The Skippers View: Nick's Picks

The Largest MLB Futures Card Ever Created

Nick Francis — Wed, 26 Mar 2025 13:02:25 GMT

Anybody that follows me, knows that I am a massive futures bettor. Over the last few years, I have made thousands of wagers on baseball. Nothing has profited like my futures cards. Since I have been posting publicly:

2022: +29.75u

2023: +9.92u

2024: +17.05u

Overall: +56.72u

When you invest in futures bets, you need to think of it as an investment. You put money into it, and at the end of the season, you collect that money. I know some people don’t care for futures, but I think it is the most profitable market in all of betting. You just have to have patience.

This Winter, I had been selling access to my futures channel on the Chalkboard app for $15 (my daily bets are free). A lot of these lines are now unavailable — I have been posting futures since December. If you missed out this year, get in early next year.

I have bets posted from:

Bet365 (365)

BetUS (BU)

BetOnline (BO)

Bovada (BV)

Caesar’s (CSR)

DraftKings (DK)

ESPN

FanDuel (FD)

MGM

Before We Dive In

My Scale for betting futures is:

.10u to 3u

Unit guide:

Posted units for minus odds are to WIN.

Posted units for plus odds are RISKED.

Some of these bets are bad:

I told you I’ve been shopping these since December. Some of these bets I don’t really care for anymore. I had my offseason predictions, and some went well, and others didn’t. I will state which bets I’m out on if I had to click tonight.

I hope you enjoy my emoji notes. I was not about to type all of these bets out again…

Team Wins

I am obsessed with the 2025 Red Sox. 3u Max on their over wins. I think they will win 90 games.
I got some insane value on: BOS, LAD, ARI, SDP, NYY, ATL, and CWS. I would still click the other lines that still exist (ATH, WSH, CIN, SEA, TEX, BOS). Some of the others have gotten out of control.
I probably wouldn’t click the Pirates. I thought they would add more offense, and Jared Jones is likely out the first half of the year. It could still hit, but I won’t be surprised if they go under.
The Nationals I think could win 80 games, so I double dipped on a Caesar’s special on them.

Team Futures

I told you, I am obsessed with the 2025 Red Sox. 3u Max on them to make the playoffs.
The A’s playoffs bet was a value play with . That line has gotten stupid. Pass on that.
I do think one of San Diego or New York misses the playoffs in the NL. I bet the San Diego fades before they signed Pivetta and Hart, who I actually really like. Preller did a great job salvaging their offseason. Since the Padres have signed those guys, the Mets have had some injuries to their already not great rotation. Alvarez out a couple of months as well.
The Orioles line has moved too. I’m not sure if I’d click it where it’s at now. The AL is really bad, and they could sneak in, despite having a pitiful rotation.
Please don’t bet the Pirates to win the Central. I’m an idiot for that one. I thought they would sign Santander (or any bat).

Awards

I am proud of nothing more than the value I got on JRod and Langford MVP. Those prices are long gone… I’d still bet JRod, and sprinkle Langford.
I’d probably pass on the Hendricks AL CPoY bet. I thought he would win the closer job, and he would get some extra votes coming back from cancer. Still a remarkable story there. Some good players competing for that award.
Sean Murphy broke rib(s). Pass on that Silver Slugger bet.
Adley 25-1 Gold Glove and Framber 50-1 are probably my two favorite bets on this card. Such stupid value, and such a funny bet on Framber.

Player Props

If you have a BetOnline account, go get that Bichette o.275 line. It’s a good bet.
DK posted some comical ERA lines a few weeks ago. Those should still be up as well.
Connor Norby is out 4+ weeks. Don’t bet his HR prop. If it’s still up, bet the under.
My Cole bet is going to void which makes me sad. I was very out on Cole this year, and I feel like that take was robbed from me. But on a serious note, I hope Cole recovers well.
Some of these counting stat bets were value plays. Don’t bet them if you can’t find a similar line (ex. Witt u33.5 HR, when all other books were around 30.5).
If you can find an Oneil Cruz special to go 30/30, bet that — and then DM me so I can as well.

Specials

It’s the year of Bo Bichette! Hits leader in 2021, 2022, and t10 in 2023. Got hurt last year and is now being totally dismissed. Contract year, lineup protection with Vlad Jr., and Santander. That line has moved a ton, but I’d sprinkle it still.
I’m pretty confident in that Josh Hader bet. I think the Astros will be in a lot of close games, and Hader is still elite. He should have positive regression in save opportunities this year.
That DBack > Padres bet I am less sure of now, vs when I clicked it. I’d pass on it, but I think it still hits. DBacks have better pitching depth, and probably a similar lineup as far as 2025 production goes.
This Halos bet is disgusting. But they open the season: CWS, STL, CLE, TBR. The path is there, and Trout can stay healthy for a couple of weeks right? RIGHT?

If you wanted to count, I did it for you. 83 bets! That’s my new record. I’m not proud of it (unless it’s a massive profit).

Thanks if you read all of this. Thanks even more if you supported my channel this winter. The offseason is actually my favorite time of the year. I get to watch LIDOM, and build my futures card.

I look forward to watching these bets as the season goes on. I hope you have tailed some of them.

If you want to tail my daily bets, join my chalkboard page (nicksMLBpicks). It’s free, and my exposure is much less — to put emphasis my futures card. My unit scale for daily bets is .10u-1u. 1u is a max play, which I probably won’t do any of this year. I am going to be very passive with daily bets this year. I have invested too much into my futures to potentially tank them with some flukey daily action.

Best of luck to you all if you tail! And let’s play ball!

2025 Fantasy Baseball Positional Rankings for Roto

Nick Francis — Mon, 10 Mar 2025 17:19:14 GMT

Have a Strategy

Rankings are far from perfect. I don’t have overall rankings, because I think that those can make things even cloudier.

You need to go into draft with a game plan on where you are comfortable taking a player at each position, and then go from there. Know which positions you need to draft early on, and which you can afford to wait for. That’s what works for me.

There are lots of factors that go into drafting — make sure you take some of these into consideration when you draft a player:

If my roster halfway through the draft is very power heavy, I’ll need to balance it out and take a speedy guy, even if I have the power guy ahead of him. That’s just one of many scenarios that you may run into. Same with pitchers:

If you have a ton of high K upside guys, that may have a high WHIP or ERA, you may have to pick low K, low ratio guy later in draft to even that out and minimize damage to the ratios.

Know Your League Roster Construction/Platform

If you’re in a TWO catcher league, you need to draft one of the top 8 guys at the latest. If you’re in a ONE catcher league, I am pretty comfortable waiting until pretty late in my draft to grab a catcher.

If you are in a 15 team, FIVE outfielder league, I prefer to get a stud outfielder or two pretty early in the draft. In my opinion, outfield has some pretty steep tiers.

As far as platform goes — I used NFBC eligibility for my positional rankings. If you play on Yahoo, the chances are that a ton of guys are missing from some positions below. Use that to your advantage as well, positional flexibility is so helpful — especially in daily lineup leagues.

Advice

There will always be values in drafts. Don’t let your positional draft strategy prevent you from taking obvious values. If a stud 3B is falling, multiple rounds past their ADP, and you already have a 3B, take him! In *most* leagues, you will be able to make trades trades still, and have roster flexibility — whether it be CI/MI/UT spots.

Those are just a few scenarios that can effect your draft strategy. The last piece of advice I’ll leave you with is this:

If you have your GUY, draft him! Even if you have to reach for him. It is okay to reach if you don’t think he will be there at your next pick. It’s especially fine to reach if you really think he is better than the picks ranked ahead of that guy in ADP. Don’t reach for everybody though. You have to play the ADP game to some extent, to build the best team possible.

I really hope these rankings can be of use to you. I have poured a ton of time into them. I will keep updating this through the Spring as injuries derail a lot of my work (as they have already…).

