Finnegan had spent his entire career with the Nationals (debuted in 2020) and signed a 1 year, $6 million deal to return to Washington for the 2025 season. He was born in Detroit, so it’s a bit of a homecoming to get traded to the Tigers. Finnegan has been a solid back end of the bullpen option his entire career, something Detroit was lacking leading up to the trade deadline. This article is intended to breakdown the improvements we’ve seen since coming over to Detroit and what’s behind the recent success.

Washington Tenure

From 2021-2024, Kyle Finnegan was a reliably, consistent option for the Nationals to turn to at the end of games. 60-70 IP with a mid-3.50 ERA, a slightly above average K%, an average BB%, and back-to-back seasons ranked top 10 in the NL in saves. He struggled preventing hard contact the last two seasons contributing to a higher xERA than actual ERA. (3.76 ERA vs 4.70 xERA in 2023, 3.67 ERA vs 4.34 xERA in 2024). In fact, all expected numbers have gone up since 2022, indicating negative regression and potential future struggles.

The Detroit Tigers clearly saw something they liked in his profile to take a chance on him at the deadline.

Detroit Tenure

Kyle Finnegan has only pitched 11.2 innings with Detroit since the start of August but has made his impact felt in the bullpen. His surface level stats are great: 11.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 15 SO. The K-BB% is phenomenal, improving from 11.0% with the Nationals in the first half of the season to 32.5% with Detroit. Yes, the sample size is limited but the results speak for themself. His season ERA has dropped from 4.24 to 3.38 since joining the Tigers bullpen. How is he getting these improved results? I noticed three key changes to his pitch arsenal.

Arm Angle

Finnegan throws 3 pitches: a four seamer, split finger, and slider and the arm angle on all pitch types has changed since joining the Tigers. Since April to August, here are the average arm angle changes on each of his pitches:

Four seamer: 50° to 53.2°

Splitter: 45.7° to 49°

Slider: 48.3° to 53.4°

I’ll get into why this matters with the following changes.

Vertical Release Point

The point at which Finnegan releases the ball from his hand to the plate has also changed, even looking at a month to month comparison (July to August below).

Four seamer: 5.76 ft to 5.67 ft

Splitter: 5.66 to 5.57

Slider: unchanged

Dropping the vertical release point on his four seamer and splitter, combined with an increased arm angle gives those pitches new characteristics from the batter’s perspective. Although the actual pitch speed hasn’t changed, the path to the plate and perception has altered enough to give hitters troubles.

Pitch Usage

The pitch usage can go along way in changing a pitcher’s outcomes. It sounds simple but sometimes just throwing your most effective pitch, more often, is a recipe for success. Here’s how Finnegan’s pitch usage has changed from July to August:

Four seamer: 64.8% to 46.4%

Splitter: 25.6% to 48.3%

Slider: 9.6% to 5.3%

The slider has minimal changes, so we can ignore that during our analysis. The changes to the four seam and splitter usage are significant though. The Tigers have instructed him to throw the two essentially the same amount of time now. The splitter had the best results prior to coming to Detroit, so with the aforementioned changes (arm angle and vertical release point), it appears the splitter has become an even nastier pitch for him.

Results

Let’s compare the results from July to August on each pitch type, after breaking down the 3 changes the Tigers have made.

Four seamer (July): .348 BA, .522 SLG, .399 wOBA, 11.4 whiff %

Four seamer (Aug): .133 BA, .200 SLG, .207 wOBA, 8.1 whiff %

Splitter (July): .167 BA, .167 SLG, .225 wOBA, 52.6 whiff %

Splitter (Aug): .050 BA, .050 SLG, .044 wOBA, 52.5 whiff %

Slider (July): .250 BA, .250 SLG, .221 wOBA, 14.3 whiff %

Slider (Aug): .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 wOBA, 33.3 whiff % (only 8 pitches thrown)

Kyle Finnegan came into Detroit as an experienced backend of the bullpen arm with consistently average results. Through changes to his arm angle, vertical release point, and pitch usage, he’s become unhittable. The Tigers pitching development has gotten a lot of praise over the last few seasons and Finnegan is another example of why. A great add by Detroit and hopefully we continue to see dominant outings from Finnegan throughout the remainder of the season.

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Senior year of high school, McGonigle was named the Pennsylvania Gatorade Player of the Year in 2023 after batting .474 with 4 HRs and 16 RBI in 21 games played. The Detroit Tigers then selected him 37th overall in the 2023 MLB draft. On July 21, 2023, McGonigle signed with Detroit for $2.85M.

2023 - First Half Season of Minor League Ball

Kevin McGonigle, like most high school draftees, was assigned to the Florida Complex League to start his minor league career. He played 9 games there, striking out only 5 times to 11 walks in 45 plate appearances. He would finish his half season in Single A with the Lakeland Flying Tigers. There he played 12 games, hit 1 home run, stole 2 bases and walked 7 times to 5 strikeouts. An impressive start to his minor league career, but not enough of a sample to land him on the Top 30 prospects within the Tigers organization. Regardless, there was intrigue behind the 5’7”, 18 year old shortstop and his mature approach at the plate.

2024 - First Full Season of Minor League Ball

McGonigle started 2024 where he ended the season prior, in Lakeland. Across 60 games, he hit 4 home run, stole 20 bases, scored 40 runs, and had 37 RBI. Most importantly, he was still striking out less than he was walking. A 13% BB rate to a 9% K rate. His slash line was .326/.407/.470 with a 151 wRC+ (51% greater than league average). The power numbers were not there yet, but it was evident that this level of competition was not enough of a challenge for him.

McGonigle spent the rest of the 2024 season at High-A with the West Michigan Whitecaps. In 14 games, he hit 1 home run and stole 2 bases, while striking out 4 times and walking 11. The approach and patience at the plate was his true calling card and something that is valued among the Tigers organization. His season ended early with a hamate fracture, but he was still named the Florida State League MVP after the season. McGonigle rose to the 9th best prospect for the Tigers. The future was bright and scouts, player development, and coaches alike were excited to see him hit the ground running in 2025.

2025 - Second Full Season of Minor League Ball

After a quick 6 rehab games back in Single A-Lakeland, McGonigle was moved back to High A-West Michigan. Here is where he really started to shine and get the attention of the national media with his impressive performances. Across 36 games, he hit 7 home runs, stole 3 bases, scored 37 runs, and had 39 RBI. He slashed .372/.462/.648 with a 213 wRC+ and 1.110 OPS, still striking out less than he was walking. His 213 wRC+ currently leads all Minor League players at any level with at least 100 PA. It looks like the Tigers have found their shortstop of the future and Tigers fans were excited. Another home grown talent developing before their eyes.

McGonigle was deservedly selected to represent the Tigers at the 2025 All-Star Futures Game and on July 7, was promoted to AA-Erie. In 29 games since his promotion, he’s continued to show off his incredible eye at the plate while also increasing his power output. He’s hit 7 home runs to go along with 4 steals, 20 runs, and 27 RBI. Good for a slash line of .275/.372/.578 and a 170 wRC+. His 170 wRC+ at AA is good for 30th best among all Minor League players at any level with at least 100 PA. So he’s listed twice in the top 30, performing at two levels of Minor League baseball in the same season, which is unheard of. Across 71 games played in 2025, he’s hit 14 HRs, has a 189 wRC+ and a 1.020 OPS. McGonigle, according to FanGraphs, is now ranked as the #1 overall prospect in baseball just a few weeks back.

What’s to Come

Tigers fans are calling for a promotion to the big leagues by the end of the season to help with the postseason push and I’m all for it. Give him a taste of baseball on the biggest stage and what it takes to succeed. Let him get to know his future teammates, the coaching staff, even the Detroit Tigers facilities and environment. I’m not saying have him start at shortstop in a postseason game, but he would be a valuable pinch runner late in a game. Make him feel valued and get him some professional level experience. Come the offseason, have him continue to work with the major league guys and prep him for the possibility of coming out of Spring Training on the Opening Day roster for the 2026 Detroit Tigers. Top athletes like this desire the challenge and see if he can rise to the occasion. Worst case, he starts 2026 with Triple A-Toledo. I’m confident with his approach at the plate that he’ll be pounding down the door to get called up to Detroit in no time.

The Detroit Tigers farm system is one of the top in baseball with McGonigle and 3 other players ranked in the top 100 overall. The Tigers are one of baseball’s best this season and with players like McGonigle coming up through the farm system, the organization’s future looks even better. After a decade or so of watching a struggling baseball team, I’m really excited to see where this team is headed with Kevin McGonigle at the forefront.

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As of August 7th, the six division leaders, safe from the Wild Card discussion, are the Blue Jays, Tigers, and Astros in the American League and the Brewers, Dodgers, and Phillies for the National League.

