connely Early

  • He has pitched to a 2.63 ERA so far this season, but carries a 1.54 WHIP with that. I feel like if the goal was to stretch him out, that should have been done in the minors with Tolle. Feels like an implosion could be incoming.

What I Didn’t Love

• Roman Anthony

  • Slugging .276 over the last seven games, and it was clear in this series that the pressure is getting to him. A lot has been put on his back this offseason, and while I do think he will be the face of the franchise, shout out to Willson Contreras for taking on a leadership role thus far.

• Losing to Dustin May

  • No issue with Dustin as a player or person. However, watching him pitch well for another team just brings up dark thoughts about the Rafael Devers trade.

Who Got Screwed

• Fans Watching The Game on NESN Sunday

  • The NESN broadcast was a mess on Sunday, and while Jordan Walker’s home run got screwed, I got screwed also. Cameras were a mess, audio was a mess, so much so that they had to pivot to the Cardinals broadcast.

If you have been living under a rock the last few days, you would have no idea that Jordan Walker has finally arrived. I say arrived because, well, he never really showed us any potential. It’s been three years since Walker made his debut. Many outside the Cardinals fandom forget that he started the 2023 season with a 12-game hitting streak. Not long after that, he was sent down to the minors and never regained his form. Despite injuries, inconsistency, and lack of support from the fans, Walker has kept with it and is now the most talked-about player of the week.

While his 2025 was below average, he showed signs of what was to come.

99th percentile in Bat Speed

91st percentile in Avg Exit Velo

87th percentile in Hard Hit %

Not much, but something.

Now, before I move forward, I want to point out that I started writing this blog on Wednesday afternoon. (X post below)

I only point that out because apparently someone was offended by my starting to post about Jordan Walker. Here is me posting about his change in batting stance last night.

Here is my daily schedule

• Wake up

• Post-fire graphics from www.statsoldier.com

• Watch MLB Network

• Watch Red Sox or MLB Big Inning

• Look at X notifications from MLB/Jomboy/Barstool

Anyone who thinks I have the time or interest to see what they are posting can “touch grass.”

Back to Jordan Walker!

The above post is important to all of this because Walker made a significant adjustment to his stance. After struggling with a swing that had grown increasingly noisy and inconsistent, Walker and the Cardinals' hitting staff worked to strip away the "extra" movements that were causing him to get out of sync. By lowering his hand placement and keeping them closer to his body, he has significantly shortened his path to the ball. The most obvious change is his feet, which are closer together here in 2026.

At least for now, these have led to significant changes in his Savant percentiles. Take a look at them below.

With all the talk about his bat, many people are overlooking his defense and speed.

If you needed a single moment to define Walker’s defensive "arrival," it happened on April 3, 2026, in Detroit. In the bottom of the fifth inning, Javier Báez attempted to test Walker’s arm on a fly ball to right field. Walker unleashed an absolute laser to home plate that Statcast clocked at 100.6 mph, nabbing Báez. It set a new franchise record as the fastest Statcast-tracked assist in Cardinals history since the tracking system was implemented in 2015.

Also, after dropping roughly 7 pounds this offseason to focus on flexibility and explosiveness, his wheels have reached a new gear, according to the latest Statcast Sprint Speed Leaderboard. Dude is 6’6 250, and running as fast as Bobby Witt Jr.

As fate would have it, the Red Sox will be playing Jordan Walker this weekend. So, I will get to watch him in all his glory.

Full disclosure, I have Jordan Walker in all my dynasty and keeper leagues. I need this.

Overall Takeaway

No series review last series as it was Easter and there was only so many times I could hide in the bathroom at my in-laws house. It’s a house. It was a really depressing review anyway, so I much prefer posting today.

I like to think I am relatively positive on X. I am not posting saying this is the worst team in history and calling for John Henry to sell the team. Whether you like him or not, Dave Portnoy brings eyeballs to whatever he is talking about. It seems like, for the first time in years, he is finally watching the Red Sox again. It is still very early, so we will see how long he actually sticks with it.

Coming out of this series, I feel good about the top of the rotation, I feel good about the bullpen (Weissert excluded), and I feel good about two hitters in the lineup. This is a huge upgrade over last week. Step by step, baby.

Game 1: Brewers 8-6

Game 2: Red Sox 3-2

Game 3: Red Sox 5-0

What I Loved

• Willson Contreras

  • I loved the fire from Contreras on Monday. How much of it was his genuine disdain for the Brewers compared to trying to motivate the team, I do not know. Regardless, along with Story and Abreu, Contreras led the team to this series victory. His .850 OPS is second on the team, behind only Abreu.

• Trevor Story

  • Story got knocked down to 5th in the order, and he responded with his best baseball yet. He knocked in 6 runs the last three days and played solid defense (don’t watch his and Mayer’s non-double play)

  • There were a lot of calls for Story to move off SS and let Mayer develop there. I called for this last year and was crucified for it. I think at this point, you need to see a little more from Mayer before making that move. Of course, Story needs to be open to it as well.

• Wilyer Abreu

  • Wilyer is the best player on the team right now, and it is not particularly close (maybe Crochet). He got off to a hot start like this last year, and if it wasn’t for his injury, who knows what his final numbers could have been. We are seeing that same hot start in 2026, so let’s pray he stays healthy.

• Sonny Gray

  • Sonny Gray broke his pattern from last season and now has two good starts in a row. Over six innings for the second start in a row, this time giving up zero runs. He is never going to strike out a lot of guys, but he is going to eat a bunch of innings.

• Garrett Crochet

  • You know, I look at the graphic below, and while Crochet is not pitching at Cy Young levels right now, there is nothing sweeter than having a stopgap in the rotation. Tuesday’s game felt like a must-win for Boston. The panic and hysteria were beginning to settle in, and if Crochet faltered, the protesters were ready to storm the gate. Yeah, I walked away from the TV for five minutes, and he loaded up the bases, but the team won, so who cares?

What I Was ‘Mid’ About

• Most Of the Team?

  • Doesn’t feel like there is a middle ground with this team right now. You have three hitters carrying the series, and everyone else is kind of there. I don’t want to put Roman Anthony/Ceddanne Rafaela/Caleb Durbin/Marcelo Mayer in Didn’t Love right now. So, just imagine them all right here.

What I Didn’t Love

• Red Sox and ABS

  • Wilyer’s call was terrible on Tuesday night, and the Red Sox as a whole have not been great. Going into the series, they've been getting about 50% of their challenges right. Needs to improve.

• Sitting Jarren Duran

  • Outside of Jarren Duran’s suspension, I can not remember when he is actually on the bench. Yet, twice this series, he sat on the bench. Boston won the series, so there's not much to say about it, but it bothers me.

• Terrible Fans

  • I know we all live in the moment, but some of the biggest Red Sox voices on X are just adding flames to this fire for clicks. Won’t be me.

Who Got Screwed

• Roman Anthony

  • Editor’s Note: I didn’t do a series review on Sunday because of Easter. The Anthony piece below is from the previous series, but I still feel it applies.

  • Last year, Alex Cora was ready to lock Masataka Yoshida away and throw away the key. Even when he got hot, he pulled him from the lineup. Classic case of tinkering too much. Now Cora “doesn’t like” what he is seeing with Roman Anthony in left field and has opted to play Masataka in left field on Sunday. Now, let me be clear, I have no problem with having Yoshida in the lineup, and he played great Sunday, so this isn’t about him. This is directed at Cora, once again tinkering too much with a young player. We saw this last year with Kristian Campbell, and I fear that we are seeing it right now with Roman Anthony.

You will typically see bigger names on this list, as that is where I tend to focus my attention. I’m sorry, but TJ Friedl having a bad week doesn’t mean as much as Trevor Story having a bad week. There are levels to this.

Below are some graphics from statsoldier.com. All the graphics you see from me this year will come from that website, so go check it out. It is a little early in the season for me to put graphics for each player, but I wanted to show you all some examples of the graphics we have over there.

HOT HITTERS

Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

• Home Runs (HR): 3

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 8

• Batting Average (AVG): .471

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.733

Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers

• Home Runs (HR): 2

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 7

• Batting Average (AVG): .583

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.532

Ben Rice, New York Yankees

• Home Runs (HR): 3

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 9

• Batting Average (AVG): .421

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.646

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

• Home Runs (HR): 2

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 8

• Batting Average (AVG): .381

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.424

CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals

• Home Runs (HR): 3

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 10

• Batting Average (AVG): .333

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.173

Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates

• Home Runs (HR): 4

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 10

• Batting Average (AVG): .360

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.247

Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

• Home Runs (HR): 2

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 4

• Batting Average (AVG): .421

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 1.366

COLD HITTERS

Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves

• Home Runs (HR): 0

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 2

• Batting Average (AVG): .087

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .322

• Strikeouts (SO): 6

Trevor Story

• Home Runs (HR): 0

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 0

• Batting Average (AVG): .115

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .269

• Strikeouts (SO): 10

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

• Home Runs (HR): 0

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 0

• Batting Average (AVG): .050

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .369

• Strikeouts (SO): 9

Kazuma Okamoto, Toronto Blue Jays

• Home Runs (HR): 1

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 2

• Batting Average (AVG): .182

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .598

• Strikeouts (SO): 13

James Wood, Washington Nationals

• Home Runs (HR): 1

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 5

• Batting Average (AVG): .148

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .628

• Strikeouts (SO): 10

Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

• Home Runs (HR): .130

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 0

• Batting Average (AVG): .130

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .374

• Strikeouts (SO): 10

Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs

• Home Runs (HR): 0

• Runs Batted In (RBI): 0

• Batting Average (AVG): .100

• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): .350

• Strikeouts (SO): 4

Overall Takeaway

No one cares what you do in March. Joey Wiemer leads MLB right now with a 407 wRC+. So, I’m not panicking over the Red Sox's slow start on this road trip. That being said, I hope there is a players’ only meeting tonight on the plane back to Boston to right the ship. It does feel like this team is leaderless right now. Trevor Story, to me, does not seem like the guy everyone is looking to. Roman is too young, and Breslow traded away Rafael Devers.

Unlike over the weekend, I blocked out time for each game and actually got to watch the broadcast. One thought…… I hate the new scorebug.

I am going to introduce a new section to my blog, each series titled “Who Got Screwed.” See the first player to be featured at the bottom of the blog.

Game 1: Astros 8-1

Game 2: Astros 9-2

Game 3: Astros 6-4

What I Loved

• Wilyer Abreu

  • Wilyer stayed hot this series, going 4-11 with a home run. Didn’t result in any wins, so it's tough to throw a parade.

• Road Trip Being Done

  • Bring me back to Fenway.

What I Was ‘Mid’ About

• Garrett Crochet

  • Part of me is so beaten down that I had to put something in here. While Garrett gave up four runs, he didn’t walk anyone and was able to induce seven strikeouts. Red Sox couldn’t do anything about the home run onslaught from the Astros this series.

What I Didn’t Love

• Ranger Suarez

  • Ranger got rocked for four runs in his MLB debut. Continuing to try to take a positive from everything, his curveball had a 75% whiff rate. Yeah, might not mean much right now, but it’s all I got.

• Brayan Bello

  • For a moment, at the end of the fourth inning, I thought we were getting the classic 6 IP/ 3ER start from Bello. Then he imploded in the 5th as Yordan had his number all game. Staying positive, Bello did get some good swings and misses.

• Roman Anthony

  • All the hype from Opening Day has dispersed. Before Wednesday's pinch-hit home run, he had gone 1-17 with ten strikeouts. He has joined a long list of WBC players who are off to a slow start here in 2026, cough Judge cough.

• Top Of The Order

  • The top four spots in the order were batting a combined .156.

Who Got Screwed

• Marcelo Mayer

  • Mayer tried to make a throw to home Tuesday night that Bello attempted to stop. The ball rolled away, and a run scored. The throw was on target, and there was no reason for Mayer to be hit with the error. As it happened, I thought, “Wow, he just got screwed.” So that is now a new section in the blog every week.

It feels very odd doing a series review right off the back. It is so difficult to judge anything from these three games. If I go and say, “Greg Weissert didn’t look great,” I am going to have his parents in my comments screaming at me that it’s the first weekend of the series. So, I am going to ignore the fact that the runs he gave up Saturday and Sunday were the deciding runs in both games.

There is no feeling like Opening Day, even if the schedule was really weird and the Netflix experience made me rethink the trajectory of our society. I did a lot more radio listening this series, with Sunday being the only day I was not driving around.

For those new, here I post a quick series review after every Red Sox series. I also post seven hot and cold hitters every week. That will make its debut NEXT week, as one series is not enough of a sample size. Enjoy.