Catcher

William Contreras (MIL)
Yanier Diaz (HOU)
Adley Rutschman (BAL)
Salvador Perez (KCR)
Cal Raleigh (SEA)
Will Smith (LAD)
Willson Contreras (STL)
JT Realmuto (PHI)
Shea Langeliers (ATH)
Gabriel Moreno (ARI)
Austin Wells (NYY)
Logan O'Hoppe (LAA)
Ivan Herrera (STL)
Alejandro Kirk (TOR)
Keibert Ruiz (WSH)
Danny Jansen (TBR)
Patrick Bailey (SFG)
Connor Wong (BOS)
MJ Melendez (KCR)
Bo Naylor (CLE)
Joey Bart (PIT)
Ryan Jeffers (MIN)
Drake Baldwin (ATL)
Sean Murphy (ATL)
Francisco Alvarez (NYM)
Tyler Stephenson (CIN)
Hunter Goodman (COL)
Endy Rodriguez (PIT)
Miguel Amaya (CHC)
Mitch Garver (SEA)
Jonah Heim (TEX)
Agustin Ramirez (MIA)
Adrian Del Castillo (ARI)
Travis d'Arnaud (LAA)
Freddie Fermin (KCR)
Luis Campusano (SDP)
Kyle Higashioka (TEX)
Elias Diaz (SDP)
Luis Torrens (NYM)
Jake Rogers (DET)

First Base

Vladimir Guererro Jr. (TOR)
Bryce Harper (PHI)
Matt Olson (ATL)
Pete Alonso (NYM)
Freddie Freeman (LAD)
Triston Casas (BOS)
Vinnie Pasquantino (KCR)
Christian Walker (HOU)
Josh Naylor (ARI)
Salvador Perez (KCR)
Jake Burger (TEX)
Willson Contreras (STL)
Nathaniel Lowe (WSH)
Cody Bellinger (NYY)
Yandy Diaz (TBR)
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL)
Luis Arraez (SDP)
Michael Busch (CHC)
Spencer Steer (CIN)
Michael Toglia (COL)
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN)
Tyler Soderstrom (ATH)
Jonathan Aranda (TBR)
Nolan Schanuel (LAA)
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY)
Rhys Hoskins (MIL)
Spencer Horwitz (PIT)
Luke Raley (SEA)
Jake Cronenworth (SDP)
Carlos Santana (CLE)
Jeimer Candelario (CIN)
Andrew Vaughn (CWS)
Josh Bell (WSH)
Justin Turner (CHC)
Spencer Torkelson (DET)
Ryan O'Hearn (BAL)
LaMonte Wade Jr. (SFG)
Matt Mervis (MIA)
Deyvison De Los Santos (MIA)
Donovan Solano (SEA)

Second Base

Ketel Marte (ARI)
Ozzie Albies (ATL)
Matt McLain (CIN)
Jose Altuve (HOU)
Marcus Semien (TEX)
Jordan Westburg (BAL)
Xander Bogaerts (SDP)
Brandon Lowe (TBR)
Luis Rengifo (LAA)
Andres Gimenez (TOR)
Nico Hoerner (CHC)
Luis Garcia Jr. (WSH)
Bryson Stott (PHI)
Zack Gelof (ATH)
Luis Arraez (SDP)
Jonathan India (KCR)
Brice Turang (MIL)
Otto Lopez (MIA)
Gleyber Torres (DET)
Maikel Garcia (KCR)
Jackson Holliday (BAL)
Brendan Donovan (STL)
Thairo Estrada (COL)
Kristian Campbell (BOS)
Colt Keith (DET)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT)
Willi Castro (MIN)
Jake Cronenworth (SDP)
Gavin Lux (CIN)
Spencer Horwitz (PIT)
Nick Gonzales (PIT)
Dylan Moore (SEA)
Jorge Polanco (SEA)
Christopher Morel (TBR)
Brendan Rodgers (HOU)
Michael Massey (KCR)
Nolan Gorman (STL)
José Caballero (TBR)
Ryan Bliss (SEA)
Jeff McNeil (NYM)
Richie Palacios (TBR)
Lenyn Sosa (CWS)
Juan Brito (CLE)
Nick Yorke (PIT)
Will Wagner (TOR)
Jon Berti (CHC)
Hyeseong Kim (LAD)
Brooks Baldwin (CWS)
Caleb Durbin (MIL)
Vaughn Grissom (BOS)

Shortstop

Bobby Witt Jr. (KCR)
Elly De La Cruz (CIN)
Mookie Betts (LAD)
Francisco Lindor (NYM)
Gunnar Henderson (BAL)
Trea Turner (PHI)
Oneil Cruz (PIT)
Corey Seager (TEX)
CJ Abrams (WSH)
Matt McLain (CIN)
Bo Bichette (TOR)
Willy Adames (SFG)
Xander Bogaerts (SDP)
Trevor Story (BOS)
Ezequiel Tovar (COL)
Dansby Swanson (CHC)
Masyn Winn (STL)
Anthony Volpe (NYY)
Xavier Edwards (MIA)
Jeremy Peña (HOU)
Carlos Correa (MIN)
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS)
Zach Neto (LAA)
Tyler Fitzgerald (SFG)
Jacob Wilson (ATH)
Ha-Seong Kim (TBR)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT)
Willi Castro (MIN)
Geraldo Perdomo (ARI)
Brooks Lee (MIN)
Ernie Clement (TOR)
Bryayan Rocchio (CLE)
Dylan Moore (SEA)
Orlando Arcia (ATL)
J.P. Crawford (SEA)
Trey Sweeney (DET)
Tim Anderson (LAA)
Luisangel Acuña (NYM)
José Caballero (TBR)
Marcelo Mayer (BOS)
Josh Smith (TEX)
Jordan Lawlar (ARI)
Taylor Walls (TBR)
Colson Montgomery (CWS)
Max Schuemann (ATH)

Third Base

Jose Ramirez (CLE)
Rafael Devers (BOS)
Austin Riley (ATL)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY)
Junior Caminero (TBR)
Manny Machado (SDP)
Jordan Westburg (BAL)
Alex Bregman (BOS)
Matt Chapman (SFG)
Mark Vientos (NYM)
Jake Burger (TEX)
Luis Rengifo (LAA)
Alec Bohm (PHI)
Connor Norby (MIA)
Matt Shaw (CHC)
Isaac Paredes (HOU)
Josh Jung (TEX)
Eugenio Suarez (ARI)
Nolan Arenado (STL)
Max Muncy (LAD)
Ryan McMahon (COL)
Cam Smith (HOU)
Joey Ortiz (MIL)
Maikel Garcia (KCR)
Royce Lewis (MIN)
Noelvi Marte (CIN)
Willi Castro (MIN)
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT)
Miguel Vargas (CWS)
Jeimer Candelario (CIN)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT)
Dylan Moore (SEA)
Christopher Morel (TBR)
Jose Miranda (MIN)
Coby Mayo (BAL)
Jace Jung (DET)
Matt Vierling (DET)
Gio Urshela (ATH)
Ernie Clement (TOR)
Yoan Moncada (LAA)
Lenyn Sosa (CHW)
Jose Caballero (TBR)
Jose Tena (WSH)
Donovan Solano (SEA)
Eguy Rosario (SDP)
Brett Baty (NYM)
Bryan Ramos (CHW)
Max Schuemann (ATH)
Josh Smith (TEX)
Oswaldo Cabrera (NYY)
Oswald Peraza (NYY)
Ezequiel Duran (TEX)
Zach McKinstry (DET)
Ramon Urias (BAL)
Shay Whitcomb (HOU)

Outfield

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP)
Aaron Judge (NYY)
Kyle Tucker (CHC)
Juan Soto (NYM)
Mookie Betts (LAD)
Julio Rodriguez (SEA)
Corbin Carroll (ARI)
Yordan Alvarez (HOU)
Oneil Cruz (PIT)
Jackson Courio (MIL)
Wyatt Langford (TEX)
Jarren Duran (BOS)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY)
Michael Harris II (ATL)
Mike Trout (LAA)
James Wood (WSH)
Jackson Merrill (SDP)
Seiya Suzuki (CHC)
Lawrence Butler (ATH)
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD)
Luis Robert Jr. (CWS)
Riley Greene (DET)
Anthony Santander (TOR)
Bryan Reynolds (PIT)
Randy Arozarena (SEA)
Dylan Crews (WSH)
Brenton Doyle (COL)
Cody Bellinger (NYY)
Ian Happ (CHC)
Jasson Dominguez (NYY)
Steven Kwan (CLE)
Josh Lowe (TBR)
Christian Yelich (MIL)
Nick Castellanos (PHI)
Taylor Ward (LAA)
Colton Cowser (BAL)
Tommy Edman (LAD)
Brandon Nimmo (NYM)
Tyler O'Neill (BAL)
Adolis Garcia (TEX)
Victor Robles (SEA)
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC)
TJ Friedl (CIN)
Garrett Mitchell (MIL)
Michael Conforto (LAD)
Nolan Jones (COL)
Heliot Ramos (SFG)
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS)
Kerry Carpenter (DET)
Jurickson Profar (ATL)
Lane Thomas (CLE)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI)
Jake McCarthy (ARI)
Lars Nootbaar (STL)
Brendan Donovan (STL)
Chas McCormick (HOU)
Cedric Mullins (BAL)
Jorge Soler (LAA)
George Springer (TOR)
Alec Burleson (STL)
Jung Hoo Lee (SFG)
Byron Buxton (MIN)
JJ Bleday (ATH)
Evan Carter (TEX)
Wilyer Abreu (BOS)
Victor Scott II (STL)
Willi Castro (MIN)
Jordan Walker (STL)
Brandon Marsh (PHI)
Jo Adell (LAA)
Trevor Larnach (MIN)
Matt Wallner (MIN)
Spencer Steer (CIN)
Jonny DeLuca (TBR)
Miguel Vargas (CWS)
Luke Raley (SEA)
Jacob Young (WSH)
Jesus Sanchez (MIA)
Dylan Moore (SEA)
Matt Vierling (DET)
MJ Melendez (KCR)
Andrew Benintendi (CWS)
Heston Kjerstad (BAL)
Jeff McNeil (NYM)
Max Kepler (PHI)
Daulton Varsho (TOR)
Tommy Pham (PIT)
Roman Anthony (BOS)
Sal Frelick (MIL)
Jose Siri (NYM)
Starling Marte (NYM)
Ryan O'Hearn (BAL)
Jake Fraley (CIN)
Pavin Smith (ARI)
Andy Pages (LAD)
Colby Thomas (ATH)
Parker Meadows (DET)
Zac Veen (COL)
Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN)