American League

Boston Red Sox (64-52) +2.5 G - First Wild Card Spot

The Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 and 11-7 since the All-Star Break (3rd best in the AL). After trading away Rafael Devers, the team has started playing more like a team. Roman Anthony is proving to be worth the hype and Trevor Story is in the middle of a career resurgence. Alex Cora is managing to the platoon advantages while Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are pitching quality starts right and left.

Strength: Lineup depth and versatility

Weakness: Rotation reliability and durability

Confidence Rating: 7/10

Seattle Mariners (63-53) +1.5 G - Second Wild Card Spot

The Mariners have won 4 in a row and are 12-8 since the All-Star Break (4th best in the AL). Their starting rotation is turning back into form as George Kirby and Logan Gilbert regain their health. The lineup is deep for the first time in awhile after acquiring Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez at the deadline. Julio Rodriguez is having his typical resurgent second half and Cal Raleigh is setting offensive records for a catcher. Not to mention a top 5 closer and really elite set up options in the bullpen. This team is poised for a deep postseason run.

Strength: Rotation depth

Weakness: Lack of postseason experience

Confidence Rating: 10/10*

*I think Seattle has a strong chance to win the division.

New York Yankees (61-54) - Third Wild Card Spot

The Yankees has struggled lately, losing 6 of their last 10 and going 8-11 since the All-Star Break. Aaron Judge got hurt, Max Fried hasn’t been his ace-like self, and their new bullpen pieces have been inconsistent to start their tenure with New York. Mental errors have also cost them a game here and there. Whether it’s living up to the New York media hype or expectations after a second place finish last season, the Yankees are showing where their holes lie. A lot of weight rests of how Aaron Judge produces offensively. If they can’t get consistent quality outings from Fried and Carlos Rodon, their rotation and bullpen durability is going to suffer. Can they overcome these shortcomings and make it back into the postseason?

Strength: Star power

Weakness: Aaron Judge or bust

Confidence Rating: 5/10

Cleveland Guardians (59-55) 1.5 GB - First Team Out

The Guardians have won 3 straight and have the best record in the AL since the All-Star Break at 13-6. However, playing mostly lackluster teams in the second half: the A’s, Orioles, Royals, Rockies, Twins, and Mets. The Guardians are known for getting the most out of their lineup, regardless of name value. Their rotation is always solid and backend of the bullpen will continue to lock down games for them. Having said that, I still see this as just a recent hot streak and don’t think the Guardians will be able to keep up this pace.

Strength: Jose Ramirez and solid rotation

Weakness: Lacking lineup depth

Confidence Rating: 2/10

Texas Rangers (60-56) 1.5 GB - Second Team Out

The Rangers have flirted with a .500 record all season long but are 12-7 since the All-Star Break (T-3rd best in the MLB). The Rangers offense has surprisingly struggled all season long, but is starting to show signs of life lately. Joc Pederson is back from injury and guys like Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia are returning to form. Their lineup, when playing well, is one of the deepest in the sport and a rotation headlined by Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi will be difficult for any team to beat in a best of 3 postseason series. The question is can the bullpen keep them in close games and can the offense continue to dig themselves out of their early season cold spell.

Strength: Top of rotation and lineup depth

Weakness: Bullpen stability

Confidence Rating: 6/10

Kansas City Royals (57-58) 4.0 GB - Third Team Out

The Royals, like the Rangers, are another team that has struggled to get above the .500 mark all season but find themselves at 10-8 in the second half of the season so far. Bobby Witt Jr has been great but is not playing at the superstar MVP level he was last season. Injuries to their rotation (Kris Bubic, Michael Lorenzen, Cole Ragans) and production from their outfield has prevented them from going on a real run. Some players have stepped up but is it enough to get them to the postseason?

Strength: Bobby Witt Jr and Salvador Perez

Weakness: Lineup depth and rotation health

Confidence Rating: 1/10

Tampa Bay Rays (57-59) 4.5 GB - Fourth Team Out

The Rays have really struggled in the second half, going 5-12 since the break. Which is interesting given that I think their team got better on paper after the trade deadline. A costly injury to Jonathan Aranda impacted their lineup depth but overall their team shouldn’t be doing as poor as it has been. Junior Caminero is putting together an excellent season for a 22 year old and Yandy Diaz is having a career best year. The rotation has had its struggles lately and hasn’t been able to pitch very deep into games either. This team lacks the big names but so has every other successful Rays team in the past. I’m not sure there’s enough there to overcome their shortcomings this season though.

Strength: Junior Caminero

Weakness: Rotation depth and health

Confidence Rating: 3/10

National League

Chicago Cubs (66-48) +3.5 G - First Wild Card Spot

The Cubs at one point had one of the best records in all of baseball but they’ve gone 9-9 in the second half and given the division lead to the surging Milwaukee Brewers. A tremendous defensive team with lots of power bats in the lineup will help keep them in games. They possess lots of speed on the basepaths that will help to manufacture an extra run or two when in a pinch, as well as decent bullpen depth. Their rotation has some holes though and could be the Achilles heel for the Cubs in a short best of 3 Wild Card series.

Strength: Lineup depth

Weakness: Rotation depth

Confidence Rating: 10/10*

*Similar to Seattle in the AL, I think the Cubs have a strong chance to win the division still

San Diego Padres (64-51) +1.0 G - Second Wild Card Spot

The Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 and 12-7 in the second half (2nd best among NL teams). Their offense was hitting a lull right before the break but has turned it back on since then. Guys like Tatis, Merrill, and Bogaerts are all playing much better lately. Not to mention, the Padres made the most significant moves at the trade deadline. Their lineup is complete now after adding Ryan O’Hearn to mash RHP and Ramon Laureano for his lockdown defense and resurging bat. The Padres already had one of the top bullpens in the MLB and now with Mason Miller, it seems unhittable. A very scary team to face in a best of 3 Wild Card series.

Strength: Lineup and bullpen depth

Weakness: Rotation stability

Confidence Rating: 10/10

New York Mets (63-52) - Third Wild Card Spot

The Mets have hit a wall. They’ve won 1 of their last 9 games played, including being swept by the Guardians. The lineup has really struggled to hit as the rotation has struggled to keep runs off the board. Compounding issues that will lead to a bad stretch of games like this. The star power on this team is tops in the league so a hot streak is coming soon. Not to mention, the deadline acquisitions they made helped solidify an already deep bullpen (Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, Gregory Soto) and lineup (Cedric Mullins). I’m not overly worried about this Mets team.

Strength: Lineup and bullpen depth

Weakness: Rotation durability

Confidence Rating: 8/10

Cincinnati Reds (60-56) - 3.5 GB - First Team Out

The Reds have hovered around .500 all season and are finally starting to trend in the right direction. The young core is playing well and the trades they made at the deadline should strengthen their chances at a postseason run. Elly De La Cruz is a super star and will help carry this team with help from Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, and Noelvi Marte. The rotation is solid but losing Nick Lodolo to a blister could be a bigger issue than first realized. The bullpen depth is worrisome too especially if it has to go toe to toe with some of the aforementioned top bullpens. I am really encouraged with the progress the Reds have made this season but I think the top 3 teams listed (Cubs, Padres, and Mets) have too much going for them to compete with.

Strength: Rotation depth

Weakness: Thump in the lineup

Confidence Rating: 2/10

San Francisco Giants (58-57) - 5.0 GB - Second Team Out

The Giants meet the threshold for this exercise but only due to their strong first half of the season. Since the break, they are 6-12 and traded away key players at the deadline. Their front office was in sell mode therefore I don’t see them making the postseason this year.

Strength: Good pieces to build around for 2026

Weakness: Rotation depth

Confidence Rating: 0/10

Postseason Picture

Here’s how I see the postseason shaping out, seeding aside, given the breakdowns I provided above.

AL: Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Red Sox, Mariners, Yankees/Rangers

NL: Brewers, Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Mets

Postseason baseball is a completely different version of the sport. Strategies change, atmospheres intensify, and the stakes climax. It’s the most entertaining playoffs of any sport and I am looking forward to seeing which twelve teams make it to the promised land this season.

Acquired RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak for C/1B prospect Enrique Jimenez

Paddack (29) has a 4.77 ERA over 117.0 IP this season. He is a veteran starting pitcher that will help fill the void of the lost innings due to Reese Olson’s season ending injury. At 6’5’’, he generates great extension off the mound making his pitches play up. He also has above average control of those pitches, demonstrated by his miniscule 5.5 BB% this season. There’s value in relying on someone to pick up the ball and pitch every 5th day, eating up 4-6 innings a start; and giving the proper rest days for guys like Skubal and Flaherty. His first start in a Tigers uniform came on July 30th vs Arizona. His line from that game: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO. Let’s see what Chris Fetter can get out of Paddack down the stretch.

Randy Dobnak (30) will start in AAA with the Mud Hends but I expect we see him as a long relief option once rosters expand later in the season.