What I Loved

• Roman Anthony

  • Was he unstoppable this series? No, he actually made quite a few mistakes. He also struck out five times over the three games. However, nothing will take away the excitement I felt on Opening Day.

• Garrett Crochet

  • He was disgusting. This was a big improvement over his 2025 Opening Day, when he only went five innings and gave up two runs, two walks, and struck out only four. A little bummed that he

• Connely Early

  • After watching the 5th inning, I was surprised that Cora sent Early back out for the 6th. Threw 96 pitches, which is more than most expected, and peaked at 96.1 MPH. Not sending him down to the minors was the right idea.

• Wilyer Abreu

  • I have deleted every tweet I had that called for Wilyer to be traded over Duran. If there are any left out there, just know I was hacked. It was the first time in his career that he had back-to-back games with multiple extra-base hits.

What I Was “Mid” About

• Sonny Gray

  • If you followed Sonny last year, you know he was big on alternating good games. So I am just going to figure that he will follow that routine and have a great outing at Fenway next weekend.

What I Didn’t Love

• Roman Anthony’s Arm

  • I genuinely believed for a second that Roman could throw a laser to home plate and keep the game tied on Saturday. That was not the case.

• Jarren Duran Getting Picked Off

  • Cost the Red Sox the game on Sunday. Came immediately after a pick-off attempt, and Duran was very slow to react. I did not see an angle that showed him getting him right away. The first shot looked like he missed, and then he got Duran after he had touched the bag.

• Caleb Durbin

  • LET ME BE VERY CLEAR. This does not mean I don’t like Caleb Durbin or that I think he will have a great season. You can’t go hitless in the series and end up anywhere other than “Didn’t Love.” But that doesn’t mean I don’t love him, if that makes sense.

• Trevor Story

  • I had Story at “mid” until that pop fly to end the game Sunday. Can’t be swinging first pitch with two on down by one run.

I was back and forth about which blog to post on today. I have my season predictions that need to go out, but it felt right to put out these “bold predictions”. Now, some of these are definitely bold, some are not bold at all, and some are complete rage bait.

Enjoy.

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

Bold Prediction: Pete Alonso leads the American League in home runs.

Boston Red Sox

Bold Prediction: Kristian Campbell returns and is an integral part of the lineup.

New York Yankees

Bold Prediction: The Yankees miss the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Rays

Bold Prediction: Junior Caminero finishes top-three in AL MVP voting.

Toronto Blue Jays

Bold Prediction: Ernie Clement finally wins a Gold Glove award.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

Bold Prediction: Munetaka Murakami hits 45 home runs and wins AL Rookie of the Year.

Cleveland Guardians

Bold Prediction: Travis Bazzana goes 20-20.

Detroit Tigers

Bold Prediction: Tarik Skubal regresses and has over a 3.00 ERA.

Kansas City Royals

Bold Prediction: Jac Caglianone hits 30 home runs.

Minnesota Twins

Bold Prediction: Byron Buxton plays 150+ games. (lol)

AL West

Houston Astros

Bold Prediction: Astros win the division.

Los Angeles Angels

Bold Prediction: Grayson Rodriguez throws a no-hitter.

Athletics

Bold Prediction: Nick Kurtz hits fewer than 25 home runs.

Seattle Mariners

Bold Prediction: Brendan Donovan posts 4.0 WAR.

Texas Rangers

Bold Prediction: Corey Seager wins AL MVP.

NL East

Atlanta Braves

Bold Prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr wins NL MVP.

Miami Marlins

Bold Prediction: Eury Perez finishes the season with a sub-2.20 ERA and wins the NL Cy Young.

New York Mets

Bold Prediction: The Mets win the World Series

Washington Nationals

Bold Prediction: Dylan Crews does not return to the majors.

Philadelphia Phillies

Bold Prediction: Andrew Painter wins NL Rookie of the Year.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Bold Prediction: Moises Ballesteros makes the All-Star team.

Cincinnati Reds

Bold Prediction: Matt McClain leads the NL in batting average.

Milwaukee Brewers

Bold Prediction: Jackson Chourio goes 30-30.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Bold Prediction: Oneil Cruz goes 30-30, but bats .205. Doesn’t feel that bold, but feels right.

St. Louis Cardinals

Bold Prediction: Nolan Gorman becomes a serviceable player again.

NL West (Per Greg Monroe)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Bold Prediction: The Diamondbacks lose 90+ games

Colorado Rockies

Bold Prediction: The Rockies have two All-Stars.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Bold Prediction: Roki Sasaki

San Diego Padres

Bold Prediction: Padres finish 4th in the West and start their rebuild.

San Francisco Giants

Bold Prediction: Giants get 95+ wins.

Two years ago, I only used ChatGPT, and it got pretty much everything wrong. Last year, I used ChatGPT and Gemini, and they correctly predicted the Dodgers winning the World Series, Ohtani as MVP, and Judge as MVP.

This year, I used five of the most popular websites for my prediction. Gemini, Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity. All of these accounts are Pro accounts if that means anything to you.

Two of the predictions I am a little disappointed about. It feels like they are just taking the overarching narrative online and using that. It is important to remember that these LLMs are just regurgitating what we humans write. However, there were a few surprises here, and overall, I think they did an “okay” job justifying their picks.

With that, I encourage you to check out the predictions and keep an eye out for more later this week.

Just for fun, I had Notebook LM (part of Gemini) go and make a video based on this blog. Its pretty terrible.

NL MVP

• Gemini: Shohei Ohtani

• Grok: Shohei Ohtani

• ChatGPT: Shohei Ohtani

• Claude: Shohei Ohtani

• Perplexity: Shohei Ohtani

AL MVP

• Gemini: Bobby Witt Jr

• Grok: Aaron Judge

• Chat GPT: Aaron Judge

• Claude: Gunnar Henderson

• Perplexity: Aaron Judge

NL Cy Young

• Gemini: Paul Skenes

• Grok: Paul Skenes

• ChatGPT: Paul Skenes

• Claude: Paul Skenes

• Perplexity: Paul Skenes

AL Cy Young

• Gemini: Garrett Crochet

• Grok: Garrett Crochet

• ChatGPT: Garrett Crochet

• Claude: Garrett Crochet

• Perplexity: Tarik Skubal

NL Rookie of The Year

• Gemini: Konnor Griffin

• Grok: Konnor Griffin

• ChatGPT: Nolan McLean

• Claude: Konnor Griffin

• Perplexity: Konnor Griffin

AL Rookie of the Year

• Gemini: Kevin McGonigle

• Grok: Trey Yesavage

• ChatGPT: Samuel Basallo

• Claude: Kyle Teel

• Perplexity: Trey Yesavage

World Series

• Gemini: Dodgers defeat Mariners

• Grok: Dodgers defeat Red Sox

• ChatGPT: Dodgers defeat Yankees

• Claude: Dodgers defeat Red Sox

• Perplexity: Dodgers defeat Blue Jays

Gemini’s Predictions

This sounds like a great project for The Skipper’s View. Since we are just days away from Opening Day 2026, the projections are leaning heavily into the “super-team” narratives and some massive off-season shifts.

Based on the latest PECOTA and FanGraphs data for this season, here are my predictions for your blog:

2026 League & World Series Predictions

CategoryPredictionReasoningNL ChampionLos Angeles Dodgers. With a projected 105 wins, it’s hard to bet against a team that just added Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz to a roster that already has Ohtani pitching again.AL Champion Seattle Mariners. The vibes in Seattle are at a 25-year high. After pushing the Blue Jays to seven games in last year’s ALCS, their rotation is now arguably the deepest in the American League. World Series Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers. The “three-peat” is the heavy favorite. While the Mariners or Orioles could play spoiler, the Dodgers’ depth looks like a baseball-destroying machine this year.

2026 Major Award Winners

National League

• NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers)
  Now that he’s back on the mound full-time in 2026 alongside his elite hitting, the “unicorn” narrative is back in full force. Juan Soto (Mets) is the only one expected to keep it close.

• NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes (Pirates)
  The reigning winner is the consensus favorite to repeat. His “stuff” metrics have actually improved this spring, which is a terrifying thought for the rest of the NL Central.

• NL Rookie of the Year: Konnor Griffin (Pirates)
  The #1 overall prospect is expected to make the Opening Day roster and provide an immediate 20/20 impact.

American League

• AL MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals)
  He’s entering his age-26 season (prime territory) and is coming off a massive World Baseball Classic. If he leads the Royals to a division title over Detroit, the narrative will be impossible to ignore.

• AL Cy Young: Garrett Crochet (Red Sox)
  After moving to Boston, Crochet has become the strikeout king of the AL East. Most writers are picking him to anchor what might be the best rotation in baseball this year.

• AL Rookie of the Year: Kevin McGonigle (Tigers)
  Detroit’s system is finally overflowing. McGonigle’s elite bat-to-ball skills should make him a high-average staple in the Tigers’ lineup from day one.

Grok’s Predictions

1. NL Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers (Runner-up: Pittsburgh Pirates)
Scout’s Take: The Dodgers are built for a three-peat with unmatched roster depth and a projected 105-win floor, headlined by Shohei Ohtani’s full two-way season (9-11 projected WAR) plus stars like Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, and Edwin Díaz in a bullpen that dominates projected value across every win-expectancy lever. The Pirates are the breakout “it” team with Paul Skenes’ ace-level WAR (6-7+) anchoring a young rotation and Konnor Griffin injecting 3-4 WAR as an immediate impact bat, but LA’s overall positional and relief depth ultimately prevails in the NLCS.

2. AL Champion: Boston Red Sox (Runner-up: New York Yankees)
Scout’s Take: Boston’s complete rotation rebuild (Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suárez, Sonny Gray) projects the highest staff WAR in the AL East bloodbath, giving them the pitching edge to navigate a four-team scrum and ride lineup depth into the pennant. The Yankees counter with Aaron Judge’s perennial 7-8 WAR anchor and elite lineup construction, but the Sox’s upgraded starting depth and October readiness tip the scales in a tight ALCS.

3. World Series Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers (4-3 over Boston Red Sox)
Scout’s Take: LA’s overwhelming projected WAR advantage across lineup, rotation, and bullpen—fueled by Ohtani’s two-way dominance and back-to-back title experience—proves too much for even Boston’s red-hot rotation in a seven-game classic. The Red Sox’s pitching depth and youthful energy make it a dogfight, but the Dodgers’ superior roster construction and playoff pedigree secure the three-peat.

4. Major Award Winners:

NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scout’s Take: Ohtani’s return to full two-way duty on a 105-win juggernaut projects a 10+ WAR season, blending historic hitting and pitching value with an elite supporting cast that maximizes every plate appearance and inning. No other NL player can match that combination of individual dominance and lineup depth.

NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scout’s Take: The reigning winner leads the surging Pirates with projected 200+ innings and 6-7 WAR, his elite stuff and command anchored by emerging rotation depth that turns Pittsburgh into a true October threat. Roster construction around Skenes elevates both his individual numbers and the team’s projected win total.

NL Rookie of the Year: Konnor Griffin, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scout’s Take: Griffin’s top-prospect tools immediately translate to 3-4 WAR impact in the middle of the Pirates’ young lineup, adding dynamic defense, power, and speed to their contention push. His breakout production stands out in a deep NL rookie class thanks to Pittsburgh’s accelerated development path.

AL MVP: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Scout’s Take: Judge anchors the Yankees’ lineup with projected 7-8 WAR, delivering elite power, on-base ability, and run production amid a competitive AL East roster built for October. His consistency and presence provide unmatched offensive WAR value in a division where every edge matters.

AL Cy Young: Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
Scout’s Take: Crochet headlines Boston’s revamped rotation with ace-level strikeouts and innings (projected 5-6+ WAR), driving the staff that carries the Red Sox through the East bloodbath. The combination of his stuff and the supporting depth from Suárez and Gray creates a Cy-worthy profile and playoff platform.

AL Rookie of the Year: Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays
Scout’s Take: Yesavage’s high-K upside and command project 3+ WAR as a key rotation piece for the Blue Jays in the AL East scrum, bolstering their young core’s depth and win projection. His immediate big-league impact separates him from the rest of a talented AL rookie field.

Opening Day is days away—let the chaos begin. These are my official calls as the senior analyst.

Chat GPT Prediction

As of March 21, these are my official preseason calls.

NL Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers
Scout’s Take: Los Angeles is still the only club with both model consensus and dynasty texture: FanGraphs has the Dodgers at 56.0 team WAR, 99.3 projected wins, and 26.9% World Series odds, while PECOTA is even more aggressive at 105 wins. Add a real two-way Ohtani deployment to a core that also includes Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow, and it is still the highest-floor pennant roster in baseball.