Starting Pitcher

Garrett Crochet (BOS)
Paul Skenes (PIT)
Zack Wheeler (PHI)
Tarik Skubal (DET)
Logan Gilbert (SEA)
Cole Ragans (KCR)
Jacob deGrom (TEX)
Blake Snell (LAD)
Corbin Burnes (ARI)
Dylan Cease (SDP)
Framber Valdez (HOU)
Michel King (SDP)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
Pablo Lopez (MIN)
Chris Sale (ATL)
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL)
Shane McClanahan (TBR)
Bryce Miller (SEA)
Tyler Glasnow (LAD)
Bailey Ober (MIN)
Hunter Greene (CIN)
Justin Steele (CHC)
Joe Ryan (MIN)
Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
Zac Gallen (ARI)
Freddy Peralta (MIL)
Tanner Bibee (CLE)
Aaron Nola (PHI)
Sonny Gray (STL)
Luis Castillo (SEA)
Logan Webb (SFG)
Bryan Woo (SEA)
Spencer Strider (ATL)
Max Fried (NYY)
Shota Imanaga (CHC)
Jack Flaherty (DET)
Hunter Brown (HOU)
Kodai Senga (NYM)
Robbie Ray (SFG)
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)
Jesus Luzardo (PHI)
Nick Pivetta (SDP)
Nick Lodolo (CIN)
Gavin Williams (CLE)
MacKenzie Gore (WSH)
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU)
Ryan Pepiot (TBR)
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA)
George Kirby (SEA)
Seth Lugo (KCR)
Roki Sasaki (LAD)
Kevin Gausman (TOR)
Zach Eflin (BAL)
Tanner Houck (BOS)
Walker Buehler (BOS)
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)
Brandon Woodruff (MIL)
Clay Holmes (NYM)
Dustin May (LAD)
Reese Olson (DET)
Jeffrey Springs (ATH)
Shane Baz (TBR)
Carlos Rodon (NYY)
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI)
Taj Bradley (TBR)
Bowden Francis (TOR)
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL)
Reynaldo Lopez (ATL)
Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
Ronel Blanco (HOU)
Ranger Suarez (PHI)
Drew Rasmussen (TBR)
Luis Severino (ATH)
Michael Wacha (KCR)
Kris Bubic (KCR)
Osvaldo Bido (ATH)
Erick Fedde (STL)
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)
Jose Soriano (LAA)
Jackson Jobe (DET)
Reid Detmers (LAA)
Kumar Rocker (TEX)
Grant Holmes (ATL)
Jameson Taillon (CHC)
Jose Berrios (TOR)
Mitch Keller (PIT)
Casey Mize (DET)
Michael Soroka (WSH)
Nick Martinez (CIN)
Clarke Schmidt (NYY)
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL)
DJ Herz (WSH)
Kyle Hart (SDP)
Ryan Weathers (MIA)
Matthew Boyd (CHC)
Edward Cabrera (MIA)
Max Meyer (MIA)
Tobias Myers (MIL)
Nestor Cortes (MIL)
Triston McKenzie (CLE)
Lucas Giolito (BOS)
Brady Singer (CIN)
Merrill Kelly (ARI)
Tyler Anderson (LAA)
Justin Verlander (SFG)
Sean Manaea (NYM)
Luis L. Ortiz (CLE)
David Peterson (NYM)
Andrew Abbott (CIN)
Jordan Hicks (SFG)
Hayden Wesneski (HOU)
Kyle Wright (KCR)
Dean Kremer (BAL)
Tyler Mahle (TEX)
Chris Paddack (MIN)
Andrew Heaney (PIT)
Aaron Civale (MIL)
David Festa (MIN)
Cade Povich (BAL)
Jose Quintana (MIL)
Will Warren (NYY)
Jack Leiter (TEX)
Andrew Painter (PHI)
Jared Jones (PIT)
Brayan Bello (BOS)
Bubba Chandler (PIT)
Yu Darvish (SDP)
Sean Burke (CWS)
Cristian Javier (HOU)
Eury Perez (MIA)
Shane Bieber (CLE)
Hayden Birdsong (SFG)
Max Scherzer (TOR)
Ben Lively (CLE)
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN)
Kyle Harrison (SFG)
Zack Littell (TBR)
Ryne Nelson (ARI)
Alex Cobb (DET)
Chris Bassitt (TOR)
Joey Cantillo (CLE)
Tylor Megill (NYM)
Kutter Crawford (BOS)
Quinn Mathews (STL)
Zebby Matthews (MIN)
Bobby Miller (LAD)
Jordan Montgomery (ARI)
Griffin Canning (NYM)
Quinn Priester (BOS)
Cody Bradford (TEX)

Relief Pitcher (saves leagues)

Josh Hader (HOU)
Devin Williams (NYY)
Edwin Diaz (NYM)
Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
Ryan Helsley (STL)
Felix Bautista (BAL)
Mason Miller (ATH)
Jhoan Duran (MIN)
Andres Munoz (SEA)
Alexis Diaz (CIN)
Trevor Megill (MIL)
Ryan Walker (SFG)
Robert Suarez (SDP)
Justin Martinez (ARI)
Jeff Hoffman (TOR)
Kenley Jansen (LAA)
David Bednar (PIT)
Ryan Pressly (CHC)
Jordan Romano (PHI)
Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
Carlos Estevez (KCR)
Tanner Scott (LAD)
Kirby Yates (LAD)
Jason Foley (DET)
Liam Hendriks (BOS)
Aroldis Chapman (BOS)
A.J. Puk (ARI)
Chris Martin (TEX)
Calvin Faucher (MIA)
Ben Joyce (LAA)
Griffin Jax (MIN)
Edwin Uceta (TBR)
Porter Hodge (CHC)
Lucas Erceg (KCR)
Robert Garcia (TEX)
Seth Halvorsen (COL)
David Robertson
Prelander Berroa (CWS)
Seranthony Dominguez (BAL)
JoJo Romero (STL)
Chad Greene (TOR)
Cade Smith (CLE)
Jason Adam (SDP)
Orion Kerkering (PHI)
Camilo Doval (SFG)
Justin Slaten (BOS)
Jose Leclerc (ATH)
Beau Brieske (DET)

More Resources

Thanks, as always, if you used this as a resource. If you enjoy my content, follow me on X, nicksMLBpicks. If you ever have any questions, fantasy or betting-related — shoot me a DM, and I’ll answer whenever I can!

Fantasy Baseball "Sleeper" Pitchers for 2025

Nick Francis — Thu, 06 Mar 2025 14:00:59 GMT

I put out my Sleeper Hitters piece a few weeks back, but now it’s time for some arms!

If you’re looking for pitcher “busts” I have them in my Fantasy Baseball “Busts” Piece.

I do use and appreciate advanced metrics, and analytics, but I won’t be spewing them out in this piece. My blurbs will essentially be a summarization of why I like these guys, and what I think 2025 can look like for them.

My fantasy blogs are all driven towards standard roto scoring, and all of my ADP data, is from FantasyPros.

Let’s get to it.

Nick Pivetta, Padres (209 ADP)

I loved Nick Pivetta entering last season. I wouldn’t even say people that drafted him were burned entirely. He had a 4.14 ERA, and one horrendous start at Coors (you should’ve benched him then anyways). I agree he was a disappointment, but I think it was kind of another “worst case” type outcome for Pivetta. He then went on the shelf with a flexor strain on his right elbow (pitching arm).

Pivetta has had two home parks in his career. Citizens Bank Park, and Fenway Park. For pitchers, The Bank is 4th worst in HR park factors, and Fenway is 2nd worst in overall park factors. Now he will be heading to PetCo Park, which is the 28th BEST ranked park for pitchers, according to BaseballSavant’s Park Factors.

The Padres offense will allow a win to be in play for Pivetta in most of his starts. Pivetta will be around 1.2 K’s per inning, will be around a 1.15-1.20 WHIP, and in a best case scenario will have a mid-3’s ERA. His xERA last year was 3.51. I think 3.75 is realistic for Pivetta.

10+ wins, 180+ K’s, 3.75 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP around pick 200 is a great value.