Acquired RHP Rafael Montero for INF prospect Jim Jarvis

Montero (34) has a 5.40 ERA across 38.1 IP in 2025, but a 3.61 xERA. Once an elite bullpen option for the Houston Astros back in 2022, but has since struggled with command (2.4 K-BB% in 2024, 9.6 K-BB% in 2025). He has added a splitter this season that’s now his most used pitch at 47.3% and has generated great results. A .192 BA and .342 SLG with a 35.1 Whiff%. His fastball averages 95 mph but gets crushed (.507 xSLG). If he can increase the ground ball rate and limit the hard contact, there might be something here. I have faith that Fetter can find something in Montero’s profile to maximize his success, even if it’s in short outings out of the pen.

Acquired RHP Paul Sewald for a player to be named later or cash

Sewald (35) has a 4.70 ERA across only 15.1 IP in 2025 and is currently on the IL with a strained shoulder. The Tigers expect him to be back for the stretch run and postseason. Sewald has been a steady bullpen piece for a handful of seasons now. He ranks 10th among all RPs since 2021 in K-BB% at 24.2%. He’s mainly a two pitch pitcher (fastball and sweeper), but both generate great results. A 27% Whiff% on the four seam and a 37.2% Whiff% on the sweeper. Once he comes back healthy, I think the Tigers got a strong back end of the bullpen option to help lockdown games in the postseason.

Acquired RHP Kyle Finnegan for SP prospects Josh Randall and RJ Sales

Finnegan (33) has a 4.38 ERA over 39.0 IP in 2025. Born in Detroit, he’s spent his entire career as a relief pitcher for the Washington Nationals. Finnegan has crossed the 20 save threshold in back-to-back-to-back seasons and has the 3rd most saves among all RPs since 2023. The high leverage experience is there as well as some positive “under the hood” metrics this season. A .243 xBA, .375 xSLG, .303 xwOBA, and a 3.51 xERA are all solid numbers to see. Overall the swing and miss isn’t there, but he generates a 32.6% Whiff% on his splitter and has an above average ground ball rate. Finnegan will be a welcomed addition to the back of the bullpen as the Tigers strive for a deep postseason run.

Acquired RHP Codi Heuer for cash

Heuer (29) has only pitched 1.1 inning in the majors since 2021, so he will be placed in AAA to start his tenure with the Tigers. He had some success in 2021 with the Cubs (a 3.14 ERA over 28.2 IP), so there’s potential but I don’t expect much out of him with the Tigers in 2025.

Acquired RHP Charlie Morton for LHP prospect Micah Ashman

Morton (41) has a 5.42 ERA over 101.1 IP this season. However, since May 10th he has a 3.62 ERA over 69.2 IP. Morton is another arm, like Paddack, that will help eat a lot of innings down the stretch for the Tigers as they set their sights on the postseason. There’s a lot of postseason experience for Morton, a valuable asset for a young ball club. Known for his curveball, his most used pitch, still generates a 33.9% Whiff% with a .236 xBA and .379 xSLG. His four seam still averages 94.2 mph and generates a .201 xBA too. Morton is prone to the long ball, averaging 1.42 HR/9 (MLB average is 0.89), but Comerica Park’s extreme pitcher-friendly dimensions should help minimize some of that. I’m curious to see what changes Fetter makes to utilize the most of Morton’s expiring abilities.

Recap

Tigers Deadline Grade: C

The Tigers biggest needs were a power hitter (preferably right handed), starting pitching, and bullpen help. The front office addressed two of the three needs. Albeit, more inexpensive, less flashy options. Yet, I think there’s still untapped value in some of the pieces acquired. Now that the deadline has passed let’s look forward to the impact each of the new additions will make to help this 2025 Detroit Tigers team towards the finish line.

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Recap

Let’s first recap the trades that have already happened involving players within this division:

• The Chicago White Sox traded away OF Austin Slater to the New York Yankees for RHP Gage Ziehl (Yankees 18th ranked prospect)

• The Detroit Tigers acquired RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak from the Minnesota Twins for C/1B Enrique Jimenez (Tigers 14th ranked prospect)

• The Kansas City Royals acquired OF Randal Grichuk from the Arizona Diamondbacks for RHP Andrew Hoffman

• The Minnesota Twins traded away RHP Jhoan Duran to the Philadelphia Phillies for RHP Mick Abel (Phillies 6th ranked prospect) and C Eduardo Tait (4th ranked prospect)

What’s to Come

The disparity in the AL Central makes it a captivating division to analyze pre-trade deadline. There’s likely one buyer in the Tigers and three sellers in the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox, with the Royals not really moving the needle either way. Let’s breakdown each team, going in order of the standings.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers losing Reese Olson makes adding more SP depth, in addition to Paddack, imperative. Alex Cobb is supposedly starting a rehab assignment but I’m not putting any eggs in that basket. To give me confidence in a deep postseason run, I'd love to see them acquire a veteran starter, third baseman, and a relief pitcher. Predictions:

Acquire: RHP Merrill Kelly, 3B Eugenio Suarez, and Dennis Santana/Raisel Iglesias/Pete Fairbanks

Kelly and Suarez in a package would fill the gaps perfectly for the Tigers but it’s going to take a haul of prospects to get it done. The Tigers are one of those teams with a rich enough farm system to complete this deal. On top of that, an above average, not elite closer, is what I’m hoping for. Given what the Phillies had to give up for Duran, I don’t want to deplete the farm just for a closer.

Kansas City Royals

Given the Royals current position in the Wild Card race (3.5 GB) and their 2024 postseason appearance with virtually the same roster, I don’t foresee them making any significant moves to sell or buy. Extending a potential trade candidate in Seth Lugo put the icing on the cake that they were going to stick it out with this roster. With Cole Ragans and Jac Caglianone set to return at some point in August, the Royals could make a postseason push if they gain momentum at the right time. No true predictions since I see them staying put.

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians are the most mysterious team within this division to predict. An organization that never truly sells as they like to keep their window to win always open. However, with the recent gambling suspension of their All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, I think all bets are off (pun intended). Predictions:

Trade Away: OF Steven Kwan, 1B Carlos Santana, SP Shane Bieber

Kwan and Bieber will get very solid returns for the Guardians organization. Santana is a veteran, with serviceable defense and a good eye at the plate that would give a contending team some depth.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins are a bit unpredictable as well. They lack stellar offensive pieces but have a very strong and deep bullpen that buying teams could pluck from. Already ranked as a top 10 farm system before the start of the 2025 season, the Twins got even better in adding Abel and Tait for Duran. I think a couple more deals could get prospect folks talking about this Twins organization as a top 5 farm heading into 2026. Predictions:

Trade Away: UT Willi Castro, OF Harrison Bader, SS Carlos Correa, RP Griffin Jax, RP Danny Coulombe

Castro and Bader will both net average prospects in return. Coulombe is a solid lefty middle-relief option that could net a decent return. Rumors have swirled about the Astros reuniting with Correa and I think that’s highly likely given the “all-in” attitude that the Houston organization operates with. The Twins should receive a solid return for Correa, as well as Jax, being one of the top relievers left in the market.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox will try their best to sell off as many assets as they can before the deadline tomorrow. This team is trending up as the youth movement takes over and they hope to add more top prospects to their farm. Predictions:

Trade Away: OF Luis Robert Jr, OF Michael A. Taylor, RHP Adrian Houser, RHP Aaron Civale

Luis Robert Jr expects to be one of the bigger bats dealt, so the White Sox should receive a substantial return for him. Taylor still plays above average defense and hits the ball fairly hard. I could see him being traded away as a depth piece to a contending team. Houser had a bit of a renaissance in Chicago and will be one of the better SPs dealt away, so that should net a decent return. The White Sox acquired Civale for Andrew Vaughn earlier in the season as a clear rental in hopes to get a prospect back from a contender at the deadline, we’ll see if that works out for them.

Summary

The AL Central has been fairly quiet so far but I expect several moves to be made still prior to tomorrow’s deadline, as the Tigers and Royals eye potential postseason runs and the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox look to the future. Seeing new faces in different uniforms post-deadline is always an adjustment but also a true indicator that postseason baseball is around the corner. I am looking forward to the next impactful move that could shape this division’s outcome for the remainder of 2025 or years to come.

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Minor Leagues

2019

Riley Greene spent time in three levels of the Tigers organization in 2019 (Rookie, Low A, and High A). His stats: 251 PA, .271 AVG, .347 OBP, .403 SLG, 5 HR, 34 R, 28 RBI, 5 SB, 125 wRC+. An impressive showing for an 18 year old, so far living up to the high draft pick.

2020

Covid-19 caused the cancellation of MiLB and a lost season for Riley Greene. What would have been a crucial second year of development for Greene was no longer an option. Concerns about interrupting or slowing down his progression swirled in the media. How would he bounce back in 2021 or even worse would that season get cancelled to? The unknown added pressure for Riley Greene to prove his worth.