NL Runner-up: New York Mets
Scout’s Take: The Mets are my NL runner-up because they pair 47.1 projected team WAR with an 88-win baseline, which is the strongest non-Dodgers profile in the league by FanGraphs’ team-WAR board. A projected top of the order with Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, and Luis Robert Jr., plus Nolan McLean already sitting near the front of a six-man rotation, gives them enough star density to survive October.

AL Champion: New York Yankees
Scout’s Take: New York gets my AL pennant because it owns 47.3 projected team WAR and the best AL odds profile, including 69.5% playoff odds and 6.7% World Series odds. Aaron Judge is still the league’s biggest single offensive hammer at a projected 7.3 WAR, and if the rotation stabilizes as Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole return, the roster shape is still championship-grade.

AL Runner-up: Boston Red Sox
Scout’s Take: Boston is my AL runner-up because its 46.0 team WAR undersells how dangerous the October formula is: FanGraphs gives the Red Sox 22.2 pitching WAR, and MLB.com’s projected rotation opens with Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suárez, and Sonny Gray. If Roman Anthony hits like a star right away, Boston has enough offensive lift to turn that front-end run prevention into a pennant threat.

World Series Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Yankees, 4-2
Scout’s Take: I have the Dodgers winning in six because they are the one team with real separation at both the roster and superstar levels, not just the standings level. Ohtani’s projected 6.1 batting WAR plus 2.3 pitching WAR is the tiebreaker in a series between two elite teams, and that extra all-phase value is why I stop at 4-2 instead of 4-3.

Major awards

NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
Scout’s Take: Ohtani is the cleanest MVP call in either league because the Dodgers are using him in both the lineup and rotation, and FanGraphs projects 6.1 WAR as a hitter with a 165 wRC+ plus another 2.3 WAR over 116 innings on the mound. On the best team in baseball, that two-way volume gives him the highest ceiling and the best narrative runway.

NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes
Scout’s Take: Skenes is the easiest Cy pick on the board: FanGraphs’ Cy model has him first in the NL with 187.2 IP, a 1.97 ERA, 2.39 FIP, and 6.5 WAR. Pittsburgh’s rotation still runs through him, and when the reigning winner is also the projection leader, I’m not overthinking it.

NL Rookie of the Year: Nolan McLean
Scout’s Take: McLean already owns a projected rotation spot for the Mets, and he finished his first eight big-league starts with a 2.06 ERA, 10.7 K/9, and a .200 average against. This award often goes to the rookie with real innings and real leverage, and McLean has both on a club projected near 88 wins.

AL MVP: Aaron Judge
Scout’s Take: Judge still projects like the best pure hitter in the AL: FanGraphs gives him 7.3 WAR, a .418 OBP, a .588 SLG, and 54.8 batting runs. Put that on the AL team with the best playoff odds, and it is enough volume plus team context for another MVP.

AL Cy Young: Garrett Crochet
Scout’s Take: Crochet is my AL Cy pick because FanGraphs projects 197 innings, a 2.90 ERA, a 2.81 FIP, and 5.8 WAR, which is ace-level workload and ace-level dominance. On a Boston staff projected for 22.2 pitching WAR, that performance would come with exactly the kind of contender visibility voters reward.

AL Rookie of the Year: Samuel Basallo
Scout’s Take: Basallo has the cleanest rookie runway in the AL because MLB.com already has him in Baltimore’s Opening Day lineup mix, and FanGraphs gives him 445 PA and 1.5 WAR. As one of MLB Pipeline’s top overall prospects with real left-handed power, he is the best bet to stack both counting stats and impact swings quickly.

Claude’s Prediction

2026 MLB Season Predictions: Official Pre-Opening Day Forecast

By a Senior MLB Analyst & Sabermetrics Expert

🏆 NL Pennant: Los Angeles Dodgers

Runner-up: Philadelphia Phillies

Scout’s Take: With Shohei Ohtani returning as a true two-way contributor, the Dodgers project to add 12–14 WAR from a single roster spot — an unprecedented roster construction advantage no NL team can match. Their depth at every level (rotation, bullpen, lineup) makes them the only team in baseball that can withstand a prolonged injury wave without falling out of contention.

🏆 AL Pennant: Boston Red Sox

Runner-up: Baltimore Orioles

Scout’s Take: The Crochet–Suárez–Gray troika gives Boston arguably the deepest 1-2-3 in the AL, and in a short playoff series, rotation depth wins out. The Red Sox are banking on all three starters staying healthy — a fragile assumption — but if they do, the run prevention ceiling is high enough to sneak through a four-team AL East gauntlet and steal a pennant.

🌟 World Series: Los Angeles Dodgers def. Boston Red Sox, 4–2

Scout’s Take: Boston steals Games 2 and 5 behind elite starting pitching, but Ohtani’s two-way impact — as a cleanup hitter and potential Game 7 opener — is simply a weapon no team in baseball history has had to prepare for. The Dodgers’ superior bullpen depth closes it out in six, securing a third consecutive title and cementing this dynasty alongside the 1949–53 Yankees in the history books.

🏅 NL Awards

NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Scout’s Take: A full two-way season projects Ohtani at 10–12 WAR as a hitter alone, with another 4–5 WAR on the mound. No NL position player will come close to matching a combined 14–16 WAR ceiling, making this an award-by-default if he stays healthy into September.

NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Scout’s Take: The reigning Cy Young winner enters 2026 with refined command of his elite stuff and a year of full-season durability under his belt. His fastball–sinker combination generates swing-and-miss rates that project to 240+ strikeouts, and Pittsburgh will lean on him heavily, which means a counting-stat case to match his pure peripherals.

NL Rookie of the Year: Konnor Griffin, Pittsburgh Pirates

Scout’s Take: Griffin arrives as the consensus top prospect in baseball, and the Pirates have every incentive to let him play through any early-season bumps, given their window with Skenes. His elite bat speed and plus-plus raw power profile suggest an immediate above-average offensive floor even against MLB breaking balls.

NL Sleeper Pick — Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies: If Skenes hits any wall or injury, Wheeler is the most consistent innings-eater in the NL with a track record of 200+ IP and sub-3.00 ERA in Cy Young contention. Philadelphia’s offense will keep him in win totals that writers love.

🏅 AL Awards

AL MVP: Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

Scout’s Take: Henderson is entering his age-24 season as arguably the best two-way shortstop in the AL, projecting for 7–9 WAR off a breakout 2025. Baltimore’s win total hinges on his offensive production, and voters love an MVP who carries a playoff contender — especially a shortstop who profiles as a perennial 35-HR, Gold Glove candidate.

AL Cy Young: Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

Scout’s Take: Crochet’s mid-90s fastball, paired with a devastating slider, is a swing-and-miss machine, and Boston’s stated plan is to build his workload carefully to a 180-inning ceiling. A full, healthy season in a pitcher-friendly AL East context — and on a winning team — gives him every ingredient for a Cy Young breakthrough.

AL Rookie of the Year: Kyle Teel, Boston Red Sox

Scout’s Take: The Red Sox catching prospect cracked the system’s top tier and has the advanced plate discipline to avoid the typical rookie contact-rate struggles. Catching is perpetually undervalued in ROY voting — a catcher who hits .270 with 18 HR and handles a rebuilt rotation gets serious defensive-value bonus points from the electorate.

AL Sleeper Pick — Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers: Back-to-back Cy Young odds would mean writers are finally paying attention to Detroit. Skubal’s stuff and command are as good as any AL starter — if he repeats his 2025 strikeout and walk rates over 200 innings, the voters simply cannot ignore it twice.

Key Storylines to Watch

The AL East is the most unpredictable division in baseball. Boston wins the pennant because their rotation is the most postseason-ready of the four contenders, but if Aaron Judge has a monster first half or the Blue Jays get healthy, that pennant race goes down to the final weekend.

The Pirates are the storyline of the year. Skenes and Griffin on the same roster is a franchise-altering combination, but Pittsburgh hasn’t been a true postseason threat in years — their bullpen depth and lineup construction will determine whether this is a “fun story” team or a legitimate October threat.

The big caveat on everything: Ohtani’s two-way durability. If he sustains that role for 140+ games on both sides, the Dodgers’ three-peat is almost a formality. If he’s limited to DH duties even 40% of the time, the NL race tightens considerably, and the Phillies become live dogs.

Peplexity’s Prediction

Here are my official 2026 MLB picks, built around the strongest roster depth, projection-based WAR upside, and the most stable run-prevention/offense profiles heading into Opening Day. The Dodgers remain the class of the field, but the AL is much tighter, and the award races look particularly star-driven this year.

World Series

World Series Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers over Toronto Blue Jays, 4-2. The Dodgers still project as the best all-around team because their lineup and rotation both stack elite WAR at the top, with Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Yamamoto, Snell, and Glasnow giving them no obvious weak point. Toronto is my AL pick because its rotation depth and playoff experience make it the most balanced challenger in a crowded East, but Los Angeles has the higher ceiling and better October pitching flexibility.

League Champs

NL Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers. Their offensive core is still absurd, and the projected run prevention remains strong enough that they can survive normal injuries better than anyone else in the league. If Ohtani gives them even a near-full two-way season, the Dodgers’ aggregate WAR edge makes them the safest National League bet.

NL Runner-up: Philadelphia Phillies. I like them more than the other obvious NL contenders because their top-end pitching and veteran lineup give them a higher playoff floor than a volatility-heavy field. They do not match the Dodgers’ depth, but they are the club most likely to turn a short series into a coin flip.

AL Champion: Toronto Blue Jays. In a four-team AL East grind, I trust Toronto’s balance and pitching more than a pure star-only argument, especially over 162 games and then into October. The Blue Jays have enough quality innings, enough lineup thump, and enough postseason scar tissue to outlast the Yankees, Orioles, and Red Sox in the bracket.

AL Runner-up: New York Yankees. Aaron Judge still gives them the single-best offensive anchor in the league, and that matters in close playoff series. If the rotation health breaks right, New York’s ceiling is championship-level, even if I still think Toronto is the slightly more complete team.

NL Awards

NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani. He is the rare player whose hitting value alone can win the award, and the two-way contribution gives him a WAR path no one else in the league can realistically match. The Dodgers’ depth also protects his value because they do not need to overextend him to chase wins, which makes a monster season more sustainable.

NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes. He is the best pure pitcher bet in the league, and Pittsburgh’s whole season narrative runs through him, so volume and dominance should both be there. The Pirates’ rise is tied to his ace production, and that kind of workload plus elite stuff usually wins in a crowded ballot.

NL Rookie of the Year: Konnor Griffin. The Pirates are positioned to give him a real runway, and his prospect pedigree makes him the clearest upside play in the league’s rookie class. On a team trying to climb into contention, every day reps could quickly turn his tools into enough value to separate from the pack.

AL Awards

AL MVP: Aaron Judge. He remains the safest bet in the league because his offensive baseline is so high that even a merely healthy season keeps him in the center of the race. In a bloodbath division, the Yankees need his production every night, and that kind of role usually piles up MVP value.

AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal. He still looks like the cleanest combination of ace quality, workload, and strikeout dominance in the American League. The AL field has several strong candidates, but Skubal has the best blend of run suppression and season-long inning bankability.

AL Rookie of the Year: Trey Yesavage. He has the clearest path to impact on a contender, and rookie pitchers with real swing-and-miss stuff tend to gain award traction fast if they stick in the rotation. Toronto’s development environment and competitive timeline make him the kind of rookie who can compile meaningful WAR even without a massive innings total.

Scout’s Take

The Dodgers are my title pick because they combine the league’s deepest star power with the least obvious weakness, and that usually matters most once the season turns into attrition and October sequencing. The Blue Jays get the AL edge because they look more complete than the other East contenders, while the Yankees and Red Sox each have more volatility baked into their paths to the World Series.

The award board leans heavily toward players with both elite projection and a strong playing-time path, which is why Ohtani and Judge are the MVPs and Skenes/Skubal are the Cy Youngs. For the rookies, I’m favoring impact roles on teams with real leverage, and that gives Griffin and Yesavage a better WAR runway than most of the field.

Some of these you are going to look at and scoff at the idea of them being a sleeper. However, I think these are players that you can get at a good value. This isn’t a list of guys to draft in the 29th round and expect them to be a Top 10 player. These are picks in the mid rounds you can take a flyer on.

In a recent giveaway post, I asked followers to comment on who their top sleeper is. Frankly, some of them were terrible, but here were the top picks.

So, when you are reading my list and thinking, “This isn’t a sleeper!” Just come back to this list and know that real breathing humans put Trea Turner as a fantasy sleeper.

15. Robby Snelling — SP, Miami Marlins

A high-pedigree southpaw who successfully rebuilt his delivery in 2025 to regain his status as an advanced strike-thrower. Now sporting more upright mechanics, he has stabilized his velocity in the mid-90s, making him a premier mid-season call-up candidate for a Marlins team in transition.