Nick Lodolo, Reds (237 ADP)

I don’t think people need to be told anything about Nick Lodolo that they haven’t already heard. But last year to me, felt like Lodolo was rushed back, and was off balance from the start. He wasn’t fully recovered from a leg injury in the Spring, so he didn’t get a normal Spring Training; then he ended up getting a blister on his finger, which actually lead to all sorts of grip and nerve issues for him. There was actually some pretty glaring data to back this up:

In 2023 his Curveball had 15.0 inches of break, and in 2024, it had 11.4 inches of break (baseballsavant).

I honestly have no idea what a statline from Nick Lodolo would look like in a full season. It’s not happened at this level. I don’t think he can be your ace, but I think he can be an SP2 if he’s right. If we do get 150+ IP from Lodolo this year, there is no doubt in my mind that he will be a top 30 pitcher in fantasy — he is being drafted as the 70th…

Walker Buehler, Red Sox (247 ADP)

Alright, alright. 2nd Tommy John this, 5.38 ERA that… I think if I had 100 people who knew baseball relatively well, and had them guess how old Walker Buehler was, they would all say older than 30. But he’s just 30, he signed a “prove it” deal in Boston, who has a great pitching department.

Something clicked for Buehler in the playoffs last season. I personally was ready to dismiss this, and chalk it up to adrenaline — but then he looked like he did in October this week in Spring Training. If the Red Sox get a guy close to that, then he is a huge value at this ADP.

I want to clarify, that I personally don’t believe we will see “Cy Young candidate” Walker Buehler this year, or ever again — but I do believe that he will be a fantastic SP2/3 for your team, with respectable ratios, K numbers, and a high potential for wins on this Boston team that I believe will win 90 games.

Jesus Luzardo, Phillies (282 ADP)

Jesus Luzardo, man. Some of my “day one” friends, might be chuckling at this one. I have been tooting the Luzardo horn since his prospect days for the A’s. I had him everywhere for his 2023 breakout; I did remain level headed in 2024, and passed on his top dollar draft price. But now, he’s back in the late 200’s!

Luzardo will always have blow up games. That part of his game may not ever go away. But Luzardo has very strong strikeout upside, and is on a “phantastic” Phillies team (had to do that) that will be in the mix for wins regularly. As far as ratios go, I mentioned the blow up starts, I think at this point we know who and what Luzardo is. So I wouldn’t expect much better than a 3.50 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP. But I would almost suggest that he is a shoe in for that, as well as 1.2 is K per inning, with high probability for double digit wins.

DJ Herz, Nationals (347 ADP)

I may be a little too high on DJ Herz, which is odd because I wouldn’t say I am infatuated with him and his stuff — I just feel like people are dismissing him for lack of MLB track record.

Last year, Herz came on to the scene, had a 3.26 xERA, and had 106 K in 88.2 IP. He also had a sub .224 xBA on all three of his main pitches (knuckle curve got crushed, but he only threw it 3% of the time). Herz MiLB track record is fine as well, mid-3’s ERA, 1.20 ish WHIP, and 1.4 K per inning (lol).

But the strikeout upside is really why I like Herz. If you told me that he has a 4.00 ERA at the end of the year I wouldn’t be surprised. But at this price, if Herz tossed 160+ innings with 200 K’s and a 4.00 ERA, I’d count this take as a success. I think he has better than a 4.00 ERA, and I think it’s fair to suggest it to be possible.

Andrew Painter, Phillies (352 ADP)

Andrew Painter is a draft and stash. He won’t be IL eligible, so keep that in mind. I don’t have a ton to write here, because the name and profile kind of speaks for itself.

Andrew Painter will be up at the latest in June, but when he does come to the big leagues, He will have a Skenes “lite” impact. He was the number one pitching prospect pre Tommy John for a reason. Go look up his MiLB stats if you want good laugh. Painter can legitimately be one of the best pitchers on your team down the stretch of the summer.

Dustin May, Dodgers (395 ADP)

Dustin May might grab this last Dodgers rotation spot and never give it back. I am aware that Ohtani will be back on the mound at some point, but we can’t pretend that Dodgers pitchers don’t take frequent trips to the IL. I think May will be useful all season long. Another post Tommy John guy that I am excited to see, freed from injury.

May will be pitching in a tough division, and will likely have a start or two in Coors, so maybe bench him there. But May has always had really solid ratios, and will always be in the mix for wins on this LA juggernaut. Don’t expect more than 1 K per inning from this sinker baller, however.

The coolest thing about the pitchers that you draft this late, is if May is the long reliever (he won’t get sent down because he has zero options remaining), you can just drop him, and pick up another guy who is intriguing in shallow leagues. In deeper leagues, just hang on to him, because he is much better than Tony Gonsolin, and a Dodgers pitcher will take a trip to the IL at some point. Bobby Miller will be competing with him as well, but I’m don’t think I can take him too seriously at this point.

Kris Bubic, Royals (395 ADP)

Bubic is all but assumed to be the Royals 5th starter this season. He’ll be in a great ballpark for suppressing home runs, as well as a pitcher’s division.

Bubic has a 3 pitch arsenal, with a sinker that he rarely threw last year as the 4th. He seemed to have ditched the curveball for his disgusting slider (11 inches of break). He was out of the pen when he returned last year, so I’m not quite sure what he will look like as a starter as far as velocity goes, and strikeout stuff. But I am intrigued, and I really want him on my teams.

Osvaldo Bido, Athletics (464 ADP)

I told Will from , that my goal this offseason was to find the next Athletic’s player that nobody was talking about, that could be great! I ended up on Bido.

Osvaldo was on a few of my teams down the stretch last season, and it was a blast. Last season he had FIVE pitches with a sub .200 xBA against. WHAT? Now, I don’t know how real that is. He had a 2.72 xERA in 63.1 IP in 2024, with 63 K’s.

He won’t be as much a wins threat as some of the guys on this list, but the A’s could be pretty fun this season, especially if Bido is even somewhat close to what he was last season.

Bido doesn’t have the best MiLB track record, so I worried that this was a flash in the pan, but there is some real changes he made. He raised his 4 seam, and cutter usage, and lowered his sinker usage. He also lowered his arm slot from 37 degrees, to 34 degrees.

The “bad” here, is that he will be pitching in a Minor League ballpark this season, that is expected to be pretty hitter friendly. Oakland also had a ton of foul territory for pop ups to turn into outs. There will be a lot less of that.

Definitely my biggest blurb on any of these guys. Go get Bido (unless you’re in my leagues)!

Michael Soroka, Nationals (546 ADP)

This is probably a name that some of you haven’t heard in a while! But the former Braves standout pitched pretty (terribly) for the White Sox last season, but now signed a deal with the Nationals. I don’t know why, but I’m just intrigued. I think this Nationals team can be sneaky, and if Soroka can complete this long road recovering and be close to what he was in Atlanta, he will be a fun player to have on your 15-teamers.

There is no strikeout upside here, but Soroka has the potential to pitch deep into games and be a ratio merchant for your team.

Kyle Wright, Royals (596 ADP)

Another former Brave! This one really doesn’t have any hard analysis too, but this is almost pick 600!

Kyle Wright was an obvious overachiever in his 2022 All-Star campaign, and then had a shoulder injury that ended his 2023, and put him out for all of 2024. The Royals in early 2024 swapped a previously well regarded prospect, Jackson Kowar for him.

I think that Wright can still contribute to some extent. He’s in a great park, and a great division to pitch in, and what if he is just a good pitcher that overachieves his underlying metrics? At this late in the draft, I want to scoop up Wright just to be on board if that is in fact the case!

Kyle Hart, Padres (676 ADP)

It’s funny that any time there is an extreme case of something, people want to find what the “next” thing it will be in the coming season. Last year it was Erick Fedde, coming over from winning the "equivalent of the Cy Young in the KBO, and then being a solid MLB arm. This year I think it could be Kyle Hart. He did the same thing as Fedde in the KBO award wise, and is pretty much guaranteed the 5th spot in the Padres rotation.

To be completely transparent, I’m not sure if Hart will amount to anything in 2025. If he stinks, drop him. But I am excited to take him as a flier. He has a great park to pitch in, and is surrounded by some pretty sharp pitching minds.

No Reliever Pitchers, what?

I don’t have any sleepers here, but I have advice:

I play in mostly saves leagues, so my advice there, is draft a guy early and lock in one of the studs! I like to grab a middle of the pack guy like Kenley Jansen, Alexis Diaz, or Trevor Megill. Then draft a wildcard/handcuff guy for the third slot. That advice may be awful for you, but it’s worked for me. There are always closing opportunities that open up during the season; so spend your faab there, and capitalize on that.

I don’t have the best Saves+Holds league advise. I don’t play in enough of those leagues to give credible advise.

If you play in a H2H Categories league, punting saves is actually a sick option in my opinion. Pass early on closers and grab another big bat or ace! Late when league mates are scooping closers, grab your sleeper hitters/pitchers. The “all SP” strategy has worked for me in H2H leagues. Try to win: K’s W’s and the hitting categories. I am a firm believer that anybody can win ratios on any given week in a H2H week. If you can stream SP’s on the waiver wire in daily leagues, do that!