2021

Minor League baseball was back and so was Riley Greene. He started the season in AA and ascended to AAA. His stats: 558 PA, .301 AVG, .387 OBP, .534 SLG, 24 HR, 95 R, 84 RBI, 16 SB, 147 wRC+. He was getting better as the competition got tougher. The hype regained momentum as Detroit Tigers fans awaited their top prospect’s arrival to the big leagues.

2022

Riley Greene was set to make the Opening Day roster with the Tigers as a 21 year old but a fractured foot delayed those plans. He missed the start of the season, then played 15 games in AAA, before debuting with Detroit on June 18, 2022. The highlight of that season was his first career home run coming as a walk off against division rival, Kansas City. His stats: 418 PA, .253 AVG, .321 OBP, .362 SLG, 5 HR, 46 R, 42 RBI, 1 SB, 98 wRC+. A slightly below average hitter in the majors as a 21 year old coming back from a foot injury. Detroit was optimistic that this was the start of a bright future for the former top pick in the draft.

Major Leagues

2023

Riley Greene’s first full season starting with the Major League club. After getting a decent taste in 2022, the expectations were high. The Tigers were coming off a 66-96 record so there was hope that the left-handed hitting outfielder could give the team the spark they desperately needed. His year to year changes were noticeable and effective in making him a better overall hitter. He improved his hard hit %, avg exit velocity, launch angle sweet-spot %, and barrel %. He also refined his swing decisions, dropping his K % and out of zone swing %. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow. His stats: 416 PA, .288 AVG, .349 OBP, .447 SLG, 11 HR, 51 R, 37 RBI, 7 SB, 120 wRC+. Another promising showing for Tigers fans. Could 2024 be when he really starts to put it together or is health going to be a long term concern?

2024

Greene notched career highs in games played and plate appearances in 2024. A welcomed sight for Tigers fans that had yet to see his full potential. Once again Riley Greene did not disappoint. He was elected to his first All-Star game and finished the season with these stats: 584 PA, .262 AVG, .348 OBP, .479 SLG, 24 HR, 82 R, 74 RBI, 4 SB, 135 wRC+. He ranked seventh among AL outfielders in HR, 4th in wRC+, and sixth in fWAR. A great season encapsulated by the Tigers first postseason run in 10 years. Riley Greene’s breakout happened in 2024, was this the peak or a sign for bigger things to come?

2025

If you told me ahead of time that Riley Greene would have a career high K% (31.5) and career low BB% (6.8) this season, I’d think he took a massive step back in his progression and the Tigers team as a whole would be struggling. Thankfully, that couldn’t be further from the truth for Greene and the MLB best record Detroit Tigers. He has a career best max exit velocity at 115.1 mph, a 75.3 mph avg. bat speed and 24 HRs already (tying his career high from all of 2024). He ranks 88th % or better in xSLG, Barrel %, Launch Angle Sweet Spot %, and Bat Speed. Simply put, he’s crushing the ball. He’s also pulling the ball in the air at a career high mark, which helps him to optimize that power.

Greene is one of three hitters with >20 HR, >70 RBI, >140 wRC+, and >3.0 fWAR. The other two are AL MVP frontrunners, Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh.

There’s no signs of him slowing down either. Greene is one of five hitters in all of baseball to hit 5+ HRs in each month this season, including July which has two weeks left of games to be played. The consistent power output so far has his rest of season projections at 10-13 HR, 32-35 R, 35-40 RBI, and a 125-135 wRC+. We’re looking at a potential 35+ HR, 85+R, 100+ RBI output from a 24 year old.

Summary

Riley Greene has exemplified the perfect career trajectory that you hope to see from a developing hitter. Constant improvement from season to season. While it may come with some shortfalls in certain areas of the profile, the total body of work looks better each year and eventually every piece will click. The Tigers have a homegrown star that is knocking on the door of superstardom in the seasons to come. I can’t wait to see what the future holds for Greene and the Tigers.

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The Tigers biggest needs are at 3B, RP, SP, and OF.

5. Ryan McMahon (COL - 3B) and Jhoan Duran (MIN - RP)

The least likely to get done, given the Tigers would need to make a trade with two separate teams and one being a division rival. However, McMahon and Duran would fill two of Detroit’s positional needs. McMahon is a solid, consistent power bat to insert into the lineup (four straight seasons of at least 20 HR). He walks at an above average rate and plays solid defense. McMahon would add depth to an already solid lineup with his strong quality of contact from the left side of the plate.

Duran is the piece that would make this scenario difficult to pull off. Trading intra-division is always hard. A top closer in baseball over the past few seasons with more than 10 K/9 and better than a 2.76 xERA each of his four MLB seasons. He’d warrant a substantial return but would give the Tigers that lockdown bullpen arm they desperately need to close out games.

4. Nolan Arenado (STL - 3B) and Ryan Helsley (STL - RP)

Sensing a theme yet? Another trade that would fill the void at 3B and add a top bullpen arm for Detroit. Nolan Arenado is not what he used to be in terms of power but he’s still rarely strikes out (10.2%) and plays gold glove caliber defense. He wouldn’t be the star of the Tigers lineup, but Detroit doesn’t need him to be. I think he’d slot in nicely as an every day bat that Hinch wouldn’t have to worry about down the stretch. The one difficulty being Arenado’s no trade clause — meaning he’d have to waive that and agree to come to Detroit.

Ryan Helsley led the league in saves last season with 49 and is up to 15 this season. His K/9 and BB/9 rates are similar, he’s just giving up more HRs the first half of this season compared to last. Moving to a pitcher’s park like Comeria would minimize that risk to a degree, so he’s a worthwhile trade target for the Tigers at the deadline. If Arenado waives his no trade clause, then Detroit needs to go all in and add Helsley to the deal in order to fill two holes in their roster at once.

3. Cedric Mullins (BAL - OF) and Felix Bautista (BAL - RP)

The Tigers have a strong outfield rotation as it stands with Greene, Meadows, Perez, and Carpenter but Cedric Mullins provides another bench bat or defensive replacement. Having that adds value as Detroit desires to make a deep postseason run. Mullins gives a good balance of power and speed that the Tigers need. A 30 HR / 30 SB guy back in 2021 who’s pacing for 24 HR / 16 SB this season would be valuable for the Tigers to add.

Felix Bautista missed the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery and started off 2025 slow because of it. Well he’s looked like his former dominant self as of late. A 12.87 K/9 with a 2.93 xERA over 28.2 IP so far. A late bloomer for the Orioles (debuted at 27), but a bullpen arm that could really help lockdown those close games for the Tigers down the stretch and into the postseason.

2. Eugenio Suarez (ARI - 3B) and Merrill Kelly (ARI - SP)

Eugenio Suarez has been a great power hitter for several seasons now and although at age 33, he has his highest single season wRC+ of his career. His 25 HRs are only 5 off his season total from 2024. Suarez began his career with Detroit, so a homecoming might sweeten the deal. He’s also in a contract year and with the D-backs battling injuries in an extremely competitive division, it’s wise for them to capitalize on his value while they can and trade him to a contender. Suarez would provide a great source of power in the middle of the Tigers lineup, while also filling the void at the hot corner.

Merrill Kelly is a veteran that would help eat innings down the stretch for the Tigers. In 2022-2023 he posted back to back seasons with 175+ IP and better than a 3.40 ERA. Last season was filled with injuries but in 98.0 IP so far this season, he has a 3.49 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 100 SO. The stuff on his pitches isn’t going to blow you away but his changeup generates a 36.9 Whiff% with a Run Value of 8, according to Baseball Savant. Starting pitching depth is imperative for a deep run in the postseason and a seasoned arm like Kelly would be just what the Tigers are looking for.

1. Alex Bregman (BOS - 3B) and Aroldis Chapman (BOS - RP)

This one will be controversial given how the offseason played out between Alex Bregman and Detroit. There were rumors swelling that Bregman simply didn’t pick the Tigers because he didn’t want to play in Detroit. Now that the Tigers are sitting in first place in the AL, I bet feelings have changed. Bregman’s player opt out in his contract makes it a possibility. Reuniting with his old manager, AJ Hinch, has some draw also. Bregman’s patient approach and ability to pull the ball (30.1 Pull AIR%) allow him to maximize his success at the plate. Not to mention, his above average defense at a position the Tigers need to fill.

Chapman has been there and done that. He’s been a trade deadline target of contending teams for years and always produces down the stretch. He still throws 100+ mph and generates a 38.1 K%. Another lockdown closer option for the Tigers to add to the backend of the bullpen.

Summary

The Detroit Tigers have not been on the “buyers” side of the MLB trade deadline in quite some time. This season they have the best record in the American League, lots of young, controllable talent, and the best pitcher in the sport. No better time to make a run at the World Series by adding a player or two to strengthen the weak spots in the current roster. I am looking forward to watching this Tigers season unfold and see which newcomers join the team post-deadline to make an impact.