Stat Highlight: Registered a career-best 7.1% walk rate in 2025, a massive improvement from his 2024 struggles, alongside a 30.3% strikeout rate.

Why He Made the List: His 166 K in 136 innings at the minor league level suggests he is ready for MLB “stash” status the moment a rotation spot opens.

2026 Outlook: Snelling should start in Triple-A but could force his way up by mid-year if Miami’s rotation thins out. High floor as a strikeout machine with improving command, think SP4 upside in redrafts.

14. Parker Messick — SP, Cleveland Guardians

2025 Stat Line: (Combined minors/MLB) - 130+ IP total, with MLB debut sample.

The archetypal Guardians pitching laboratory success story, Messick uses a deceptive delivery and a high-spin arsenal to miss bats despite not having elite velocity. He proved his durability in 2025 by eclipsing 130 total innings between the minors and his MLB debut.

Stat Highlight: In his 2025 MLB sample (3-1, 2.72 ERA, 38 SO, 1.31 WHIP), he induced a 26.0% whiff rate, which sits comfortably above the league average of 24.9%.

Why He Made the List: Cleveland needs starters.

2026 Outlook: Likely breaks camp in the rotation or as a swingman. Ratios could be elite in that park and system—target for WHIP and K/9 stability.

13. Dylan Beavers — OF, Baltimore Orioles

2025 MiLB: (Triple-A) - High walk rate fueling OBP.

A physical specimen (6’5”), his 2025 Triple-A breakout showed that he has refined his approach against spin, but he still has work to do on making contact.

Stat Highlight: Posted a great 16.3% walk rate at Triple-A in 2025, fueling an OBP-heavy profile that translated to a .375 OBP in his brief MLB debut.

Why He Made the List: The 31-steal upside makes him a potential category-winner if he secures a platoon-heavy role in a deep Baltimore lineup.

2026 Outlook: Could platoon in left or right field to start, but everyday at-bats aren’t far off. Speed and OBP make him a great roto plug in option.

12. Jac Caglianone — 1B/RF, Kansas City Royals

2025 MLB Debut Line: .157 BA, but elite power metrics.

A “statcast darling” whose raw power is among the best in the 2024 draft class. While his debut was marred by a low average, his ability to produce elite exit velocities, well in the minors at leaast, makes him the primary beneficiary of Kansas City’s 2026 park dimensions shift.

Stat Highlight: Seven home runs in maajors last year.

Why He Made the List: Moving the fences in at Kauffman could be huge for Jac. He obvioulsy has all the raw ability in the world, but I have to imagine fans are hesistant to take him too high after last year.

2026 Outlook: Starts at first or DH; contact refinements could unlock 25+ HR power. Park change boosts him to CI sleeper status.

11. Grayson Rodriguez — SP, Los Angeles Angels

Pre-Injury Stats: 3.72 xERA in 2024, with an 82% whiff rate.

Now in Anaheim after a trade for Taylor Ward, Rodriguez remains one of the most talented arms in baseball. His 2025 was lost due to injuries, but Angels got a steal in my opinion.

Stat Highlight: Prior to his 2024 injury, he maintained a career 3.98 xERA and a 25.7 K%.

Why He Made the List: Despite the injury risk, his pedigree as a former #1 pitching prospect provides top-20 SP upside at a fraction of the cost.

2026 Outlook: Full health could mean 150+ IP of ace-level production. Huge risk, but huge upside.

10. Shane McClanahan — SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Career Stats: 3.02 ERA, 130 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP, 3.36 FIP.

One of the most efficient left-handers in the game when healthy, McClanahan is the ultimate “risk-reward” play for 2026. After missing 2024 and parts of 2025, he enters spring training with a clean bill of health but a likely strict innings cap.

Stat Highlight: Holds a career 3.02 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, benchmarks that only a handful of active starters can claim over a multi-year span.

Why He Made the List: Even 120 innings of McClanahan are more valuable than 180 innings of a league-average starter.

2026 Outlook: Innings limit caps volume, but per-inning impact is SP1 territory.

9. Daylen Lile — OF, Washington Nationals

2025 MLB Line: .299 AVG/ 9 HR/ 41 RBI/ .845 OPS

Stat Highlight: Finished 2025 with a superb .359 xwOBA. His major league numbers matched what he was posting in AA and AAA in 2025.

Why He Made the List: His late-season surge is worthy of the risk.

2026 Outlook: Everyday outfielder; .290+ AVG with 15-20 HR and speed. Batting average anchor. (Ignore the Spring Training stats)

8. Bubba Chandler — SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

2025 MLB Cameo: Dominant velo (98th percentile), 0.93 WHIP, 25 K%

Stat Highlight: Unleashed a 100.6 mph fastball for a strikeout in September 2025, and averaged 98.9 mph on the heater during his MLB stint.

Why He Made the List: In a league starving for strikeouts, a pitcher who can touch 102 mph and has improved his command is a mandatory target. Changeup and slider were nearly untouchable in 2025.

2026 Outlook: 200+ K potential. Could also implode.

7. Royce Lewis — 3B, Minnesota Twins

When Lewis has been healthy, he produces like a first-round talent. The problem is, he is rarely healthy…. until last year, when he was mediocre.

Stat Highlight: His 114 mph max exit velocity ranks him in the Top 10% of baseball.

Why He Made the List: I think people are going to overlook him this year. For years, he was a “sleeper”, but he never could stay healthy. Then last year, he got over 400 ABs and didn’t do much. I think people will now overlook him again.

2026 Outlook: Full season could yield 30/15 power-speed.

6. Jonathan Aranda — 1B, Tampa Bay Rays

2025 Breakout: High barrel rate translating.

Aranda has spent years obliterating Triple-A pitching, and 2025 finally saw those skills translate to the major leagues. He was what they like to call, “a Statcast Darling”.

Stat Highlight: Finished 2025 with a 54.5% Hard-Hit rate (96th percentile) and a .382 xwOBA

Why He Made the List: His .882 OPS in 2025 wasn't just a flash in the pan; he maintained a 146 wRC+ over 422 plate appearances. With Yandy Díaz potentially seeing more time at DH, Aranda is the clear heir to the everyday first base job in Tampa.

2026 Outlook: Locked-in starter; 25 HR, .300 AVG upside.

5. Tatsuya Imai — SP, Houston Astros

2025 NPB Line: Ace-level dominance.

The next great international import, Imai, arrives in Houston with an ace profile. His 2025 NPB season was historic, and he can be an immediate threat for the AL Rookie of the Year.

Stat Highlight: Posted a 1.92 ERA with 178 strikeouts in 163.2 innings during his 2025 NPB year.

Why He Made the List: His 27.8% K-rate in Japan and Houston’s track record with starters create a perfect storm for a fantasy breakout.

2026 Outlook: Rotation staple.

4. Emmet Sheehan — SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

2025 Post-Surgery: 2.82 ERA/ 0.97 WHIP/ .185 BAA

Stat Highlight: Boasts a 93rd percentile Whiff Rate (32.9%) and a 92nd percentile K-rate (30.6%), driven by a fastball with elite “rise” (17.9 inches of vertical break).

Why He Made the List: His 0.97 WHIP and .185 BAA. With all the rotation of injuries for the Dodgers starters, he could see a huge workload.

2026 Outlook: Workload increase to 160 IP.

3. Iván Herrera — C/DH, St. Louis Cardinals

2025 Line: Multi-category contributor.

Herrera has officially ended the post-Yadier Molina era in St. Louis. He is one of the few catchers in baseball who provides “four-category” production (AVG, HR, RBI, SB) without being a liability in OBP.

Stat Highlight: Ranked as a Top 10 Catcher “Right Now” by MLB Network in February 2026 following his .837 OPS campaign.

Why He Made the List: Catcher production is the rarest commodity in fantasy; Herrera’s 19 HR/8 SB floor is a massive positional advantage.

2026 Outlook: Everyday catcher; 20/10 potential at a thin position.

2. Kazuma Okamoto — 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

2025 NPB Line: Low K%, consistent power.

The Blue Jays’ newest $60 million investment brings a decade of elite power from Japan. Unlike many imports, Okamoto’s strikeout rates have decreased as he has aged.

Stat Highlight: Achieved a career-best 11.3% strikeout rate in 2025, a stunning figure for a player who has hit 30+ HRs in six consecutive seasons in the past.

Why He Made the List: Toronto’s Rogers Centre is a power-hitter’s haven, and Okamoto’s 40-HR ceiling is legitimate.

2026 Outlook: Middle-order bat; 25+ HR in that park.

1. Kyle Stowers — OF, Miami Marlins

2025 Line: Massive offensive output.

Stowers is the #1 player on this list because he has already proven he can do it at the MLB level. His 2025 breakout was a statistical masterpiece, barrling and hitting the ball harder then 95% of the league.

Stat Highlight: Finished 2025 with a 149 wRC+, meaning he was 49% better than the league-average hitter, outperforming several perennial All-Stars, yet somewhat hidden in Miami.

Why He Made the List: Most baseball fans know Stowers. However, he did get hurt later in the season, and if you are in a league with casual fans, he should slip in your draft.

2026 Outlook: Locked-in starter; 30 HR, .280 AVG, top-50 overall value.

Tournament Format and Bracket Overview

The 2026 World Baseball Classic features 20 teams, divided into four pools (A–D) of five teams each.

• Pool Play: March 5–11, 2026
  Each team plays four round-robin games within its pool.

• Advancement: The top two teams from each pool move on.

• Quarterfinals: March 13–14 (Houston and Miami)

• Semifinals: March 15-16 (Miami)

• Championship: March 17 (Miami, loanDepot Park)

From the quarterfinals on, the tournament becomes single elimination—one loss and you’re done.

The bracket is fixed:

• Pools A and B feed one side of the bracket

• Pools C and D feed the other

Pool A (San Juan) – Puerto Rico, Cuba, Canada, Panama, Colombia

Pool A is hosted in San Juan, Puerto Rico, giving the home team a boost from the local fans. This group also includes WBC veterans Cuba (a 2006 finalist), a strong Canadian squad, underdogs Panama, and qualifier Colombia.

Puerto Rico 🇵🇷

Puerto Rico 30-man roster:

* 3B – Nolan Arenado

* 3B – Darell Hernaiz

* 3B/1B – Emmanuel Rivera

* C – Martín Maldonado

* C – Christian Vázquez

* CF – Matthew Lugo

* LF – Willi Castro

* LF – Carlos Cortes

* LHP – Raymond Burgos

* LHP – Jovani Morán

* LHP – Eduardo Rivera

* LHP – Gabriel Rodríguez

* OF – MJ Meléndez

* OF – Bryan Torres

* RF – Heliot Ramos

* RF – Eddie Rosario

* RHP – Fernando Cruz

* RHP – José De León

* RHP – Edwin Díaz

* RHP – José Espada

* RHP – Rico Garcia

* RHP – Jorge López

* RHP – Seth Lugo

* RHP – Luis Quiñones

* RHP – Ángel Reyes

* RHP – Yacksel Ríos

* RHP – Elmer Rodríguez-Cruz

* RHP – Ricardo Vélez

* SS – Edwin Arroyo

* SS – Luis Vázquez

(Manager: Yadier Molina)

Cuba 🇨🇺

Cuba 30-man roster:

* 1B – Malcom Nuñez

* 1B – Yoel Yanqui

* 2B – Yiddi Cappe

* 3B – Yoán Moncada

* C – Omar Hernández

* C – Andrys Pérez

* IF – Ariel Martínez

* LHP – Naykel Cruz

* LHP – Daviel Hurtado

* LHP – Randy Martínez

* LHP – Liván Moinelo

* LHP – Darien Núñez

* LHP – Julio Robaina

* OF – Alfredo Despaigne

* OF – Yoelquis Guibert

* OF – Leonel Moa

* OF – Roel Santos

* RHP – Frank Álvarez

* RHP – Emmanuel Chapman

* RHP – Josimar Cousín

* RHP – Denny Larrondo

* RHP – Yoan López

* RHP – Raidel Martínez

* RHP – Yariel Rodríguez

* RHP – Osiel Rodríguez

* RHP – Luis Danys Morales (Luis D. Romero Jr.)