I high advise against punting categories in a roto league.

Thanks For Reading!

As always, I appreciate anybody who is willing to support myself and/or The Skippers View. I hope this piece can be of use to you in your draft(s).

Go check out my stuff on X, @nicksMLBpicks.

2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets at Each Position

Nick Francis — Wed, 26 Feb 2025 16:31:07 GMT

I was going to put this into a tweet, but then it began to be insanely too long, and I wanted to elaborate on some things. So here we are.

These are my main targets at each position.

All Average Draft Position data is from FantasyPros.

Catcher

Yainer Diaz (74 ADP)

Sean Murphy (234 ADP)

Francisco Alvarez (180 ADP)

Alejandro Kirk (300 ADP)

Let’s clarify here. I like Yainer this year, but I probably will only be taking him in TWO catcher leagues. In single catcher leagues, I am waiting on drafting this position — unless somebody like Yainer Diaz, Cal Raleigh, or Salvador Perez fall (a lot).

I think Sean Murphy will payout similar production to Adley Rutschman this season. Yes, you read that correctly.

Francisco Alvarez has to break out eventually. Right? He might have the highest power upside at the position.

Alejandro Kirk finally has the job in Toronto all to himself. I like him to be a contributor in average (.275), and respectable R/RBI.

Just a side note here, I really wanted to have Willson Contreras (STL) on this list, but he is going earlier than I thought he would. He lead ALL catchers in wRC+ last year. He’ll be playing first base this season, so he likely won’t have the usual days off that catchers have.

First Base

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (13 ADP)

Matt Olson (31 ADP)

Pete Alonso (42 ADP)

Triston Casas (118 ADP)

Michael Toglia (215 ADP)

Jonathan Aranda (359 ADP)

Unlike catcher, I actually am an advocate for drafting first base early. In 15 team leagues with corner infield spots, first base can go downhill, QUICK. If it falls out from under you, grab Michael Toglia, who will destroy your batting average, but could hit 30 PLUS home runs for the Rockies. If you miss out on Toglia, you aren’t completely screwed.. Draft Jonathan Aranda.

Matt Olson doesn’t need much elaboration. The Braves have the best offense in baseball this year, and he’ll bounce back from his feeble 98 RBI in a down year.

Pete Alonso is hitting behind Lindor and Soto. What?! RBI Galore. 30 HR floor as well.

This is the year of Triston Casas too. I’m tired of the hate, guys! I know he’s a weirdo, but he is a stud!

Second Base

Xander Bogaerts (145 ADP)

Brandon Lowe (227 ADP) (Don’t wait that long)

Zack Gelof (263 ADP)

Jonathan India (228 ADP)

Thairo Estrada (324 ADP)

Otto Lopez (332 ADP)

Brendan Rodgers (442 ADP)

As you can tell, I’m waiting at second base. There is a lot of late value at this position.

Xander Bogaerts got hurt for like the first time ever, and now we all hate him? His floor is what a lot of second basemen’s upside is.

Lowe if healthy is a 30+ HR threat. Gelof has 20/20 type upside, but has a pretty low floor. India is a safer floor, and is really a Runs/AVG specialist.

Thairo Estrada is just one of those guys who you can grab late, and see how Coors field treats him. 15 HR / 20 SB is reasonable, with an average that won’t kill you.

Lopez is a AVG/Steals guy. His defense is excellent, and the Marlins are awful — so he will probably play every day.

Brendan Rodgers just signed with the Astros, and could end up being their starting second baseman. He has HR and RBI upside, but that’s it. I’m oddly excited about the former top Rockies prospect. Health is major a factor with him.

Shortstop

Bobby Witt Jr. (My 1.01)

Oneil Cruz (64 ADP)

Bo Bichette (135 ADP)

Trevor Story (286 ADP)

Xavier Edwards (162 ADP)

Jacob Wilson (358 ADP)

Shortstop is probably going to be draft dependent for me. I’m not opposed to drafting any of the top guys. Mookie Betts’ positional flexibility is a nice luxury, on top of him being a pretty good baseball player.

Oneil Cruz is also outfield eligible, so pencil him in for outfield if you swing and miss drafting outfielders. I think he finally “arrives” this season.

Bichette and Story are “my guys” that I really want. I’m buying into Bichette having an extra pep in his step for his contract season. Bo lead the league in hits in 2021, 2022, and was top 10 in 2023. He gets hurt in 2024, and we all dismiss him in his contract year? Make it make sense. I even like him to steal 10+ bags as a bonus.

If Trevor Story gets hurt, have Marcelo Mayer queued up.

Xavier Edwards is the “slap dick” prospect that Blake Snell famously talked about in Tampa. Well he’s a Marlin now, and could hit .290 and steal 40 bags. 0 HR’s is in the realm of possibility though — kidding (kind of).

Jacob Wilson only played 79 games in the minors, but hit .401. Yes that was his batting average. He is the A’s #1 prospect. This is a Luis Arraez type profile that is in a good lineup (so are the padres), a minor league ballpark, and after pick 300. Really good consolation if you miss out on those other guys.

Third Base

Junior Caminero (102 ADP)

Alex Bregman (97 ADP)

Connor Norby (288 ADP)

Noelvi Marte (330 ADP)

Miguel Vargas (451 ADP)

In my opinion, there isn’t anything holding back Junior Caminero from producing like the other elite third basemen HR/RBI/R/AVG wise. He isn’t going to steal more than a few bags. But he’s the real deal, and is in a MiLB park all season.

Bregman doesn’t have the Caminero upside, but does have an incredibly high floor. Just be patient with him in April, because he is historically not good then. He is going to pepper the Green Monster, and will be hitting behind Duran and Devers. Sign me up for all of the RBI!

I wrote about Connor Norby in my sleepers piece, check it out!

For those of you that remember, I was infatuated with Noelvi Marte last year, then he got popped for PED’s and was dreadful when he returned. I’m not saying go out of your way for him, but if he is on the board late, he still has 20/20 upside. He is in the most hitter friendly park in baseball for home runs.

Miguel Vargas I believe can hit for a solid average and hit 20 HR’s if all breaks right. He is really only applicable in deep leagues. He is also outfield eligible, so pencil him in there as well. If you’ve forgotten, this guy was one of the jewels of the Dodgers farm for a couple of years. Just because he got sent to the South Side, doesn’t mean he needs to be dismissed.

Outfield

Fernando Tatis Jr. (13 ADP)

Julio Rodriguez (22 ADP)

Oneil Cruz (64 ADP)

Mike Trout (102 ADP)

Luis Robert (111 ADP)

Dylan Crews (145 ADP)

TJ Friedl (273 ADP)

Garrett Mitchell (278 ADP)

Michael Conforto (317 ADP)

Chas McCormick (420 ADP)

Victor Scott II (464 ADP)

Miguel Vargas (451 ADP)

Roman Anthony (288 ADP)

Colby Thomas (487 ADP)

My outfield draft decisions are pretty directly related to how the rest of the positions go. I prefer to get an outfielder in the first round. Ideally Tatis, but JRod is a great consolation.

Oneil Cruz like I said earlier will only be my shortstop if I miss on the others, otherwise, I am plugging him into my outfield, and getting a nice Dominican duo of one of Tatis/Rodriguez and Cruz to start the big rounds of my draft.

Trout and Robert really are paired together due to injury concerns. I’d rather have Trout, but people don’t seem to be afraid of his injury concern, and take him before I can. For what it’s worth, Trout has moved from centerfield and has changed some of his off field regiment in an effort to stay healthy this season. Fingers crossed.

LuBob is still an incredible talent. I think the mental aspect of being on the worst team in baseball (by a lot) got to him. There are still red flags here aside from injury concern, but he’s so talented.

Dylan Crews could go 20/40, and have a Corbin Carroll-esque rookie season for the Nats. I wouldn’t mind drafting his teammate James Wood either.

TJ Friedl isn’t the sexiest name on here, but he is in line to bat leadoff for the Reds, and could be a 15/15 guy with respectable run production. He’ll be a wash in AVG and RBI. If news comes out that he is not leading off for the Reds, get him off of your draft board.

I wrote about Garrett Mitchell, Michael Conforto, and Victor Scott II in my sleeper hitters piece, so refer (again) to that.

Chas McCormick was fantastic in 2023, then he was a complete BUST in 2024, which most people saw coming. But now he’s being completely disregarded, and I’m not having it. He hit .273 and almost went 20/20 in 2023. He was hurt most of 2024, so it’s not like that talent has disappeared. He’s going so late that it almost doesn’t matter if his talent actually did disappear. Worth a shot!

If news breaks that Roman Anthony makes the Red Sox Opening Day roster, he will be the American League Rookie of the Year. I just don’t really know if they will have him on the roster. He is mainly on here due to the fact that most of you will know if he is or not by the time you draft. He’s a must draft if he does make the club.