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Current Contract Details

Tarik Skubal signed a 1 year, $10.15 million (all guaranteed) contract with the Tigers before the 2025 season, avoiding arbitration. After winning the Cy Young in 2024, Detroit was lucky Skubal agreed to it rather than going to an arbitration hearing that would determine his salary for the upcoming season. Skubal is eligible for salary arbitration one final time after this season before becoming a free agent heading into the 2027 season. However, with the way he’s pitched since the start of last season, there’s a real chance he declines arbitration and seek a new contract, taking advantage of his value while it’s peaking.

Future Value

Tarik Skubal is estimated to get somewhere near a 10 year, $400 million contract. He would become the first pitcher ever to cross that monetary threshold. I believe he’s worth it. Since the start of 2024, no pitcher has provided more value to their team. Skubal leads the league in fWAR at 9.7 over that span. Second place is at 8.9. He’s also pitched the second most innings and has the fourth best K/9. Elite durability and effectiveness are hard to come by in starters. Skubal has expressed interest staying with the Tigers, the team who took a chance on him. I think if Detroit makes a deep postseason run this season with a potential back-to-back Cy Young winner at the helm, then their front office has no choice but to pay Skubal what he’s worth. Not to mention, this team is on an upward trajectory with several top hitting prospects on the way. All this future Tigers team would be missing is their certified ace locking down the front of the rotation for the next decade.

Decision Time

If I’m the Detroit Tigers, I give Tarik Skubal the record setting contract. Prove to the rest of the players in the organization that this front office wants to win and stay competitive for years to come. Don’t wait until late in the offseason, otherwise Skubal’s agent will advise him to shop the open market. Get the deal done towards the end of this season or immediately following the season’s close. Show him what he’s worth, keep the winning culture in Detroit that fans have been begging for, make it a desirable destination for other free agents to join, and good things will come.

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I’m going to breakdown his career year by year and give evidence to why I believe Torkelson’s bat is here to stay and could even get him a nod at his first All-Star game selection.

Rookie Season (2022)

Torkelson made his debut with the Tigers on Opening Day of the 2022 season. Expectations were high but the Tigers team as a whole struggled, so the pressure and spotlight was muted. His presence in the lineup provided optimism for Tigers fans as they looked to the future. 2023 would be his opportunity to shine.

Stats: 110 G | .203 AVG | .285 OBP | .319 SLG | 8 HR | 38 R | 28 RBI | 24.5 K% | 9.2 BB%

Sophomore Season (2023)

Spencer Torkelson’s second season in the MLB was his chance to show Detroit his true potential. With big first base shoes to fill in Miguel Cabrera, the pressure was on for Torkelson to deliver. A slow start to the season gave fans pause. What happened to this extremely successful college bat? Through May, he hit only 4 HRs and drove in 24 RBI. Not what you want to see from your former top prospect. Something clicked in June as he went on to hit 7 HR with 16 RBI. The power showed up in a big way and fans were getting excited as the hype might finally be paying off. Torkelson followed that up with 4 HR in July, 9 in August, and 7 in September. His 19 HR in the second half were the 3rd most among first baseman and 11th most overall. It appeared that Torkelson had arrived to the MLB stage and fans were thrilled with his potential to replicate that successful second half for an entire season in 2024.

Stats: 159 G | .233 AVG | .313 OBP | .446 SLG | 31 HR | 88 R | 94 RBI | 25.0 K% | 9.8 BB%

2024 Season

The 2024 season was another rollercoaster ride for Spencer Torkelson and Tigers fans who anxiously awaited his continued success from the previous season. Pre All-Star break he hit 4 HR with 17 RBI in 230 PA. On June 2nd, Torkelson was optioned to Triple-A as the Tigers spiraled and searched for some offensive success. In the meantime, the hope was for Torkelson to clear his mind, reset, and gain some positive momentum before getting called back up to the majors. Torkelson went on to play 58 games with Toledo, hitting .239 with 11 HR and a .799 OPS. A good enough result to get recalled on August 17th. In 57 PA in August with Detroit, he hit .308 with 3 HR and a .368 OBP. Fans were still concerned as the power numbers were not as consistent as expected or depicted by the success in 2023. Would Torkelson be part of the Tigers future plans or would they turn to other options?

Stats: 92 G | .219 AVG | .295 OBP | .374 SLG | 10 HR | 45 R | 37 RBI | 27.6 K% | 8.7 BB%

2025 Season

The 2025 offseason leading into Spring Training made it seem as if Spencer Torkelson might be fighting for a bench spot or without a job entirely. The Tigers planned to shift Colt Keith over to 1B and signed Gleyber Torres to fill the need at 2B. Torkelson would have to hit his way onto the team; and hit he sure did. In 19 Spring Training games, Torkelson hit 5 HR with a .340/.389/.680 slash line. Torkelson earned himself a spot on the roster, but would consistent playing time be there? Could his Spring Training success be replicated against the best of major league pitching once the regular season started?

Opening Night vs the LA Dodgers — Torkelson started and went 1-1 with a HR and 4 BBs, no SOs. I knew after watching those 5 PA, that he was back and better than ever. A more closed off batting stance likened to his college days allowed him to get the barrel on the ball faster, while allowing him to see the ball better coming out of the pitcher’s hand.

Spencer Torkelson followed up that impressive opening night performance with 7 HR, 23 RBI in April and 6 HR, 18 RBI in May. He owns the highest OPS of his career (.836) and leads the Tigers in HR and RBI so far this season. Torkelson has been an integral part to the Tigers’ success and is making a strong case for an All-Star bid. Here’s where he ranks among AL 1B:

• 1st in HR (16)

• 3rd in Runs Scored (41)

• 1st in RBI (47)

• T-3rd in wRC+ (133)

• T-4th in fWAR (1.6)

Year-to-Year Improvements

Torkelson has improved in several areas offensively from last season to this season. He raised his exit velocity from 89 mph to 90.5 mph, more than doubled his barrel % (6.7 to 14.5), and improved his hard hit % from 39.7 to 43.6%. Increases in those three areas are a recipe for success. Not to mention all his expected stats look better than last season, backing up the improved offensive production. His plate approach has also gotten better as he’s striking out at a career low rate (24.5%) and walking at a career high rate (12.6%). All indications point to a career season for the Tigers slugger.

Stats: 70 G | .234 AVG | .344 OBP | .492SLG | 16 HR | 41 R | 47 RBI | 24.5 K% | 12.6 BB%

Rest of Season and Beyond

The minor adjustments Torkelson has made at the plate and to his swing are going to continue to pay off the rest of 2025. I predict 35+ HR with a lower batting average but close to 100 R and RBI once all is said and done. The Tigers need his bat to show up as they make a push for a deep postseason run and Torkelson needs to finish strong to prove those disbelievers wrong. I’m excited for what’s in store the rest of the way and in future seasons to come. Torkelson’s fortitude matches that of the grit of Detroit and what’s better than a comeback story to motivate your team towards a World Series Championship.

Tarik Skubal

Season stats: 47.2 IP, 2.08 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .210 AVG, 60 SO.

Tarik Skubal is the centerpiece of this rotation. As he goes, the rest of the group goes. The reigning Cy Young winner is continuing his success early on this season. Skubal is an efficient and effective arm and attacks the zone with authority. Daring hitters to combat his arsenal.

According to BaseballSavant, he ranks in the 91st percentile or better in several key metrics: Avg. Exit Velo, Whiff%, K%, BB%, Hard-Hit%. Skubal generates a lot of swing and miss, doesn’t miss the zone, and the limited contact he does allow does not get barreled up very often, limiting any sort of damage. Mainly a four pitch mix (changeup, four seam, sinker, slider) with a sprinkling of the curve. The change, four seam, and sinker all generate greater than a 25% Whiff%, with the changeup at a massive 48% rate. Skubal’s overall K% is 5th in baseball, while his whiff % is 2nd. He will finish the season at the top of the leaderboards in overall strikeouts, along with ERA and WHIP; making him a finalist for back to back Cy Young awards.

Jack Flaherty

Season stats: 38.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .229 AVG, 46 SO. (written prior to his 5/10 start)

I wrote a preseason piece on Jack Flaherty returning to the Tigers after a strong first half with Detroit in 2024. I loved the deal and have been very encouraged with the continued signs of improvement for him thus far in 2025. Flaherty’s underlying metrics are mostly in line with last season. A .252 XBA, .420 XSLG, and .318 xwOBA are all right around league average, but a 29.1 K% and 30.7 Whiff% both put him in the 80th percentile, meaning he’s missing bats at a great rate.

Flaherty’s main struggles have come once he reaches the 6th inning. He’s allowed 8 ER in 34.2 IP across innings 1-5 so far this season, compared to 8 ER in 3.1 IP in the 6th inning alone. This is pretty common early on in the season as a pitcher builds up endurance to go deeper into games. I’m not overly concerned by it and think once Flaherty starts to pitch effectively through the 6th inning, we’ll see him return to his 2024 self. Athletes are intense competitors and pitchers like to push each other to succeed, so I know Flaherty will want to improve for his fellow rotation mates especially as he tries to keep pace with Skubal.