* RHP – Pedro Santos

* SS – Erisbel Arruebarruena

* SS – Alexei Ramírez

* SS – Alexander Vargas

(Manager: Germán Mesa)

Canada 🇨🇦

Canada 30-man roster:

* 1B – Josh Naylor

* 2B – Edouard Julien

* 3B – Matthew Davidson

* 3B – Abraham Toro

* C – Liam Hicks

* C – Bo Naylor

* LHP – Logan Allen

* LHP – Micah Ashman

* LHP – Antoine Jean

* LHP – Adam Macko

* LHP – James Paxton

* LHP – Matt Wilkinson

* LHP – Rob Zastryzny

* OF – Owen Caissie

* OF – Denzel Clarke

* OF – Tyler O’Neill

* OF – Jacob Robson

* RHP – Phillippe Aumont

* RHP – Jordan Balazovic

* RHP – Eric Cerantola

* RHP – Indigo Diaz

* RHP – Carter Loewen

* RHP – Cal Quantrill

* RHP – Noah Skirrow

* RHP – Michael Soroka

* RHP – Jameson Taillon

* SS – Adam Hall

* SS – Otto López

* UTL – Tyler Black

* UTL – Jared Young

(Manager: Ernie Whitt)

Panama 🇵🇦

Panama 30-man roster:

* 2B – Jonathan Araúz

* 2B – Edmundo Sosa

* 3B – Johan Camargo

* C – Miguel Amaya

* C – Leo Bernal

* C – Iván Herrera

* C/1B – Christian Bethancourt

* CF – Enrique Bradfield Jr.

* CF – Jhonny Santos

* IF – José Caballero

* LHP – Logan Allen

* LHP – Alberto Baldonado

* LHP – Miguel Cienfuegos

* LHP – James González

* LHP – Kenny Hernández

* LHP – Andy Otero

* OF – Allen Córdoba

* OF – José Ramos

* RHP – Dario Agrazal

* RHP – Jaime Barría

* RHP – Paolo Espino

* RHP – Jorge García

* RHP – Miguel Gómez

* RHP – Javy Guerra

* RHP – Ariel Jurado

* RHP – Humberto Mejía

* RHP – Abdiel Mendoza

* RHP – Erian Rodríguez

* SS – Leo Jiménez

* SS – Rubén Tejada

(Manager: Jose Mayorga)

Colombia 🇨🇴

Colombia 30-man roster:

* 1B – Reynaldo Rodríguez

* 1B – Donovan Solano

* 2B – Jordan Díaz

* 3B – Gio Urshela

* C – Jorge Alfaro

* C – Elias Díaz

* C – Carlos Martinez

* CF – Brayan Buelvas

* LHP – Adrián Almeida

* LHP – Rio Gomez

* LHP – Yapson Gómez

* LHP – José Quintana

* LHP – Reiver Sanmartín

* OF – Gustavo Campero

* OF – Jesús Marriaga

* OF – Harold Ramírez

* RHP – Elkin Alcalá

* RHP – Austin Bergner

* RHP – Danis Correa

* RHP – Nabil Crismatt

* RHP – Pedro García

* RHP – Tayron Guerrero

* RHP – David Palacios (Lorduy)

* RHP – Emerson Martínez

* RHP – Luis Patiño

* RHP – Jhon Romero

* RHP – Julio Teherán

* RHP – Guillermo Zuñiga

* SS – Michael Arroyo

* SS – Dayan Frías

(Manager: José Mosquera)

Pool B (Houston) – United States, Mexico, Italy, Great Britain, Brazil

Pool B plays out at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas, and features tournament favorites Team USA alongside a strong Mexico team, a much-improved Italy, plucky underdogs Great Britain, and Brazil. The USA and Mexico are the on-paper favorites, but Italy’s roster full of MLB talent makes this a very intriguing group.

United States 🇺🇸

USA 30-man roster:

* 1B – Paul Goldschmidt

* 1B – Bryce Harper

* 2B – Brice Turang

* 3B – Alex Bregman

* C – Cal Raleigh

* C – Will Smith

* CF – Byron Buxton

* CF – Pete Crow-Armstrong

* DH – Kyle Schwarber

* LF – Corbin Carroll

* LHP – Matt Boyd

* LHP – Garrett Cleavinger

* LHP – Clayton Kershaw

* LHP – Tarik Skubal

* LHP – Gabe Speier

* RF – Aaron Judge

* RHP – David Bednar

* RHP – Clay Holmes

* RHP – Griffin Jax

* RHP – Brad Keller

* RHP – Nolan McLean

* RHP – Mason Miller

* RHP – Joe Ryan

* RHP – Paul Skenes

* RHP – Michael Wacha

* RHP – Logan Webb

* RHP – Garrett Whitlock

* SS – Gunnar Henderson

* SS – Bobby Witt Jr.

* UTL – Ernie Clement

(Manager: Mark DeRosa)

Mexico 🇲🇽

Mexico 30-man roster:

* 1B – Joey Meneses

* 1B – Rowdy Tellez

* 2B – Jonathan Aranda

* 2B – Nick Gonzales

* 2B – Jared Serna

* 3B – Joey Ortiz

* 3B – Ramón Urías

* C – Alejandro Kirk

* C – Alexis Wilson

* CF – Jarren Duran

* CF – Alek Thomas

* LF – Randy Arozarena

* LHP – Alexander Armenta

* LHP – Brennan Bernardino

* LHP – Robert García

* LHP – Samy Natera Jr.

* OF – Julián Ornelas

* RF – Alejandro Osuna

* RHP – Javier Assad

* RHP – Taj Bradley

* RHP – Alex Carrillo

* RHP – Jesús Cruz

* RHP – Daniel Duarte

* RHP – Luis Gastelum

* RHP – Andrés Muñoz

* RHP – Gerardo Reyes

* RHP – José Urquidy

* RHP – Víctor Vodnik

* RHP – Taijuan Walker

* SS – Luis Urías

(Manager: Benji Gil)

Italy 🇮🇹

Italy 30-man roster:

* 1B – Vinnie Pasquantino

* 2B – Thomas Saggese

* 3B – Jon Berti

* 3B – Andrew Fischer

* 3B – Giaconino Lasaracina

* C – Camden Mineo

* C – Kyle Teel

* IF – Sam Antonacci

* IF – Zach Dezenzo

* LHP – Sam Aldegheri

* LHP – Joe La Sorsa

* OF – Jac Caglianone

* OF – Dominic Canzone

* OF – Jakob Marsee

* OF – Nick Morabito

* OF – Dante Nori

* RHP – Dan Altavilla

* RHP – Dylan DeLucia

* RHP – Alessandro Ercolani

* RHP – Matt Festa

* RHP – Gordon Graceffo

* RHP – Alek Jacob

* RHP – Michael Lorenzen

* RHP – Ron Marinaccio

* RHP – Kyle Nicolas

* RHP – Aaron Nola

* RHP – Adam Ottavino

* RHP – Gabriele Quattrini

* RHP – Greg Weissert

* UTL – Miles Mastrobuoni

(Manager: Francisco Cervelli)

Great Britain 🇬🇧

Great Britain 30-man roster:

* 1B – BJ Murray Jr.

* 2B – Jazz Chisholm Jr.

* 2B – Ivan Johnson

* 3B – Nate Eaton

* C – Willis Cresswell

* C – Harry Ford

* CF – Kristian Robinson

* LHP – Nick Wells

* OF – Justin Wylie

* RF – Matt Koperniak

* RF – Trayce Thompson

* RHP – Jack Anderson

* RHP – Brendan Beck

* RHP – Tristan Beck

* RHP – Donovan Benoit

* RHP – Chavez Fernander

* RHP – Gary Gill Hill

* RHP – Antonio Knowles

* RHP – Miles Langhorne

* RHP – Ryan Long

* RHP – Michael Petersen

* RHP – Jack Seppings

* RHP – Graham Spraker

* RHP – Najer (Nasher) Virgil Victor

* RHP – Tyler Viza

* RHP – Owen Wild

* RHP – Vance Worley

* SS – Lucius Fox

* SS – Ian Lewis Jr.

* SS – Nick Ward

(Manager: Brad Marcelino)

Brazil 🇧🇷

Brazil 30-man roster:

* 1B – Dante Bichette Jr.

* C – Gabriel Carmo

* C – Gabriel Gomes

* C – Enzo Hayashida

* C – Silva Silva

* CF – Gabriel Maciel

* IF – Vitor Ito

* IF – Felipe Koragi

* IF – Felipe Mizukosi

* IF – Tiago Nishiyama

* IF – Lucas Rojo

* LHP – Hugo Kanabushi

* LHP – Oscar Nakaoshi

* LHP – Enzo Sawayama

* LHP – Hector Villarroel

* OF – Osvaldo Carvalho

* OF – Victor Mascai

* OF – Lucas Ramirez

* RHP – Pietro Albanez

* RHP – Gabriel Barbosa

* RHP – Joseph Contreras

* RHP – Tiago da Silva

* RHP – Murilo Gouvea

* RHP – Pedro Lemos

* RHP – Tomas Lopez

* RHP – Daniel Missaki

* RHP – Eric Pardinho

* RHP – Rodrigo Takahashi

* RHP – Thyago Vieira

* SS – Leonardo Reginatto

(Manager: Yuichi Matsumoto)

Pool C (Tokyo) – Japan, South Korea, Australia, Chinese Taipei, Czech Republic

Pool C will be played at the Tokyo Dome in Japan, featuring the defending champions Japan, their rivals South Korea, and three qualifier teams: Australia, Chinese Taipei (Taiwan), and Czech Republic. Japan is the clear favorite at home, but Korea has a strong squad aiming to challenge them. Meanwhile, Australia, Taipei, and Czechia all have experienced rosters and will battle for wins in what should be an exciting group.

Japan 🇯🇵

Japan 30-man roster:

* 1B – Munetaka Murakami

* 2B – Shugo Maki

* 3B – Kazuma Okamoto

* 3B – Teruaki Satō

* C – Yuhei Nakamura

* C – Seishirō Sakamoto

* C – Kenya Wakatsuki

* CF – Ukyo Shuto

* DH – Shohei Ohtani

* LF – Kensuke Kondō

* LF – Masataka Yoshida

* LHP – Yusei Kikuchi

* LHP – Yuki Matsui

* LHP – Hiroya Miyagi

* LHP – Ryuhei Sotani

* RF – Shota Morishita

* RF – Seiya Suzuki

* RHP – Daichi Ishii

* RHP – Hiromi Itō

* RHP – Kōki Kitayama

* RHP – Yuki Matsumoto

* RHP – Taisei Ōta

* RHP – Tomoyuki Sugano

* RHP – Kaima Taira

* RHP – Hiroto Takahashi

* RHP – Atsuki Taneichi

* RHP – Yoshinobu Yamamoto

* SS – Sōsuke Genda

* SS – Kaito Kozono

* UTL – Taisei Makihara

(Manager: Hirokazu Ibata )

South Korea 🇰🇷

Korea 30-man roster:

* 1B/3B – Bo Gyeong Moon

* 1B/3B – Si Hwan Roh

* 2B – Hyeseong Kim

* 2B – Min Jae Shin

* 2B – Shay Whitcomb

* 3B – Do Yeong Kim

* C – Jae Hoon Choi

* C – Dong Won Park

* CF – Jung-Hoo Lee

* CF – Hae Min Park

* LF – Jahmai Jones

* LF – Ja Wook Koo

* LF – Hyun Bin Moon

* LHP – Young Kyu Kim

* LHP – Hyun-Jin Ryu

* LHP – Ju Young Son

* LHP – Seung Ki Song

* RF – Hyun Min Ahn

* RHP – Dane Dunning

* RHP – Woo Suk Go

* RHP – Been Gwak

* RHP – Woo Joo Jeong

* RHP – Byeong Hyeon Jo

* RHP – Young Pyo Ko

* RHP – Kyung Eun Noh

* RHP – Riley O’Brien

* RHP – Yeong-Hyun Park

* RHP – Hyeong Jun So

* RHP – Tae In Won

* SS – Ju Won Kim

(Manager: Ji-Hyun Ryu)

Australia 🇦🇺

Australia 30-man roster:

* 1B – Rixon Wingrove

* 2B – Travis Bazzana

* C – Christopher Burke

* C – Mitch Edwards

* C – Alex Hall

* C – Robbie Perkins

* IF – Curtis Mead

* IF – Logan Wade

* LHP – Josh Hendrickson

* LHP – Jon Kennedy

* LHP – Cooper Morgan

* LHP – Jack O’Loughlin

* LHP – Blake Townsend

* LHP – Alex Wells

* LHP – Lachlan Wells

* OF – Tim Kennelly

* OF – Aaron Whitefield

* RF – Ulrich Bojarski

* RHP – Kieren Hall

* RHP – Ky Hampton

* RHP – Sam Holland

* RHP – Connor MacDonald

* RHP – Mitch Neunborn

* RHP – Warwick Saupold

* RHP – Todd Van Steensel

* RHP – Coen Wynne

* SS – George Callil

* SS – Jarryd Dale

* UTL – Max Durrington

* UTL – Robbie Glendinning

(Manager: Dave Nilsson)

Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) 🇹🇼

Chinese Taipei 30-man roster:

* 1B – Jonathon Long

* C – Chiang Shao-Hung

* C – Kungkuan Giljegiljaw

* C – Lin Chia-Cheng

* CF – Stuart Fairchild

* IF – Lee Hao-Yu (Hao-Yu Lee)

* IF – Wu Nien-Ting

* LHP – Chen Kuan-Yu

* LHP – Lin Yu-Min

* LHP – Wei-En Chen

* OF – Chen-Wei Chen

* OF – Chen Chieh-Hsien

* OF – Lin An-Ko

* RHP – Yi Chang (Chang Yi)

* RHP – Chen Po-Yu

* RHP – Cheng Hao-Chun

* RHP – Lin Ruei-Yang

* RHP – Hsu Jo-Hsi

* RHP – Hu Chih-Wei

* RHP – Lin Kai-Wei

* RHP – Lin Shih-Hsiang

* RHP – Sha Tzu-Chen

* RHP – Sun Yi-Lei

* RHP – Tseng Chun-Yue

* RHP – Chang Jun-Wei

* RHP – Zhuang Jun-Wei (Chen Jun-Wei)

* SS – Chang Yu-Cheng

* SS – Cheng Tsung-Che

* SS – Chiang Kun-Yu

* UTL – Lin Tzu-Wei

(Manager: Tseng Hao-Chu)

Czech Republic 🇨🇿

Czech Republic 30-man roster:

* 1B – Ryan Johnson

* 2B – Terrin Vavra

* C – Matouš Bubeník

* C – Martin Červenka

* C – Martin Zelenka

* IF – Martin Červinka (Mertin Cervinka)

* IF – Vojtěch Menšík

* IF – Martin Mužík

* IF – Jan Pospíšil

* IF – Milan Prokop

* LHP – Jeff Barto

* LHP – Tomáš Duffek

* LHP – Lukáš Ercoli

* LHP – Jan Novák

* OF – William Escala

* OF – Marek Křejcirík

* OF – Maximilan (Max) Přějda

* OF – Michal Šindelka

* RF – Marek Chlup

* RHP – Filip Čápka

* RHP – Lukáš Hlouch

* RHP – Filip Kolmann

* RHP – Michael Kovala

* RHP – Marek Minařík

* RHP – Tomáš Ondra

* RHP – Daniel Padyšák

* RHP – Ondřej Satoria

* RHP – Martin Schneider

* RHP – Ondřej Vránek (Ondřej Vank)

* RHP – Boris Večerek

(Manager: Pavel Chadim)

Pool D (Miami) – Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Netherlands, Israel, Nicaragua

Pool D in Miami is this tournament’s proverbial “Group of Death,” filled with talent-heavy teams Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and Netherlands, plus a scrappy Israel squad and qualifier Nicaragua. The Dominican and Venezuelan teams are stacked with MLB All-Stars, while the Dutch and Israeli teams feature many MLB veterans as well. Nicaragua is the underdog but has a few MLB-level arms to compete. The Miami crowd (especially Dominican and Venezuelan fans) will make this an electric atmosphere.

Dominican Republic 🇩🇴

Dominican Republic 30-man roster:

* 1B – Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

* 1B – Carlos Santana

* 2B – Ketel Marte

* 3B – Junior Caminero

* 3B – Manny Machado

* C – Agustín Ramírez

* C – Austin Wells

* CF – Oneil Cruz

* CF – Julio Rodríguez

* CF – Johan Rojas

* LHP – Wandy Peralta

* LHP – Cristopher Sánchez

* LHP – Gregory Soto

* RF – Juan Soto

* RF – Fernando Tatis Jr.

* RHP – Sandy Alcántara

* RHP – Elvis Alvarado

* RHP – Brayan Bello

* RHP – Huascar Brazobán

* RHP – Seranthony Domínguez

* RHP – Camilo Doval

* RHP – Carlos Estévez

* RHP – Dennis Santana

* RHP – Luis Severino

* RHP – Edwin Uceta

* RHP – Abner Uribe

* RHP – Albert Abreu

* SS – Jeremy Peña

* SS – Geraldo Perdomo

* UTL – Amed Rosario

(Manager: Albert Pujols)

Venezuela 🇻🇪

Venezuela 30-man roster:

* 1B – Luis Arráez

* 1B – Willson Contreras

* 2B – Gleyber Torres

* 2B/SS – Andrés Giménez

* 3B – Maikel Garcia

* 3B – Eugenio Suárez

* C – William Contreras

* C – Salvador Perez

* CF – Jackson Chourio

* LHP – Enmanuel De Jesús

* LHP – Oddanier Mosqueda

* LHP – Eduardo Rodríguez

* LHP – Ricardo Sánchez

* LHP – Ranger Suárez

* LHP – Ángel Zerpa

* RF – Wilyer Abreu

* RF – Ronald Acuña Jr.

* RHP – Eduard Bazardo

* RHP – José Butto

* RHP – Yoendrys Gómez

* RHP – Carlos Guzmán

* RHP – Pablo López

* RHP – Andrés Machado

* RHP – Germán Márquez

* RHP – Keider Montero

* RHP – Daniel Palencia

* RHP – Antonio Senzatela

* SS – Ezequiel Tovar

* UTL – Javier Sanoja

(Manager: Omar López)

Netherlands (Kingdom of the Netherlands) 🇳🇱

Netherlands 30-man roster:

* 1B – Didi Gregorius

* 2B – Ozzie Albies

* 3B – Juremi Profar

* C – Hendrik Clementina

* C – Chadwick Tromp

* LF – Jurickson Profar

* LHP – Jamdrick Cornelia

* LHP – Ryjenteriri “Ryan” Merité

* OF – Dayson Croes

* OF – Druw Jones

* RHP – Jaydenn Estanista

* RHP – Wendell Floranus

* RHP – Arij Fransen

* RHP – Lars Huijer

* RHP – Kenley Jansen

* RHP – Antwone Kelly

* RHP – Jaitoine Kelly

* RHP – Kevin Kelly

* RHP – Shairon Martis

* RHP – Eric Mendez

* RHP – Justin Morales

* RHP – Shawndrick Oduber

* RHP – J.C. Sulbaran

* RHP – Derek West

* RHP – Dylan Wilson

* SS – Xander Bogaerts

* SS – Sharlon Schoop

* UTL – Ray-Patrick Didder

* UTL – Ceddanne Rafaela

* UTL – Delano Selassa

(Manager: Andruw Jones)

Israel 🇮🇱

Israel 30-man roster:

** CF – Harrison Bader*

1B – Matt Mervis*

1B – Spencer Horwitz*

2B – Zack Gelof* *

IF – Noah Mendlinger*

IF – Cole Carrigg*

IF – Assaf Lowengart*

IF – Benjamin Rosengard*

C – Garrett Stubbs*

C – C.J. Stubbs*

RHP – Dean Kremer*

RHP – Tommy Kahnle*

RHP – Matt Bowman*

RHP – Eli Morgan*

RHP – Robert Stock*

RHP – Zack Weiss*

RHP – Charlie Beilenson*

RHP – Josh Blum*

RHP – Harrison Cohen*

RHP – Daniel Federman*

RHP – Jordan Geber*

LHP – Rob Kaminsky*

RHP – Max Lazar*

RHP – Carlos Lequerica*

RHP – Josh Mallitz*

LHP – Ryan Prager*

RHP – Ben Simon*

OF – Troy Johnston*

OF – Zach Levenson*

OF – RJ Schreck*

(Manager: Brad Ausmus)

Nicaragua 🇳🇮

Nicaragua 30-man roster:

* 1B – Elian Rayo

* 1B – Emanuel Trujillo

* 2B – Brandon Leytón

* 3B – Cheslor Cuthbert

* 3B – Mark Vientos

* C – Melvin Novoa

* C – Ronald Rivera

* CF – Ismael Munguía

* CF – Cristhian Sandoval

* IF – Benjamin Alegría

* IF – José Orozco

* LF – Omar Mendoza

* LHP – Danilo Bermúdez

* LHP – Dilmer Mejía

* LHP – Oscar Rayo

* LHP – Carlos Teller

* OF – Chase Dawson

* OF – Juan Montes

* RHP – Kenword Bernardo Burton

* RHP – Stiven Cruz

* RHP – Osman Gutiérrez

* RHP – Duque Hebbert

* RHP – Ronald Medrano

* RHP – Ángel Obando

* RHP – JC Ramírez

* RHP – Erasmo Ramírez

* RHP – Carlos Rodríguez

* RHP – Bryan Torres

* SS – Jeter Downs

* SS – Freddy Zamora

(Manager: Dusty Baker Jr )

Starting in 2026, MLB is rolling out its Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System across the big leagues. This is NOT ROBO UMPS. This is a challenge layer on top of the human umpire, and I think it might be the greatest change MLB has made in a decade.

In This Blog

1. ABS is a challenge system, not full automation

2. Who can challenge + how it works (and how many you get)

3. What the “ABS strike zone” actually is

4. Pace-of-play impact: Does it slow games down?

5. Strategy + what fans should watch for in 2026

1) ABS Is A Challenge System, Not A Robo Ump

Let’s kill the biggest misconception first: ABS does not replace the home plate umpire.

The plate ump still calls balls and strikes. ABS only steps in when a player challenges a call, and then the broadcast/scoreboard shows the result almost instantly. In that time, the umpire steps away and announced the call and that there is a challenge. We have seen a number already this Spring, and they move very fast.

Full automation would basically nuke the human part of calling a zone and the entire craft of pitch framing, which would throw a lot of new statistics into flux. The challenge system keeps the human element while cleaning up the most egregious misses.

2) Who Can Challenge?

Only three people can do it:

• Batter

• Catcher

• Pitcher

The player has to challenge immediately after the pitch, and the official signal is a tap on the cap/helmet. Any longer and the ump will not accept it, as there is a fear of signals coming from the dugout.

• Two per team to start the game

• You only lose one if the call stands (win the challenge = you keep it)

If you’re out of challenges and the game goes to extras, you’ll get one challenge for that inning (10th, then 11th, etc.). If you already have at least one challenge left entering the 10th, you don’t get a bonus one for that inning.

3) What the ABS Strike Zone

• Width: 17 inches — full width of home plate.

• Top: 53.5% of the batter’s standing height.

• Bottom: 27% of the batter’s standing height.

• Plane: Measured at the midpoint of the plate (8.5 inches from front and back), as a flat 2D rectangle (unlike the rulebook’s 3D zone).

It of course adjusts to the batter and everything is digital and very accurate (thus far).

4) Does ABS Slow The Game Down?

Nope.

From MLB’s spring training testing, challenges averaged 13.8 seconds, and games averaged about 4.1 challenges, so you’re looking at roughly a minute of added time in a typical game.

That’s why MLB feels comfortable adding this on top of the pitch clock era: it’s not a full-blown replay review where everyone stands around for three minutes while New York debates rules.

5) STRATEGY: When To Use It

Feels obvious but….

• Full-count pitches

• Strike three / ball four moments

• Late innings with runners on

MLB’s own spring data showed catchers doing better than hitters on challenges overall. To that point, a number of pitchers have already come out and said they will not use the challenge system at all. We have also seen a lot of teams just hold them until the end of the game and then use them in the final two innings.

A huge chunk of MLB ejections has been tied to ball/strike disputes, and one of the motivations for ABS is to reduce that constant friction.

Quick FAQ

Is ABS in every MLB game in 2026?
It’s in every game at an MLB ballpark, plus the postseason.

Do managers get to challenge balls and strikes?
No! Only the batter, pitcher, or catcher.

Do you lose a challenge if you’re right?
No, you keep it if you win.

How fast does a challenge have to happen?
Immediately after the call.

One of the biggest arguments in the baseball world is the preference over bWAR and WAR. While both sites (Baseball Reference and Fangraphs) attempt to summarize a player’s total value into a single number, they often arrive at different conclusions because they are using slightly different equations.

The Core Difference: Results vs. Skills

The biggest divide between the two systems. fWAR (FanGraphs) and bWAR (Baseball-Reference), comes down to how they evaluate pitchers and defenders.

• bWAR: This model starts with runs allowed (RA9). It asks: “How many runs did this pitcher actually give up?” It then adjusts for the quality of the opponents, the ballparks, and the defense playing behind them. bWAR uses actual runs allowed regardless of how they happened, whereas fWAR focuses more on simply what the pitcher controls.

• fWAR: This model is built on Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). It focuses on outcomes the pitcher controls most directly: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. It is designed to be “fielding-independent” and is often seen as a better indicator of true talent or future performance.