If Colby Thomas makes the Opening Day roster for the A’s, he better be on your team. The #7 prospect for the A’s hit .277, 31 HR’s and had 15 Steals in AA/AAA last year (132 Games). Now I do recognize that he hit in the PCL which is very hitter friendly, but you’ll never guess which league the A’s home park belonged to in 2024.

Starting Pitcher

Garrett Crochet (34.6 ADP)

Jacob deGrom (63 ADP) (read this before you yell at me)

Bailey Ober (87 ADP)

Framber Valdez (58 ADP)

Spencer Schwellenbach (98 ADP)

Grayson Rodriguez (107 ADP)

Zac Gallen (103 ADP)

Robbie Ray (191 ADP)

Nick Lodolo (248 ADP)

Jesus Luzardo (277 ADP)

Nick Pivetta (208 ADP)

MacKenzie Gore (216 ADP)

Bowden Francis (198 ADP)

Quinn Matthews (407 ADP)

Osvaldo Bido (465 ADP)

Dustin May (393 ADP)

Despite betting 3 of the last 6 Cy Young winners, I am far from a pitching guru, so I won’t have a huge blurb about all of these guys. I did write an article about deGrom, so check that out. I have deGrom, Crochet and Ober as my AL CY bets this year. I usually just do two, but Ober was 100-1. How could I resist?!

My main logic for Zac Gallen is that he is very resilient, and is in a contract year. Great team offense, and he pitches deep into games. Wins will be solid, respectable ratios (bad WHIP last year, but that is an outlier). Pretty similar logic for Framber Valdez too. Valdez was absurd to end last season. He is also entering a contract year.

Schwelly is another guy who broke out last year that I am in on. I can see him being the Braves SP1 this season. He may or may not be a NL CY pick of mine (he is).

I think Grayson Rodriguez finally arrives in 2025. I think the Orioles might think so too. They have completely neglected the high end pitching department since Burnes has left for Arizona.

Robbie Ray apparently is working on a changeup that Tarik Skubal helped him with? He pitches in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball at suppressing HR’s, and has Patrick Bailey calling his games and framing for him? And he won a Cy Young once upon a time? Tommy John honeymoon period? Sign me up. Elite K stuff, but will have some serious blow up starts. If he can minimize the blow ups, he’ll be really fun to roster this year.

Nick Lodolo needs to stay healthy. That’s the analysis.

I don’t think I’ll ever give up on Jesus Luzardo. I was out on him last year, after his draft price was just out of my range. He won’t ever be a Cy Young candidate like I predicted a few years ago, but Luzardo will have ratios that won’t kill you, and will contribute K’s and Wins being on a great Philly team this year. He’s very undervalued, because the ratios do have upside if Philly can tap into him like they have with someof their other recent breakout pitchers.

Are we really doing Nick Pivetta again? Yeah, I’ll bite. He’s in one of the best pitcher parks in baseball, after being in Fenway and Citizen’s Bank. Fenway is the 2nd best for offense, and Philly is 5th best for home runs. He has fantastic K stuff, and I think was pretty close to putting it all together the past two years, but had some flukey injuries.

I actually debated on leaving MacKenzie Gore off of this list. He’s so frustrating. But I don’t think he gets worse — he’s too talented. I think the Nationals take a step forward as a team, and I believe he will be heading the rotation in doing so.

Bowden Francis was pure comedy to watch at the end of last season. He straight up toyed with hitters. He has a cool last name too. I actually think he could be the ace of the Jays’ ancient staff this season.

Quinn Matthews has succeeded in the minors, and it’s only a matter of when he does in the majors. I really don’t worry about the “if.” The Cardinals *should* be trading Erick Fedde and/or Sonny Gray, so there should be open rotation spots in STL, and Quinn should be first in line.

Osvaldo Bido was so good last year, I actually have no clue why his price is as low as it is. His new ballpark may be bad, but aside from that, he could be a serious contributor to your 15 team rosters.

If Dustin May gets the Dodgers 5th or 6th rotation spot, there is no way he is giving it back. May will potentially give you good ratios, and wins. Any K’s he gets are a bonus.

Relief Pitcher

*saves leagues*

Josh Hader (62 ADP)

Raisel Iglesias (82 ADP)

Alexis Diaz (164 ADP)

Trevor Megill (192 ADP)

Kenley Jansen (244 ADP)

Edwin Uceta (357 ADP)

Josh Hader is my RP1 this year. I’m looking forward to his second season in Houston. He should have some positive regression as far as save opportunities go. Elite in all RP categories (maybe not “elite” in WHIP).

Iglesias in my opinion is on the best offensive team in baseball, and will have a ton of save opportunities. He’s as safe as it gets for closers at this point in the draft.

Alexis Diaz to me just doesn’t seem like his job is at risk. The Reds bullpen is pretty bad. Diaz was overworked in 2023, and I felt that 2024 was a wash for then entire Reds team. I think he will be solid this year.

Did 2024 not happen? Megill at 192? This makes zero sense. He will probably be a top 10 closer this year.

Kenley is old, but one thing he is adamant about, is that his arm is fresh. He didn’t start pitching until he was about 20 years old. I think this is a good move for the Halos, and Jansen can get you a good amount of saves late(er) in your draft.

Edwin Uceta isn’t the frontrunner for saves in Tampa (yet). There have been rumors of Tampa shopping Fairbanks, and that would open the door for Uceta. However, even if they hang on to Uceta, Fairbanks is unfortunately a mainstay on the Injured List, and also has struggled to pitch in cold weather due to Raynaud’s Syndrome. So Uceta could alleviate that issue early on for Tampa. Even if Uceta gets zero saves this season, he will provide elite ratios, and can have win opportunities.

You made it.

Thanks for reading, and I fully expect my league mates to use this list against me, but alas, here I am writing it anyways.

Go follow me on X for my Baseball Bets and Fantasy content @nicksMLBpicks.

Fantasy Baseball "Busts" for 2025

Nick Francis — Sun, 09 Feb 2025 14:02:14 GMT

I think it’s really important for me to preface this with the fact that I don’t actually enjoy writing negative things about players. It’s just a part of this game. I enjoyed writing my Sleepers piece much more.

I also want to make it clear that the term “bust” doesn’t always mean a player will suck, and tank your team. It can mean that — but I want to emphasize that some of these players are not busts but are “overvalued” by their Average Draft Position.

Lastly, all of my fantasy content and rankings are directed toward standard 5x5 roto, weekly lineups. Most is still interchangeable, but keep that in mind if you are a points league player, or H2H 5x5 with daily lineups.

Logan O’Hoppe, LAA

162 FantasyPro’s ADP, 10th Catcher. My 15th Catcher.

2024: .244 AVG, 20 HR, 64 R, 56 RBI, 2 SB

O’Hoppe was actually my favorite catcher to draft last year. In the first half, he was solid. The second half was pretty dreadful, though (.578 OPS after the All-Star break, bad). He also had a 29.7 K% for the full season, which was alarming. It’s the same skillset on a talented player that will have another year of experience under his belt. So why am I labeling him as a bust?

The Angels signed Travis d’Arnaud this Winter, and I think that he will take away a lot of games played and at-bats for O’Hoppe. Fangraphs also has O’Hoppe projected to bat 7th for the Halos. Slotted in front of Yoan Moncada and Anthony Rendon… For what it’s worth, I personally don’t think he’ll actually bat 7th.

For whatever reason, O’Hoppe was horrid vs LHP last year and had a .592 OPS. But I didn’t see anything in his MiLB career that suggested he was a platoon risk. It may be the outlier in his career, and this year, he could erase those doubts. But I’m not sure he gets the chance to. d’Arnaud had a .922 OPS vs. LHP last season, so we could be looking at a platoon for O’Hoppe.

I think if the Angels do platoon O’Hoppe, it will be a huge mistake, and could hinder the long term development of the O’Hoppe, who is the franchise backstop for them. But when was the last time the Angels made a wise baseball decision?

If O’Hoppe is platooned, he still could be elite vs RHP. So, if you play in a daily lineup league, he could be great. But he’s being drafted as a guy who will play every day and produce for you! I’ll take Sean Murphy, who will be 100 picks later.

Paul Goldschmidt, NYY

166 FantasyPro’s ADP, 15th 1B. My 23rd 1B.

2024: .245 AVG, 22 HR, 70 R, 65 RBI, 11 SB

I don’t really have a ton to write here. I don’t think that this is a hot take by any means. Goldy was a favorite of mine for such a long time in fantasy, but not in the last few years, and definitely not this year.

Goldy has been on a gradual decline for 2 years now. Please don’t yell at me for using non-advanced stats that are from the dark ages, but in 2023, he had a .268 AVG with 25 HR, and in 2024, he hit .245 with 22 HR. I know his draft price isn’t projecting him to hit .290 and 35 HRs again, but I wouldn’t be so sure that he will hit .250 and 20 HRs. He is 37 years old. The guy they just moved on from, in Anthony Rizzo, is 35! I don’t expect the bottom to completely fall out on Goldy, but it is a possibility, and I am staying away. Spencer Horwitz will be better, and you can get him 130 picks later!