Reese Olson

Season stats: 38.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .214 AVG, 40 SO.

Reese Olson has been on a heater lately. The 25 year old has 4 straight starts with 7+ SO. He has also given up 0 ER in 4 of his last 5 starts. The underlying metrics look mostly the same to last season, so what’s the reason for the mini-breakout? He’s throwing his sinker and changeup more and fastball less (24% to 13% of the time). The sinker is generating less whiffs (7.6% to 2.7%), so never really a bat misser. However, the changeup whiff% is up from 43% to 54% and the fastball is also up from 10% to 21%. Clearly a conscious pitch mix change that has led to more effective results so far.

The walk % (10.6) and hard-hit % (47.5) are both in the lower 30th percentile, a bit concerning. If he can nibble around the zone a bit more and limit the hard contact, then we’re looking at a legitimate breakout candidate. I trust the Tigers pitching coaches know the areas to work on and I think Olson can be a really strong No. 3 arm in this rotation moving forward.

Casey Mize

Season stats: 42.2 IP, 2.53 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .217 AVG, 35 SO. (written prior to IL designation)

The former #1 overall draft pick seems to finally be putting it altogether. Mize racked up his 6th win of the year vs COL the other day, tying him for the league lead. A .208 xBA, .372 xSLG, and .269 xwOBA are all significantly better than league average. His ERA and WHIP are top 20 in the league among qualified starting pitchers. A great sign for Tigers fans who have been invested in Mize since he was drafted in 2018.

His biggest improvements from last season are in hard-hit%, whiff%, and first pitch strike%. Mize is attacking hitters in the zone early, getting ahead in the count more often, generating more swing and miss, and limiting the hard contact on balls put in play. A great recipe for success that I believe continues throughout the rest of the season. Another strong arm for the Tigers to rely on and keep the team in the game, regardless of how the offense is doing that night.

Jackson Jobe

Season stats: 27.2 IP, 4.88 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, .250 AVG, 20 SO.

Jobe, the Tigers #1 overall prospect coming into the season, has struggled a bit to start the season. He’s actually held his own outside of his last start (2.70 ERA in 20 IP in April) which occurred in Coors Field, an environment that troubles several pitchers. However, there are some encouraging signs for the 22 year old. All five of the pitches that he throws have a positive Stuff+ grade, anywhere from 103-115. Meaning each pitch type ranks 3-15% better than the league average. The movement he generates on all his pitches is nasty, making him an exciting watch every time he goes out.

Jobe’s struggling to generate whiffs and strikeouts, while also owning a high walk rate. All three metrics rank in the bottom 20th percentile. Pitch selection and command are areas of improvement for the youngster. As stated, the pitches themselves are strong but knowing when to throw each pitch type and for strikes is crucial for success. This is something that he’ll get better with more reps and experience on the mound. The talent is there, it just needs some fine tuning. Jobe has the potential to be the ace of this rotation in a few seasons. For now, I’m more than happy with him holding down the 5th spot in the rotation and learning from the minds of Skubal and pitching coach Chris Fetter.

Summary

The Detroit Tigers starting rotation is a top 5-10 unit in the MLB so far and I have confidence they will only get better moving forward. With Skubal, the reigning Cy Young winner as our ace; Flaherty improving on his bounce back year in 2024; Olson on the cusp of a breakout season; Mize showing us why he was the former #1 pick in the draft, and the former top prospect in Jobe learning as he goes; the sky is the limit for this team. I look forward to seeing how they line up in a best of 7 postseason series against some of the sport’s best lineups. Buckle up Detroit, we’re in for a fun season.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Offseason Adds: Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott, Hyeseong Kim, Kirby Yates, Michael Conforto.

Offseason Departures: Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Gavin Lux.

Prediction: The defending champs got even better. Their lineup, rotation, and bullpen has more depth to help carry them to a deep postseason run. I think they win the NL West and are back to back World Series Champions.

2. Atlanta Braves

Adds: Jurickson Profar and Bryan De La Cruz.

Departures: Max Fried, Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Charlie Morton, AJ Minter, Gio Urshela, Ramon Laureano, John Brebbia, Luke Jackson.

Prediction: Injuries completely derailed their 2024 season. Once they get Acuña Jr and Strider back, I expect them to have one of the best lineups in all of baseball. I think they win the NL East, but lose in the NLDS.

3. New York Mets

Adds: Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, AJ Minter, Jose Siri, Ryne Stanek, Griffin Canning.

Departures: Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino.

Prediction: The Mets won the winter in landing Juan Soto for the next 15 years, along with bringing back the polar bear. I think they finish 2nd in the division, securing a Wild Card spot, but make it to the NLCS in a rematch versus the Dodgers.

4. Philadelphia Phillies

Adds: Jesus Luzardo, Jordan Romano, Max Kepler, Joe Ross.

Departures: Jeff Hoffman, Austin Hays, Carlos Estevez.

Prediction: I think they might have the best rotation in the sport, but the NL East is going to be a dogfight. I have them finishing 3rd in the division, securing the second NL Wild Card spot, but failing to make it past the NLDS yet again.

5. Texas Rangers

Adds: Joc Pederson, Jake Burger, Kyle Higashioka, Chris Martin, Jacob Webb, Shawn Armstrong.

Departures: Nathaniel Lowe, Carson Kelly, Jose Leclerc, Kirby Yates, Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney.

Prediction: I think this lineup could lead the league in home runs. They’re getting a healthy Jacob deGrom back, which is a game-changer. They are my highest-ranked AL team, so I have them winning the AL West and representing their league in the World Series.

6. Boston Red Sox

Adds: Garrett Crochet, Alex Bregman, Walker Buehler, Patrick Sandoval, Aroldis Chapman, Justin Wilson, Carlos Narvaez.

Departures: Tyler O’Neill, Kenley Jansen, Danny Jansen, Chris Martin, Nick Pivetta.

Prediction: I really like the moves Boston made this offseason. The rotation added depth as well as the lineup. Not to mention the prospects waiting in the minors to help contribute. I think they win the AL East and makes it to the ALDS.

7. Baltimore Orioles

Adds: Tyler O’Neill, Tomoyuki Sugano, Gary Sanchez, Charlie Morton, Andrew Kittredge, Dylan Carlson, Ramon Laureano.

Departures: Corbin Burnes, Anthony Santander, John Means, Danny Coulombe.

Prediction: They have a very young, fun, and deep lineup but their rotation concerns me a bit especially with the uncertainty around Grayson Rodriguez. I think they finish 2nd in the AL East, securing the top Wild Card spot but don’t make it past the AL Wild Card round again.

8. New York Yankees

Adds: Max Fried, Devin Williams, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Fernando Cruz, Alex Jackson.

Departures: Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, Clay Holmes, Nestor Cortes, Tommy Kahnle.

Prediction: The Yankees losing Gerrit Cole was crushing, especially after already being down Luis Gil for a big chunk of the start of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a big move at the deadline to supplement Judge in the lineup though. I think they will secure the 2nd Wild Card spot and fight their way back to the ALCS.

9. Arizona Diamondbacks

Adds: Corbin Burnes, Josh Naylor, Kendall Graveman.

Departures: Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, Kevin Newman, Josh Bell, Paul Sewald, Slade Cecconi.

Prediction: I’m encouraged by the moves they made this offseason and think they still have a very dangerous lineup. The rotation got better with Burnes too. They play in a tough division, but I still have them securing that final Wild Card spot in the NL. I don’t see them taking down one of the bigger fish in the first round of the postseason.

10. Tampa Bay Rays

Adds: Ha-Seong Kim, Danny Jansen, Alex Faedo.

Departures: Jose Siri, Jeffrey Springs, Dylan Carlson, Tyler Alexander.

Prediction: A team with great depth all around and young talent waiting in the wings. I think they surprise people and secure that final Wild Card spot in the AL, meaning four teams from the AL East will make it to the postseason.

11. Houston Astros

Adds: Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, Brendan Rodgers.

Departures: Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Verlander, Ryan Pressly, Kendall Graveman.

Prediction: I think they lost too many key pieces this offseason, the lower third of their lineup does not look great, and health risks to their rotation concern me. I have them finishing 2nd in the AL West but ultimately missing the postseason.

12. Chicago Cubs

Adds: Kyle Tucker, Matthew Boyd, Ryan Pressly, Eli Morgan, Justin Turner, Colin Rea, Jon Berti, etc.

Departures: Cody Bellinger, Kyle Hendricks, Mike Tauchman, Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski.

Prediction: The Cubs had a strong offseason as they look to compete in a weaker NL Central. I think they have what it takes to win their division and potentially win a postseason series.

13. San Diego Padres

Adds: Nick Pivetta, Elias Diaz, Connor Joe, Jason Heyward, Yuli Gurriel.

Departures: Tanner Scott, Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, Kyle Higashioka, Martin Perez, Donovan Solano.