Why Hitter WAR Differs

For position players, the two systems generally align more closely than they do for pitchers because they use similar “linear weights” for hitting. However, gaps still occur, primarily due to different defensive inputs:

• While fWAR uses OAA to measure range, these stats are often rolled into Statcast’s broader Fielding Run Value (FRV), which provides a comprehensive look at a player’s total defensive impact by also accounting for arm strength and catching metrics. FRV also includes “Cather Framing,” which is the ability of a catcher to turn balls into strikes. It will be interesting to see how ABS affects this.

• bWAR uses the DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) family of inputs.

A recent example that shows the gap for a hitter would be Patrick Bailey in 2024.

• fWAR: 4.3 | bWAR: 1.8

Patrick Bailey is widely considered the best defensive catcher in baseball by Statcast. Because fWAR incorporates his elite pitch framing and Statcast framing runs, he is valued as a borderline All-Star. However, in bWAR, which focuses more on traditional results, sees a league-average player.

Some Other Examples

To truly understand how these systems diverge, it helps to look at specific seasons where the numbers told two different stories.

Sandy Alcantara (2022)

In 2022, Sandy Alcantara’s season became the canonical example of the “innings-eater bonus.”

• bWAR: 8.0 (Led all of MLB)

• fWAR: 5.9

Alcantara’s 2.28 ERA and MLB-leading 228.2 innings were massive and might be the last time we see an ace pitch that deep in so many games. Because bWAR is built on actual run prevention (RA9), it heavily rewarded his massive workload and his ability to carry a game into the 8th or 9th inning (he threw 6 complete games that year). However, fWAR was more conservative because his 2.99 FIP wasn’t quite as dominant as his ERA (he was 8th that year in FIP).

Blake Snell (2023)

Blake Snell’s 2023 season was a “run prevention monster” that faced “FIP warnings.”

• bWAR: 6.5

• fWAR: 4.1

Snell became the first pitcher since 1913 to lead the Majors in both ERA (2.25) and Walks (99) in the same season. bWAR rewarded him for the results: he allowed the fewest hits per nine innings (5.8 H/9) and the lowest opponent batting average (.180) in baseball. Essentially, bWAR saw a pitcher who was impossible to hit and “pitched out of trouble” every time he walked someone.

However, fWAR was significantly lower because its FIP-based formula treats walks as a “deadly sin.” Because he walked 13.3% of the batters he faced, the model viewed him as a pitcher dancing on the edge of a cliff. While he won the Cy Young, fWAR remained skeptical, viewing his season as a high-wire act sustained by an unsustainable 86.7% strand rate.

Cal Raleigh (2025)

In 2025, Cal Raleigh put together arguably the greatest offensive season by a catcher in MLB history, shattering records with 60 home runs and leading the Mariners to their first division title in over two decades.

• bWAR: 7.4

• fWAR: 9.1

While bWAR still sees an MVP-level season, it is nearly two wins lower because it does not incorporate framing runs. Additionally, bWAR’s DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) metric was more conservative on his overall defensive impact compared to the Statcast metrics used by fWAR. Fangraphs places high value on his elite pitch framing (93rd percentile) and his power output. Still was not enough to catch Judge who had 10.1 fWAR.

Which One Should You Use?

• For Hall of Fame Debates: bWAR is the most commonly cited historical leaderboard in Hall of Fame debates

• For Predicting Next Season: Lean toward fWAR. Its focus on FIP-based components and Statcast OAA is more informative for forecasting “what should happen next.”

• For Award Debates: Use both.

Personally, I always reference bWAR when I am writing blogs or tweeting. Only recently have MLB fans started going after me for it. However, I will not change.

These are nine players that I am keeping my eyes on in 2026.

Luis Robert Jr. (Mets)

Luis Robert Jr.’s 2025 was about as frustrating as any star season could be without being flat-out bad. In 110 games, he hit .223/.297/.364 with a .661 OPS, 14 home runs, 33 steals, and an 85 OPS+. Injury once again limited him for a second year in a row.

The tools remained present: elite bat speed, plus speed, and great range in the outfield. But those percentiles don’t mean anything if he isn’t putting it together consistently.

The Mets are banking on him replacing some of the power they lost when Pete Alonso signed with Baltimore. By sending Luisangel Acuña and Truman Pauley to Chicago, New York signaled they are ready to gamble on Robert’s elite ceiling to fill the middle-of-the-order void.

It’s a calculated risk: they are betting that a change of scenery and a more competitive environment will help Robert turn that top-tier exit velocity back into elite home run production.

Jasson Domínguez (Yankees)

Domínguez entered 2025 with sky-high expectations. Instead, he delivered a mixed major league debut that left a lot of Yankee fans frustrated and questioning the future foundation of this team.

Across 123 games, he slashed .257/.331/.388 with 10 homers, 23 steals, and a 103 wRC+.
For a player with absurd bat speed and elite exit velocity ceilings, the production felt… restrained.

The metrics tell the story. His overall numbers were about league average, but his platoon splits were stark: much stronger against right-handed pitching than left.

• Vs. RHP (as a Lefty): .768 OPS

• Vs. LHP (as a Righty): .569 OPS

Defensively, -9 Outs Above Average will most likely result in a move to RF eventually.

At this point, Dominguez is no longer an “exciting prospect” or “The Martian”. He is a struggling prospect who played at barely league-average. For a Yankees team that is trying to win a ring within Aaron Judge’s prime, they need Dominguez to show some sort of spark in 2026.

Spencer Strider (Braves)

Strider’s 2025 was, well, complicated. He was able to come in and pitch over 100 innings after elbow surgery. However, he was far from the pitcher who dominated with a 36.8% strikeout rate at his peak.

In 125.1 innings, his K% dipped to 24.3%, and his fastball velocity sat closer to average. He was still getting plenty of guys to Whiff, but his Chase % dropped a full 40 points.

If he returns to a K-rate north of 30% with ride on his heater? 2026 will be seen as his comeback year. If not, the Braves need to start looking elsewhere for an ace.

Gerrit Cole (Yankees)

Cole’s 2025 was all rehab after Tommy John surgery in March. Now 35 and still owed a big contractual number, the Yankees are hoping to get at least a taste of 2023 Cole after a disappointing 2024, where his velocity dipped to 95.9 MPH.

The key metric to watch is his K-BB%. In 2023, he was an elite 21.2%; in his limited 2024, that fell to 18.0%. If surgery fixed the elbow inflammation that plagued him, we should see his fastball whiff rate climb back toward that 25-30% range. If he’s sitting 94-95 mph with diminished ride, the Yankees are paying for a mid-rotation starter at ace prices.

Jackson Holliday (Orioles)

If Jackson Holliday was one thing in 2025, it was available. That won’t be the case to start 2026, as he is expected to start the year on the IL after he fractured his hamate bone. But in 2025, he showed some improvements. Across 149 games, he hit .242/.314/.375 with 17 home runs, 55 RBIs, and a .690 OPS.

Those counting stats aren’t eye-popping, but they are better than what Orioles fans saw in 2024. When you dive a little deeper, you see that Jackson struggles in the same way as Dominguez, he can’t hit lefties. Here are his splits.

• Vs. RHP: .735 OPS

• Vs. LHP: .572 OPS

2025 saw progression from 2024, if 2026 shows the same growth, then Orioles fans will start to feel better about their teams foundation. Let’s not forget that Holliday is still only 22 years old. If he can have a mid .700 OPS in 2026, Orioles fans should be ecstatic.

Adley Rutschman (Orioles)

Rutschman’s 2025 was defined by dual oblique injuries that limited him to just 90 games. While his .220/.307/.366 slash line and 90 OPS+ are career lows; the real pressure in 2026 comes from the rise of Basallo. Now, the Orioles have made it clear that whoever isn’t catching will go to DH or 1B. However, Rutschman is 28 years old now and under team control until the end of 2027. A 30-year-old maybe DH with a 90 OPS+ is not going to get a big contract.

The metrics show a hitter who hasn’t lost his eye; his 15.6% strikeout rate is still elite, but he isn’t producing anything in his slash line. His average exit velocity (89.4 mph) plummeted, suggesting the oblique issues sapped the torque from his swing, but in reality, he has never hit the ball hard.

I had Adley as one of my most overrated players entering 2025, and I was crucified for it. But when you zoom out and look at the big picture, the Orioles are desperate for someone to lead this team, and it was supposed to be Adley.

Of all the players on this list, I think Adley has the most to prove.

Oneil Cruz (Pirates)

Cruz was the purest chaos player in 2025: elite pop meets box score volatility. He made history as the first player ever to pair 20 home runs and 38 steals with a .200 average. His power is indisputable—he set a Statcast record with a 122.9 mph moonshot—but his floor is dangerously low.

The missing piece is the approach against southpaws. In 2025, Cruz hit a staggering .102 against lefties, a hole in his game that pitchers exploited all season. Defensively, the move to center field was a work in progress; despite his speed, his -14 Defensive Runs Saved and league-leading 11 errors at the position proved that raw athleticism isn’t a substitute for instincts.

2026 isn’t about whether he can be a superstar; it’s about whether he can even be a starter. If he trims that 32.0% strikeout rate and continues his off-season training with Gold Glovers like Kevin Kiermaier, he has a 6-WAR ceiling. If not, the ‘chaos’ label might start to feel more like a liability than an asset.

Bryce Harper (Phillies)

Harper’s 2025 wasn’t bad, it was very good by almost any standard. Across 132 games, he posted a 131 wRC+ and a .368 xwOBA, which still rank in the top 6% of the league.

However, the counting stats felt slightly “less elite”. His 27 homers were his fewest in a healthy season since 2016, and his .261 average was a significant dip from his career average of .280. But the real scrutiny stems from October. After a quiet .200 AVG / .600 OPS in the NLDS.

He doesn’t have to prove he’s elite; just go look at all the red on his Savant page. He has to prove he can be elite in October.

Triston Casas (Red Sox)

I know what you are thinking. ‘Dean has been against Triston Casas for three years now.’ And while you are correct, he is still a member of the Red Sox, so he deserves attention. But after the Red Sox traded for Willson Contreras to man first base, the writing is on the wall.

Casas’ 2025 was a nightmare: a ruptured patellar tendon in May limited him to just 29 games and a dismal .182 average. The recovery for that injury is a full year, meaning Casas likely won’t even see a major league pitch until May 2026.

If Casas can show even a glimpse of his 2023 form—where he boasted a .857 OPS and elite 92nd percentile xwOBA—the Red Sox should flip him immediately. He still has the discipline (13.9% career walk rate), but with a 44.4% Hard-Hit rate that was trending down before the injury, he has to prove the power hasn’t evaporated. In 2026, he isn’t playing for a spot in Boston; he’s auditioning for the rest of the league.

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While Perdomo is coming off a massive 7.0 WAR breakout campaign in 2025 that turned heads across the league, most major projection systems are calling for a significant 'regression to the mean' this year. Balancing a historic outlier season against the steady against one of the deepest positions wasn’t easy. So feel free to rip me apart.

Here is how I see the most talented position in baseball shaking out in 2026.