Brice Turang, MIL

131 FantasyPro’s ADP, 7th 2B. My 18th 2B.

2024: .254 AVG, 7 HR, 72 R, 57 RBI, 50 SB

This is the easiest one for me. Turang came on the scene as a surprise to me last year. I waited for the bottom to fall out, and it didn’t… Until after the All-Star break. Post ASB, he had a .564 OPS.

Yes he is fast. Yes he steals bags. But he can’t steal from the bench! And I think that is a legitimate possibility for Turang if he starts 2025 out like he ended 2024.

He is being drafted around, and ahead of SO many good players, it blows my mind. Steals are also not as important as they used to be in fantasy. Please don’t draft Turang unless you get an insane discount. And even then, I don’t know if I’d draft him.

If you really need a steals guy for 2B, Zack Gelof will be available 100 picks later, and could also hit 20 HR’s!

Willy Adames, SFG

68 FantasyPro’s ADP, 8th SS. My 14th SS

2024: .251 AVG, 32 HR, 93 R, 112, RBI, 21 SB

This is another that was pretty easy for me.

Adames was playing for a contract last year. I am a believer in the “contract year” narrative. So the biggest thing there, is the steals. He had 21 steals last year. He has never stolen more than 8 in his career. He is 50th percentile in sprint speed. Do not expect many steals if you draft him.

He is also going from the 6th best park for right handed power, to the 28th… (baseballsavant park factors). So despite savant saying there would be no change in HR’s for Adames, I do not expect a 30 HR season in 2025.

I apologize that this blurb is short, but I also wrote about him in my “unpopular takes” piece as well. I think this is short, and to the point however.

Get Bo Bichette 30 picks later, and even later than that, Trevor Story or Dansby Swanson 100+ picks later.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC

164 FantasyPro’s ADP, 40th OF. My 46th OF.

To be transparent, I am not in love with labeling PCA a bust. I only have him six spots below his ADP. When I drew him up as a bust, it was from the NFC ADP, which was 135. 164 and later is something I could (potentially) entertain.

PCA’s defense alone will keep him in the Cubs lineup, so I don’t worry about him getting benched, but there are serious concerns about his bat.

I know that Pete can steal a bag better than 99% of the league, but you have to get on base to get those steals. And as I said for Turang, steals are not as crucial for fantasy as they once were. It isn’t worth tanking your average for.

If you are looking for a steals specialist, go draft Jake McCarthy 100 picks later or Victor Scott II 200+ picks later…

Gerrit Cole, NYY

43 FantasyPro’s ADP, 10th SP. My 28th SP.

2024: 95 IP, 8 W, 99 K, 3,41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

In my “Unpopular Takes” piece a few weeks ago, I wrote that Cole would be “just a guy.” So, I obviously disagree with his high ADP. I think Cole is still a good pitcher, but he is being drafted to be an ace. And I think if you draft him this early to be that, it will be a mistake. Especially ahead of some really remarkable players that are being drafted after him.

Regarding his performance last year, I do think he overachieved. PitcherList agrees as well, with their 3.91 xERA on him. I’m not saying that Cole will have a 4.00 ERA. But with him not throwing his Slider as much (15%), I think his strikeouts will be underwhelming, and he will be more hittable than we are used to seeing. If he is more hittable, he doesn’t have the best infield defense behind him, either. I also think that there is a potentially unsolved injury risk with his elbow from last season. Hopefully, I am wrong there, but he has that looming on top of my performance concerns.

I think Cole is a great enough pitcher to have a respectable “post-ace” career and be a fine pitcher. But as of right now, all of the following metrics are middling: average EV, Chase %, Whiff %, HH%, GB%. His extension has always been middling, so I excluded that. The most significant difference from 2023 was his Chase %. 2023 was 29.9, and 2024 was 27.3. His FB velo also dropped from 96.7 to 95.9.

I think there are a lot of pitchers being drafted after Cole that will outperform him.

Roki Sasaki, LAD

100 FantasyPro’s ADP, 29th SP. My 37th SP.

2024 NBP: 111.0 IP, 129 K, 2.35 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

My concern with Sasaki, is that the Dodgers’ intention with him is to develop him long term. That is why the 23-year-old signed there (supposedly). So they don’t need to push him this year. So there will likely be a cap on his innings since 129.1 is the most he has thrown in a professional season, and it’s not like the Dodgers actually NEED him to win the NL West. The Dodgers will also be running a 6-man rotation this season. So when Roki is starting, he won’t get any two start weeks.

There were also elbow concerns in Japan last year. He lost a few MPH on his fastball, and it got hit pretty hard.

So, you combine the following concerns:

Innings, Elbow, Bad fastball?

I don’t think that is a recipe to encourage me to draft him around the 100th pick.

For my dynasty folks, please don’t misconstrue this. I like Sasaki. He might have the best Splitter in the world. But for the 2025 leagues, his ADP is too high. I would happily take him in the long term, though.

Emmanuel Clase, CLE

41 FantasyPro’s ADP, 1st RP. My 3rd RP.

2024: 74.1 IP, 4 W, 47 S, 66 K, 0.64 ERA, 0.66 WHIP

Okay. I guess I’ll be the clown to say this.

Clase had 50 Save opportunities last season. That is 30% of Cleveland’s games! And he converted 47 of them. So why am I labeling him as a bust?

He is being drafted too high. I don’t think he will get close to 47 Saves in 2025, and he will likely get you only 60s. I think Josh Hader and Devin Williams will outperform him in most categories. I think Edwin Diaz could as well.

Clase was a Cy Young candidate last year. He had a .61 ERA. I recognize how insane I seem by putting him in this piece. But I stand by it. I’m not going to write much about his 9.00 ERA in the playoffs this Fall, but that was slightly concerning.

Clase will still probably be a top 5 closer this year. But I recommend waiting another round or two and drafting one of Josh Hader, Devin Williams, or Edwin Diaz to be your RP1. Draft an elite bat or ace for your staff in the round that Clase will be drafted. If he falls, then take him!

Please don’t take this as a “Emmanuel Clase will be terrible in 2025.” I don’t think that. You can say that I think he is overvalued, and due for regression.

Conclusion, with “Honorable” Mentions

You may have noticed that I left out a third baseman here. I went back and forth, but I didn’t want to have a name as a bust just for the sake of it. But the two guys who I think have bust potential are the two guys with their futures looming — ~~Alex Bregman~~ and Nolan Arenado.

Bregman has been scratched out. Fenway is one of the destinations where I believe he can succeed. He is 8th in my 3B rankings.

The fantasy outlook of those two cling desperately on the ballpark and lineup that they get traded/signed too. They both have middling power. Arenado has already shown signs of decline, and has had back issues for a couple years now.

So ~~Bregman~~ and Arenado are my honorable mentions, as well as Tyler Stephenson, Catcher for the Reds. The Reds trading for Jose Trevino kind of grossed me out a bit for Stephenson’s value. Last year, he had some DH at-bats mixed in, but I don’t see that being the case with all of the mouths to feed in Cincy. I think Stephenson could sit more than you’d desire from the 11th-ranked catcher.

Last HM: The Rays pitching staff. I wrote about this in Unpopular Takes for 2025, that I now have mentioned three times. Check it out.

Conclusion, for real this time.

Thanks for reading, and I apologize if I hurt any feelings. I don’t root for any player to fail (maybe a few in my life), so this wasn’t the most fun I’ve had writing a piece. My intention here is just to state my opinion on guys to avoid in your drafts.

Go follow me on X nicksMLBpicks, get the Chalkboard app, and join my board there as well.

Why Jacob deGrom Will Win the 2025 American League Cy Young Award

Nick Francis — Thu, 23 Jan 2025 14:11:15 GMT

In late 2022, Jacob deGrom signed a 5-year $185,000,000 contract with the Texas Rangers. He was mocked for saying that he signed with them to win a championship. Those cold takes were exposed in the Fall of 2023, when the Rangers did just that.

In 2023, he pitched just 30.1 innings while making $30,000,000. Last season, he got paid $40,000,000 to recover from his second Tommy John surgery and then throw 10.2 innings. His first TJS came in 2010 when he was still in the minors. This season he will make $40,000,000. In 2026, $38,000,000, and $37,000,000 in 2027. In 2028, there is a club option for $20,000,000.

I say all this just to preface one thing. deGrom is a competitor. He is not a “mooch” that is looking to collect a (big) check. His goal this season is to “make as many starts as possible.”

“You sign here to pitch, and I haven’t been able to do that.”

It’s also stated that they want to be smart about him, and not jump to 200-something innings. This is all from the piece below, on MLB.com.