Prediction: The Padres did not make significant enough moves to compete with the D-backs and Dodgers in their own division. Also, losing Profar after a career year hurts them too. I think they finish 3rd in the NL West and miss the postseason.

14. Milwaukee Brewers

Adds: Nestor Cortes, Grant Anderson, Jose Quintana, Tyler Alexander, Mark Canha.

Departures: Willy Adames, Devin Williams, Frankie Montas, Gary Sanchez, Hoby Milner, Joe Ross, Colin Rea.

Prediction: I like how they retooled their rotation and think that will be the strength for this team. Their lineup however, outside of Contreras and an injury prone Yelich, lacks slug. I think they struggle to score runs, finish 2nd in the NL Central, and miss the postseason.

15. Detroit Tigers

Adds: Jack Flaherty, Gleyber Torres, Alex Cobb, Tommy Kahnle, John Brebbia.

Departures: Alex Faedo.

Prediction: The Tigers rotation and bullpen got better. They will rely on pitching to win games in a weaker division. I have them winning the AL Central this season after last year’s positive momentum to finish out the season.

16. Seattle Mariners

Adds: Donovan Solano, Miles Mastrobuoni, Jorge Polanco.

Departures: Yimi Garcia, Josh Rojas, Luis Urias, Justin Turner.

Prediction: The last few seasons Seattle has been known for having one of the strongest rotations in the league but a lackluster offense to back it up. They didn’t improve their offense in the offseason and I think that will prevent them from winning enough games. I have them finishing 3rd in the AL West and missing the postseason.

17. Kansas City Royals

Adds: Jonathan India, Carlos Estevez, Joey Wiemer.

Departures: Brady Singer, Adam Frazier, Paul DeJong.

Prediction: I think the Royals over-performed in 2024 and outside of Witt and Pasquantino, they don’t have enough substantial bats in their lineup to score enough runs. I think Wacha and Lugo will regress to the mean a bit too. I have them finishing 2nd in the AL Central and missing the postseason.

18. Cleveland Guardians

Adds: Carlos Santana, Paul Sewald, John Means, Luis Ortiz, Jakob Junis, Slade Cecconi.

Departures: Matt Boyd, Alex Cobb, Andres Gimenez, Nick Sandlin, Eli Morgan, Josh Naylor.

Similar to the Royals, I think they over-performed expectations last season. The rotation and bullpen are great, but losing Naylor and Gimenez leaves holes in their lineup that Jose Ramirez can’t fill all by himself. I think they will finish 3rd in the AL Central and miss the postseason.

19. San Francisco Giants

Adds: Willy Adames, Justin Verlander.

Departures: Blake Snell, Michael Conforto, Taylor Rogers.

Prediction: I like the moves they made but don’t think they made enough of them, especially in a division as tough as theirs. The offense doesn’t have enough star power. I think next season is where they make some noise as some of their prospects start coming up. I have them finishing 4th in the NL West.

20. Minnesota Twins

Adds: Harrison Bader, Ty France, Danny Coulombe.

Departures: Kyle Farmer, Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, Caleb Thielbar, Jovani Moran.

Prediction: The Twins did not make any big moves this offseason after a 2024 season in which they crawled to the finish line and missed the postseason. Their best bats struggle to stay healthy, which remains the case this season. I have them finishing 4th in the AL Central.

21. Toronto Blue Jays

Adds: Anthony Santander, Jeff Hoffman, Yimi Garcia, Max Scherzer, Andres Gimenez, Nick Sandlin, Myles Straw.

Departures: Jordan Romano, Spencer Horwitz.

Prediction: Toronto missed out on a few key FAs this offseason, again. They lack lineup depth and there are serious age/health concerns with their starting rotation. In a good division too, I have them finishing 5th in the AL East.

22. Cincinnati Reds

Adds: Brady Singer, Gavin Lux, Taylor Rogers, Austin Hays, Jose Trevino, Scott Barlow.

Departures: Justin Wilson, Jonathan India, Ty France, Amed Rosario, Jakob Junis.

Prediction: My favorite move the Reds made this offseason was with their choice of manager (Terry Francona), if that tells you anything about how I feel they will do in 2025. Their lineup has some holes as well as health concerns and depth to their rotation. I think they, along with the Cubs and Brewers, remain close at the top of the division, but the Reds end up finishing 3rd in the NL Central when it’s all said and done.

23. Athletics

Adds: Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Gio Urshela, Jose Leclerc, Luis Urias.

Departures: Scott Alexander, Ross Stripling.

Prediction: I like the moves the A’s made this offseason, but I still feel like the rotation is lacking, and the lineup is one season away from fully clicking. The uncertainty of the new ballpark and how it plays makes me cautious, too. I have them finishing 4th in the AL West.

24. Washington Nationals

Adds: Nathaniel Lowe, Michael Soroka, Josh Bell, Paul DeJong, Amed Rosario, Jorge Lopez, Lucas Sims.

Departures: Robert Garcia.

Prediction: The rotation depth for Washington is a concern for me. Their lineup has an unproven, young core (Woods, Crews, Abrams) that hasn’t played a full season together yet. This season will be full of growing pains but I think 2026 is the season to watch for this squad. I have them finishing 4th in the NL East.

25. Los Angeles Angels

Adds: Yusei Kikuchi, Jorge Soler, Kenley Jansen, Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Hendricks, Yoan Moncada, Kevin Newman.

Departures: Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning, Matt Moore.

Prediction: Another year where I love the moves the Angels made in the offseason. Unfortunately, health concerns always lurk around this team. They need everything to go right in order to succeed, and I feel as if there are just too many question marks. I have them finishing 4th in the AL West.

26. St Louis Cardinals

Adds: Phil Maton.

Departures: Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew Kittredge.

Prediction: The Cardinals were very quiet this offseason and lack any proven, young, consistent talent on their roster. I think Arenado will be gone by the deadline too. With an aging rotation, I don’t see a very optimistic future for St Louis and have them finishing 4th in the NL Central.

27. Pittsburgh Pirates

Adds: Spencer Horwitz, Tommy Pham, Andrew Heaney, Adam Frazier, Caleb Ferguson, Tim Mayza.

Departures: Aroldis Chapman, Luis Ortiz, Bryan De La Cruz, Connor Joe, Michael Taylor.

Prediction: Pittsburgh’s lineup lacks any offensive firepower, outside of an inconsistent Cruz. The rotation has the potential to be one of the best in baseball. This team is giving me Mariners-lite vibes, which is not a good thing. I think they finish last in the NL Central.

28. Colorado Rockies

Adds: Kyle Farmer, Thairo Estrada, Scott Alexander.

Departures: Cal Quantrill, Brendan Rodgers.

Prediction: Colorado finds themselves in the hardest park to pitch, in arguably the toughest division, with the weakest lineup. It’s going to be another long season for Rockies fans. I have them finishing last in the NL West.

29. Chicago White Sox

Adds: Martin Perez, Austin Slater, Mike Tauchman, Josh Rojas, Michael Taylor.

Departures: Garrett Crochet, Michael Soroka, Yoan Moncada.

Prediction: The White Sox are coming off a historically bad season and lost their best asset in Crochet. The front office is undergoing a complete rebuild, along with the organization. Having said all that, I think we see some minor improvements and I like some of their prospects to come up and make an impact. This team will be on the rise in a few seasons but for now I have them finishing last in the AL Central.

30. Miami Marlins

Adds: Cal Quantrill, Eric Wagaman, Matt Mervis.

Departures: Jesus Luzardo, Jake Burger.

Prediction: Miami continues to find great rotation pieces but their lineup lacks slug, so they will really struggle to score runs. The lack of empathy from the front office has really hurt this team too. I think they finish last in the NL East.

Summary

American League

East: Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays.

Central: Tigers, Royals, Guardians, Twins, White Sox.

West: Rangers, Astros, Mariners, Athletics, Angels.

Postseason: Rangers, Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees, Orioles, Rays.

ALCS: Rangers vs Yankees (Rangers win).

National League

East: Braves, Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Marlins.

Central: Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Cardinals, Pirates.

West: Dodgers, Dbacks, Padres, Giants, Rockies.

Postseason: Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Mets, Phillies, Dbacks.

NLCS: Dodgers vs Mets (Dodgers win).

We’ll see how well this sticks over the next couple weeks, let alone the full season. I look forward to updating this every Monday and stay tuned to see how many postseason teams I predicted correctly. Thanks for reading!

February 7th — The Detroit Tigers signed Jack Flaherty to a two-year, $35 million contract for the 2025-2026 seasons with a player opt-out after 2025. Flaherty will get a $20 million salary with a $5 million signing bonus this season. Then in 2026 his salary will start at $10 million and could increase to $20 million if he makes 15 starts in 2025.