1) Bobby Witt Jr. — Kansas City Royals

2025 Stats

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .295 / .351 / .501

• Home Runs: 23

• WAR: 7.1

2026 Prediction

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .292 / .350 / .515

• Home Runs: 31

• WAR: 7.3

2) Gunnar Henderson — Baltimore Orioles

2025 Stats

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .274 / .349 / .438

• Home Runs: 17

• WAR: 5.3

2026 Prediction

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .275 / .354 / .492

• Home Runs: 29

• WAR: 5.8

3) Francisco Lindor — New York Mets

2025 Stats

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .267 / .346 / .466

• Home Runs: 31

• WAR: 5.9

2026 Prediction

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .260 / .334 / .450

• Home Runs: 26

• WAR: 5.1

4) Trea Turner — Philadelphia Phillies

2025 Stats

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .304/ .355/ .457

• Home Runs: 15

• WAR: 5.4

2026 Prediction

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .280 / .341 / .445

• Home Run: 18

• WAR: 4.8

5) Elly De La Cruz — Cincinnati Reds

2025 Stats

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .264 / .336 / .440

• Home Runs: 22

• WAR: 3.6

2026 Prediction

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .272 / .327 / .485

• Home Runs: 32

• WAR: 5.5

6) Corey Seager — Texas Rangers

2025 Stats

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .271 / .373 / .487

• Home Runs: 21

• WAR: 6.2

2026 Prediction

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .275 / .357 / .502

• HR: 27

• WAR: 4.9

7) Mookie Betts — Los Angeles Dodgers

2025 Stats

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .258 / .326 / .406

• Home Runs: 20

• WAR: 4.9

2026 Prediction

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .266 / .352 / .460

• Home Runs: 23

• WAR: 4.9

8) Geraldo Perdomo — Arizona Diamondbacks

2025 Stats

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .290/ .389/ .462

• Home Runs: 20

• WAR: 7.0

2026 Prediction

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .260 / .342 / .389

• Home Run: 13

• WAR: 3.2

9) CJ Abrams — Washington Nationals

2025 Stats

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .257/ .315/ .433

• Home Runs: 19

• WAR: 3.4

2026 Prediction

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .247 / .306 / .419

• Home Run: 22

• WAR: 2.8

10) Masyn Winn — St. Louis Cardinals

2025 Stats

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .253/ .310/ .363

• Home Runs: 9 HR

• WAR: 2.2

2026 Prediction

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .254 / .315 / .361

• Home Runs: 14

• WAR: 3.0

1. José Ramírez — Cleveland Guardians

2025
Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .283 / .360 / .503
Home Runs: 30
RBI: 85
WAR: 5.8

2026 Prediction

(AVG/OBP/SLG): .280 / .360 / .520
2026 Home Runs: 34
2026 RBI: 92
2026 WAR: 5.5

2. Manny Machado — San Diego Padres

2025
Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .275 / .335 / .460
Home Runs: 27
RBI: 95
WAR: 4.1

2026 Prediction

AVG/OBP/SLG: .284 / .374 / .483
2026 Home Runs: 30
2026 WAR: 4.5

3. Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays

2025
Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .264 / .311 / .535
Home Runs: 45
RBI: 110
WAR: 4.4

2026 Prediction

(AVG/OBP/SLG): .258 / .308 / .502
2026 Home Runs: 32
2026 RBI: 103
2026 WAR: 4.2

4. Maikel Garcia — Kansas City Royals

2025
Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .286 / .351 / .449
Home Runs: 16
RBI: 74
WAR: 5.8

2026 Prediction

(AVG/OBP/SLG): .275 / .335 / .430
2026 Home Runs: 18
2026 RBI: 76
2026 WAR: 4.5

5. Matt Chapman — San Francisco Giants

2025
Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .231 / .340 / .430
Home Runs: 21
RBI: 61
WAR: 4.1

2026 Prediction

(AVG/OBP/SLG): .246 / .347 / .452
2026 Home Runs: 25
2026 WAR: 4.5

6. Austin Riley — Atlanta Braves

2025 (verified MLB regular-season)
Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .260 / .309 / .428
Home Runs: 16
RBI: 54
WAR: 1.3

2026 Prediction

(AVG/OBP/SLG): .270 / .350 / .510
2026 Home Runs: 32
2026 WAR: 4.0

7. Alex Bregman — Chicago Cubs

2025
Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .273 / .360 / .462
Home Runs: 18
RBI: 62
WAR: 3.5

2026 Prediction

(AVG/OBP/SLG): .264 / .358 / .439
2026 Home Runs: 23
2026 WAR: 3.5

8. Bo Bichette — New York Mets

2025
Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .311 / .357 / .483
Home Runs: 18
RBI: 94
WAR:

2026 Prediction

2026 Prediction (AVG/OBP/SLG): .305 / .340 / .473
2026 Home Runs: 20
2026 WAR: 3.8

9. Max Muncy — Los Angeles Dodgers

2025
Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .243 / .376 / .470
Home Runs: 19
RBI: 67
WAR: 3.6

2026 Prediction
2026 Prediction (AVG/OBP/SLG): .240 / .350 / .480
2026 Home Runs: 30
2026 WAR: 3.5

10. Jordan Westburg — Baltimore Orioles

2025
Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .265 / .313 / .457
Home Runs: 17
RBI: 41
WAR: 1.6

2026 Prediction

(AVG/OBP/SLG): .265 / .335 / .480
2026 Home Runs: 25
2026 WAR: 3.8

I debated whether or not to move Brendan Donovan up now that he is with the Mariners, but I will be keeping him at 7 for now.

Just a reminder that all the graphics can be found over at www.statsoldier.com

1. Ketel Marte — Arizona Diamondbacks

2025

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .295 / .372 / .555

• Home Runs: 38

• WAR: 5.7

2026 Projection

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .280 / .365 / .495

• Home Runs: 28

• WAR: 4.8

2. Brice Turang — Milwaukee Brewers

2025

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .288 / .359 / .435

• Home Runs: 18

• WAR: 4.4

2026 Projection

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .275 / .345 / .420

• Home Runs: 21

• WAR: 4.2

3. Nico Hoerner — Chicago Cubs

2025

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .278 / .339 / .410

• Home Runs: 11

• WAR: 4.3

2026 Projection

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .285 / .339 / .391

• Home Runs: 14

• WAR: 4.0

4. Ernie Clement — Toronto Blue Jays

2025

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .281 / .325 / .425

• Home Runs: 15

• WAR: 2.2

2026 Projection

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .278 / .319 / .400

• Home Runs: 17

• WAR: 3.2

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. — New York Yankees

2025

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .242 / .332 / .481

• Home Runs: 31

• WAR: 4.4

2026 Projection

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .242 / .318 / .448

• Home Runs: 30

• WAR: 3.9

6. Bryson Stott — Philadelphia Phillies

2025

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .271 / .339 / .402

• Home Runs: 17

• WAR: 3.5

2026 Projection

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .262 / .332 / .394

• Home Runs: 20

• WAR: 3.2

7. Brendan Donovan — Seattle Mariners

2025

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .287 / .353 / .422

• Home Runs: 10

• WAR: 2.9

2026 Projection

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .280 / .353 / .412

• Home Runs: 12

• WAR: 3.0

8. Jake Cronenworth — San Diego Padres

2025

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .279 / .346 / .427

• Home Runs: 19

• WAR: 2.9

2026 Projection

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .259 / .332 / .398

• Home Runs: 19

• WAR: 2.4

9. Ozzie Albies — Atlanta Braves

2025

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .260 / .322 / .431

• Home Runs: 21

• WAR: 2.4

2026 Projection

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .258 / .318 / .415

• Home Runs: 20

• WAR: 2.6

10. Jackson Holliday — Baltimore Orioles

2025

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .270 / .340 / .399

• Home Runs: 10

• WAR: 1.5

2026 Projection

• Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG): .264 / .333 / .395

• Home Runs: 18

• WAR: 2.4

I made some changes and added images from statsoldier.com. If you haven’t gone over there yet, make sure to do so as soon as possible. Plenty of fun stuff to do!

For now, here is my Top 10 First Basemen of All-Time. Keep an eye out for all my Second Base rankings coming out next week.

10. Jeff Bagwell

• Key Stats: .297 AVG, 449 HR, 1,529 RBI, .948 OPS, 200 SB

• bWAR: 79.9

• WAR7: 48.3

• JAWS: 64.1

• Accolades: Rookie of The Year, 1x MVP, 3x Silver Slugger, 1x Gold Glove

• Why: When I did this list last year, Freddie Freeman had this spot. Over that time, I began to appreciate Bagwell’s numbers more. Since I used WAR7 and JAWS as reference numbers, it was inconsiderate of me to leave Bagwell off this list. He was receiving MVP votes into his 30s, where other players (Eddie Murray being one) dropped off after hitting the big 3-0.

9. Cap Anson

• Key Stats: .334 AVG, 97 HR, 2,075 RBI

• bWAR: 94.4

• WAR7: 41.8

• JAWS: 68.1

• Defensive WAR: 5.0 (2nd all-time among 1B)

• Accolades: Pioneering 19th-century star, 5 NL Pennants as player-manager

• Why: Cap Anson was baseball’s first superstar. He was a manager/player and ran his team like an army. As a teetotaler myself, I admire his ban on alcohol. He is fourth in bWAR among all first basemen and one of the better defenders. He is one of two players from the early days of baseball that I have on this list, and it was actually the amount that Anson played that puts him here at #9. His career spanned 27 seasons! With 3,000 more ABs than Connor, I decided to put him at 9.

8. Roger Connor

• Key Stats: .316 AVG, 138 HR, 1,323 RBI

• bWAR: 84.3

• WAR7: 47.0

• JAWS: 65.6

• Defensive WAR: 6.3 (best all-time among 1B)

• Why: Connor was Babe Ruth before there was Babe Ruth. He was baseball’s home run king for 23 seasons before the Babe broke it in 1921. He also happens to have the most dWAR of any first baseman in history. He also won two National League Championships, and his counterpart Cap Anson won ZERO.

7. Johnny Mize

• Key Stats: .312 AVG, 359 HR, 1,337 RBI, .959 OPS

• bWAR: 70.6

• WAR7: 48.4

• JAWS: 59.5

• Accolades: 10x All-Star, 5x World Series Champion

• Note: Lost three prime years to WWII

• Why: We now get into some mid-century players, starting with Johnny Mize. Mize’s numbers are slightly deflated due to losing three of his prime seasons to military service during World War II. He is 5th in WAR7 amongst first basemen and only trails Lou Gehrig in WS rings.

6. Miguel Cabrera

• Key Stats: .306 AVG, 511 HR, 1,881 RBI, .901 OPS

• Accolades: 2 MVPs, Triple Crown (2012), 12x All-Star, 7x Silver Slugger, 1x World Series

• bWAR: 67.1

• WAR7: 44.8

• JAWS: 56.0

• Why: I changed my list while writing and moved Miguel Cabrera back a spot. You will see a little bit of why below, but as I dug deeper, I just forgot how bad Miguel Cabrera’s drop-off was. Once he hit 34, he fell off a cliff and accumulated -2.6 bWAR over his last six seasons. In that time, he was able to crawl over 3,000 hits and 500 home runs, but it was ugly. If he were to have retired after 2016, he would have finished with a .321 BA and a .961 OPS. Alright, enough negative talk. His 2009-2013 numbers are just insane. Outside of Pujols, Bonds, Trout, and maybe Judge, it was the most remarkable stretch I have ever seen. I feel comfortable with him here, and I think most people would agree that it is a fair spot.

5. Hank Greenberg

• Key Stats: .313 AVG, 331 HR, 1,276 RBI, 1.017 OPS

• Accolades: 2x MVP, 2x World Series Champion, 4x All-Star

• bWAR: 55.5

• WAR7: 46.5

• JAWS: 51.0

• Note: Lost four and a half seasons to WWII

• Why: Similar to Mize, WWII shortened Greenberg’s career, yet his peak performance places him firmly among the all-time greats. His two MVP awards and his ability to dominate offensively in a relatively short career speak volumes about his talent. Could you criticize this and say he doesn’t have the counting stats to be #5? Sure. But the dude was the first MLB player to sign up and go fight the Nazis. He also served longer than any other MLB player. So yeah, Jeff Bagwell can step aside.

4. Frank Thomas

• Key Stats: .301 AVG, 521 HR, 1,704 RBI, .974 OPS

• bWAR: 73.8

• WAR7: 45.4

• JAWS: 59.6

• Accolades: 2 MVPs, 5x All-Star, 4x Silver Slugger

• Why: The Big Hurt dominated the 1990s offensively and was one of baseball’s most consistent on-base machines. While he lacks any significant defensive number, he stands out for being a dominant power hitter in a time when most sluggers were taking something a little extra. He was serviceable until he hit 40 and then walked away from baseball. I think #4 is a more than fair spot for Thomas. I can see some people wanting Cabrera here, but again, Cabrera fell off a cliff where Thomas didn’t.

3. Jimmie Foxx

• Key Stats: .325 AVG, 534 HR, 1,922 RBI, 1.038 OPS

• bWAR: 101.5

• WAR7: 57.9

• JAWS: 75.1

• Accolades: 3 MVPs, 9x All-Star, 2x World Series Champion, Triple Crown (1933)

• Why: Foxx was Gehrig’s greatest rival and perhaps the only one who could match his offensive prowess. What is super interesting about Foxx is that in the three years he won MVP, he also led in the league in WAR. While that might seem ordinary today, it was not common back in the day. If you follow our main account, you will see me breaking down WAR leaders by decade, and every decade, you see fewer and fewer MVPs. Foxx is the exception.

2. Albert Pujols

• Key Stats: .296 AVG, 703 HR, 2,218 RBI, .918 OPS

• bWAR: 101.5

• WAR7: 61.7

• JAWS: 81.6

• Accolades: 3 MVPs, 2x World Series Champion, 11x All-Star, 2x Gold Glove

• Why: If you know me, you know my opinion on players who took steroids. So, I am simply going to drop this post below and add that Pujols was Top 3 in WAR in 04 and 03, was 2nd in MVP voting in 02, and won ROY in 01.

1. Lou Gehrig

• Key Stats: .340 AVG, 493 HR, 1,995 RBI, 1.080 OPS

• bWAR: 113.7

• WAR7: 67.6

• JAWS: 90.7

• Accolades: 2 MVPs, 7x All-Star, Triple Crown (1934), 6x World Series Champion

• Why: First in WAR, first in WAR7, and first in JAWS. There is no debate here.