Flaherty pre-Detroit

Flaherty, originally drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals looked like an ace in the making. In his age 22 and 23 season, Flaherty was excellent. 151 IP with 182 K and a 3.34 ERA in 2018. 196.1 IP with 231 K and a 2.75 ERA in 2019. It's a truly dominant stretch. The next four seasons tell a different story. Flaherty really struggled with health and quality production from 2020-2023. His stats over that period were: 4.12 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 0.241 BAA, 273 K to 118 BB. Coming off 144.1 IP in 2023 (his highest since 2019), the Tigers took a chance on Flaherty in hopes of recovering some of that magic from 5 seasons ago.

Flaherty Becomes a Tiger (the first time)

Jack Flaherty signs a one-year, $14 million deal with the Detroit Tigers ahead of the 2024 season, slotting him into the starting rotation behind Detroit’s ace, Tarik Skubal. Flaherty’s first Spring Training outing came on Feb. 26, 2024, vs the Houston Astros. Only 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2K, a typical short outing to ease into the Spring workload. A strong inning of work, but not the main takeaway. His underlying metrics revealed an uptick in velocity across all his pitch types. Maybe just added adrenaline in his first start with his new club or an immediate positive impact from Chris Fetter and the rest of the pitching staff.

Let’s flash forward to his March 19th start vs the Philadelphia Phillies as his workload increased and changes became more noticeable. His final line: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. Once again, his pitch velocity increased on his 4-seam fastball, slider, and knuckle curve, along with a 36 CSW% (called strike or swinging strike). Flaherty finished Spring with 18.1 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, and 26 K. Tigertown was buzzing with the hopes that Flaherty’s skillset from his first few seasons had resurfaced. The real test would come once the regular season started against lineups full of major league hitters.

Flaherty’s first regular-season start for Detroit came on March 31st vs. the Chicago White Sox. He finished with 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, and a 33 CSW%. A very impressive debut, answering any questions Tigers fans might have had coming out of Spring. However, he followed that up with an underwhelming second start vs Oakland, finishing with 6 ER over 6 IP. One good and one bad start to his Tigers career left Tigers fans doubting again. Would this just be an inconsistent season like much of his career? Was Spring just a flash in the pan vs non-major league hitters?

From mid-April through May, Flaherty had eight starts. All but one qualified as a quality start (more than 6 IP and less than 3 ER), while 5 of the 8 were 6+ IP with 9+ Ks. It was a dominant stretch that not only validated the Tiger's move to acquire Jack in the offseason but put him atop most trade target lists for contending teams at the MLB trade deadline. One start that really stood out for me was on April 30th vs his former team, the St. Louis Cardinals. His line: 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 14 K, with 24 whiffs on 93 total pitches and a 46% CSW. Extra motivation against the team he debuted with in 2014 that then later traded him away.

Old vs New

I want to dive into the details behind Flaherty’s return to stardom since joining the Tigers organization. On the surface, he increased his K% (from 22.8 in ‘23 to 29.9 in ‘24) and decreased his BB% (from 10.2 to 5.9). Striking out more hitters, while walking less is always going to lead to success. He also changed up his pitch mix slightly too. In 2023, he threw six pitches (a four-seamer, slider, knuckle curve, cutter, changeup, and sinker). Whereas in 2024, he dropped the cutter completely and relied more heavily on his four-seamer, slider, and knuckle curve. It was the slider and knuckle curve that saw the most drastic changes. I’ve highlighted some of the more impactful changes below from his pitch-tracking data on BaseballSavant. The slider became a real weapon for generating whiffs, while both the slider and knuckle curve were used more to put away batters.

Flaherty saw several plate discipline metrics improve from ‘23 to ‘24. Out-of-zone % and out-of-zone swing % went up, meaning not only was he placing more pitches outside of the strike zone, but he was getting opposing hitters to swing at those pitches more often. First-pitch strike % and first-pitch swing % also improved, meaning he started hitters off behind in the count more frequently, lots of times, by getting them to swing at that first pitch more.

World Champ & Return to the Motor City

Flaherty, along with Fetter and the Tigers pitching staff, made pitch mix changes that helped resurrect his career. The Tigers took advantage of his aforementioned trade value and sent him to the LA Dodgers for their No. 8 and No. 22 prospects (Thayron Liranzo and Trey Sweeney). Flaherty went on to win the 2024 World Series with his hometown team, while the Tigers got two pieces for the future. In fact, Sweeney has already had a couple of key moments with the Tigers during their stretch run into the postseason to end 2024.

The Tigers have built a respectable pitching development and analysis program, with Flaherty being the most recent example of that. Fetter and the staff liked what they saw from Jack enough in 2024 to encourage the front office to re-sign him again this season. I was encouraged by what I saw in his first stint with Detroit, and I think he can improve on those results this year. The 1-2 punch of reigning AL Cy Young winners Tarik Skubal and Flaherty will be fun to watch throughout the upcoming baseball season.

My name is Grant Bracey, and I’m a passionate and proud Detroit Tigers fan. I’m excited to join the team at The Skippers View and provide my thoughts on the Tigers and the game of baseball as a whole. My interest in stats and numbers influenced my love for baseball and the analytics associated with it. I have experience working in all levels of the game (independent, college, and the majors), so I feel I have valuable insights to share. I look forward to contributing more blogs as we near the start of the 2025 MLB season. If interested, please consider following me on Twitter/X for more content @DatabaseHit.

December 2007 — The Detroit Tigers acquire 24-year-old Miguel “Miggy” Cabrera from the Florida Marlins for Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Eulogio de la Cruz, Mike Rabelo, Burke Badenhop, and Dallas Trahern. It was a blockbuster deal for Detroit that shaped the future of the Tigers franchise for the next two decades.

Detroit pre-Miggy.

From 1998 to 2005, the Detroit Tigers struggled to be competitive in the MLB. 2000 was their best season over that stretch, at 79-83. Then, the magical run in 2006 saw a Tigers Wild Card team make the World Series for the first time since 1984. Detroit’s front office wanted to build off that surprise momentum by making a splash in the trade market. Enter Miguel Cabrera.

Miggy pre-Detroit.

Miguel Cabrera, on the other hand, was no stranger to success and the spotlight. Debuting at 20 years old, hitting a walk-off home run in his first MLB game, and moving to the cleanup spot for the Marlins all within a month. Florida finished with a 91-71 record in 2003 and would go on to make the postseason as a Wild Card team. Cabrera and the Marlins ended up winning the World Series over the touted New York Yankees. Miggy finished the postseason, hitting .265/.315/.471 with 4 HR, 11 R, and 12 RBI in 17 games. His full rookie year stat line is even more impressive: .268/.325/.468, 12 HR, 39 R, 62 RBI in 87 GP. The next four seasons for Florida were no different. 33 HRs and 112 RBI in 2004, 33 and 116 in ‘05, 26 and 114 in ‘06, 34 and 119 in ‘07. An All-Star in all four seasons, receiving MVP votes in each as well. A generational talent on the rise and a commodity that any team would be lucky enough to acquire.

Detroit gets their superstar.

On March 22, 2008, a little over three months after the initial trade, Miguel Cabrera reached an agreement with the Tigers on an eight-year, $152.3 million contract extension. It was the fourth-largest in baseball history and the largest in Tigers history. All before Cabrera’s first regular season at bat with Detroit. A true commitment to secure their centerpiece for years to come.

Miguel Cabrera’s debut came on March 31, 2008, vs the Kansas City Royals. Tigers lose 5-4, but Cabrera finished with a solo home run, demonstrating his immediate impact for Detroit. Miggy finished his inaugural season with the Tigers with strong numbers. .292/.349/.537 and a career-high AL leading 37 HRs. Detroit baseball fans were hooked, and the best was yet to come.

From 2009 to 2014, the Detroit Tigers went on a historic run, and Cabrera was at the center of it all. Cabrera accumulated five All-Star bids, three Silver Slugger Awards, back-to-back MVPs, and the Triple Crown winner in 2012 — the first to accomplish such a feat in 45 years. Miggy’s baseline over those six seasons was a .300+ BA, 30+ HRs with 100+ RBI. 2014 being the exception, finishing just 5 HRs short of that mark. The Tigers, as a team, also saw great success, finishing no worse than .500 and making the postseason from 2011-to 2014 and, ultimately, the 2012 World Series.

Miguel Cabrera quickly became the biggest name in Detroit sports, changing the culture of an organization that struggled for years prior to his arrival.

Miguel Cabrera - First Ballot Hall of Famer

Miguel Cabrera will hear his name called in Cooperstown once he first becomes eligible in 2029.

Cabrera’s career stats are as good as any in the sport.

21 seasons

.306/.382/.518

3,174 Hits (17th all-time)

511 HR (25th all-time)

1,551 Runs

1,881 RBI

One of seven players in MLB history with at least 3,000 hits and 500 home runs.

One of two players with 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, 600 doubles, and .300+ BA.

So I want to say thank you, Miggy. Thank you for all the hits, clutch home runs, and walk-offs, but most importantly, the laughs and smiles you provided us fans with as we watched you play in the old English D. I look forward to watching you get inducted into the Hall of Fame among the other legends of the game in a few years.