Healthy deGrom ready to 'see what we can do' in 2025

The most important thing to me was that deGrom was already able to return from his injury and spin a few innings at the end of last season. In those 10.2 innings, his fastball was back to 97 mph, and had 17.4 inches of IVB. Which is right on par with his career. He also had a 2.51 xERA on Baseball Savant. I know it’s an extremely small sample size, but it showed me everything I needed to see.

Here is the movement profile from BaseballSavant.

Those three starts were also important to deGrom.

He said this about the three starts at the Ranger’s FanFest: “That way, I could treat it like a normal offseason and not feel like I was in rehab mode the whole time.” So that’s what this offseason has been, you know, normal throwing. Been off the mound already, and everything feels good.”

Those quotes are from OurQuadCities.com.

The above text is all factual information. So now I would like to add my subjective opinion on predicting Jacob deGrom’s 2025.

I don’t think that anybody reading this needs to be convinced that the guy with a career 2.52 ERA, and two Cy Young awards is a good pitcher. So, I won’t be trying to convince you of something that you already know. What I want to do is convince you that deGrom can be healthy in 2025…

But before I do that, I will link these two overlays from on X to remind you how ridiculous a healthy deGrom was…

https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1380938331001880579

https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1567875496175669249

deGrom and The Rangers Have Nothing to Lose.

The Rangers, in my opinion, are in their last real year of competing for an American League pennant. The roster is getting older. Semien is 34, Eovaldi will be 35, and deGrom is 36. They are also ranked in the bottom third of farm system rankings by most outlets (for what it’s worth). But this 2025 roster is very exciting, and capable of making a playoff run, and the Rangers believe that as well.

Why would they hold deGrom back? He isn’t a Spring Chicken like Shane McClanahan this year, Garrett Crochet last season, and many other young pitchers who have been (rightfully) eased into their returns from injury. He is at the home stretch of his career, and I see him maximizing every last bit of it. So, I don’t see him having a soft launch into action. As stated earlier, he has already thrown some innings back at the MLB level, is having a normal offseason, and feels good.

Even if he doesn’t throw 200 innings, this is a new era of baseball. Since 2021, six of the last eight CY winners threw less than 200 innings. Gerrit Cole and Sandy Alcantara were the two that did put up over 200 innings when they won their awards.

He’ll Be 37. Are You Nuts?

Yeah, I guess I am nuts.

But I am a believer in the two-year window where the surgically repaired elbow following Tommy John surgery is very strong. There has been discourse on this, and some people believe it to be false. Maybe we will get a study on it, or maybe there is one, and I just missed it. I am not afraid of pitchers failing after Tommy John anymore unless they weren’t that good prior. In my opinion, we’re talking about the most dominant pitcher of our modern era.

I probably shouldn’t bring up the best case ever of an older ace returning from TJS, but I will. But are we forgetting that Justin Verlander returned in 2022 at age 39 and won the AL CY Unanimously? deGrom is a more dominant pitcher than Verlander.

We just saw Chris Sale, in his age-35 season, win a unanimous Cy Young in the NL. This is after not being able to stay on the field for a very long time, just like deGrom. I just want people to understand that it isn’t as far-fetched as it seems, and it is possible.

To further cement my age case, here are 10 Cy Young award winners that were older than Jacob deGrom from StatMuse.com.

If you’re initial reaction to that image is “but that list is full of Hall of Famers!” I want to remind you what this blog is about…

(Yes, I know Clemens isn’t in the HoF, but not because of his performance, and Dickey is obviously a unique case).

This is his 2nd TJS. Nick, are you dense?

No, I’m not dense (not entirely).

I am well aware that this is deGrom’s second TJS. There are not a lot of success stories on recovery from a second. But there also aren’t that many cases out there yet. However, a fellow Texas Ranger has had a very successful career following his second TJS. Nathan Eovaldi had his first in High School, and then his second in 2016. Since his return, he’s been healthy for the better part of the past seven years.

Walker Buehler was the latest to return from his second TJS. Buehler was eased into his return and was not his old self. But deGrom had his surgery two months earlier in the year than Buehler. Let’s also not pretend that Buehler’s performance wasn’t showing signs of decline before his injury as well. For what it’s worth, I am also excited about Buehler’s first full year back.

I would count Cole Ragans as a success story, but he had one surgery, and then another surgery to fix the first surgery due to some issue that I do not know. Bad recovery? Surgery mistake? No clue. But if you want to help my argument even more, then sure let’s count him!

Stop Trying to Predict Injuries.

There is no such thing as a pitcher that is a “safe bet” to stay healthy. Yes, deGrom has gotten hurt. A lot. As soon as he started throwing harder, he began to get hurt. I get it. But there is no guarantee that the other guy you are betting on will stay healthy either. Since 2021, 160 MLB pitchers have had UCL-related injuries. That’s not counting any other type of injury.

I would seriously argue that DeGrom is less of an injury risk than a lot of other pitchers. I see it in the sense that he got it out of the way, and now he can let it rip for the rest of his career. Getting hurt and having TJS isn’t a good thing. It’s objectively a bad thing. But in the context of how many pitchers are having UCL injuries in this era, I see it optimistically, as if it were in his past.

Here is a graphic from a great piece on mlb.com regarding UCL injuries. Check it out if you have some extra time. It does talk about other injuries to pitchers as well.

So, if you want a worse pitcher for your fantasy team, or you are betting on a worse pitcher because of their health, just remember you are betting on a worse pitcher. Because nobody is better than a healthy Jacob deGrom.

I Hope I Convinced You.

Unless you are in fantasy leagues with me, if so, then disregard everything I just said.

If you are part of my chalkboard page (nicksMLBpicks) and in my 2025 futures channel, then you got a 20-1 Jacob deGrom AL CY ticket along with me on MGM. If you aren’t in it, then you missed out, and you can get him at 11-1. Then join my Chalkboard so you get the best lines/prices… haha.

In all seriousness, I do love deGrom this year, and if you are a doubter of his ability to be healthy, I hope I can at least move some of you to the middle ground of that opinion. Because the discourse on deGrom on X in very polarizing. I would like to think that I am not completely alone in my optimism for deGrom.

If you made it to the end of this, I’ll once again plug my Futures Channel, and give out a couple of my favorite bets regarding the Rangers:

Rangers o84.5 Wins

Rangers to make the playoffs

Go follow me on X, @ nicksMLBpicks.

Nick's Most Unpopular Takes for the 2025 MLB Season

Nick Francis — Mon, 20 Jan 2025 15:55:13 GMT

Tarik Skubal Will be Human.

This is a take I didn’t expect to have this year. Any of you who follow me may be scratching your head at this. Skubal was one of my AL CY bets and treated me very well last year! But let me elaborate.

Tarik Skubal returned from flexor tendon surgery in late 2023. When he returned, he was as dominant as any pitcher in the league. This was all I needed to see to make him my 2024 American League Cy Young pick.

During the 2024 season, there was talk that the Tigers were going to limit his innings down the stretch. That obviously didn’t happen because of the improbable and magical run that they went on.

Tarik ended up spinning 211 innings in his first full season back (including postseason). I am also going to make the argument that his final five starts were considered high leverage starts (31 innings). That includes his three postseason starts, and his final two of the regular season.

Now, I don’t have the historical statistics to back this up, but here is my reasoning for my take that he’ll be human in 2025:

Returning from injury, throwing 211 innings, and pitching halfway into October does not encourage me for his follow-up season’s production.

This isn’t me saying that Skubal will get hurt. I just think that the sudden wear and stress could catch up to him, and he will be less dominant. Two of the most recent pitchers that fit this bill (and are not Skubal caliber pitchers) are Jordan Montgomery (2023 into 2024) and Nathan Eovaldi (2018 into 2019). Montgomery’s is a bit different since he signed so late in the winter, but I think it is comparable. Baseball is cruel, and unpredictable, staying at the top of the game in back to back years is difficult. Although, if any pitcher could repeat a 2024-type season, it’s Skubal. I am just betting against it. His ADP of 15 on NFC makes him a player I won’t have in any fantasy leagues.

The Rays Pitching Staff Will Be Underwhelming.

The Rays have had the benefit of calling Tropicana Field their home park for years. That is not the case this year. That matters to me, and here is why:

Pitchers “Stuff” at the Trop has had a bump compared to other parks. I’m not exactly sure why, but it has. On top of that, it’s been noted that the batter’s eye there can make it difficult to pick up pitches. I credit the foundation of this take to Chris Towers of CBS. Here is a graphic on tjStuff+ from Thomas Nestico:

I also care about this because the dimensions at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa are the same as those at Yankee Stadium. Now, Yankee Stadium has a Park Factor of just 100, which is average, but an HR Park Factor of 119, and is third in baseball. Yankee Stadium also does not have the same Florida heat and humidity to help the ball carry. I think this will be a legitimate concern for the Rays pitching staff. It also rains almost every day at some point in Tampa. So there will be even more starts cut short and bullpen games for Tampa, despite rearranging their Summer schedule a bit.

The Rays staff is going from a league-average home park, where stuff is played up and a batter’s eye that was difficult for hitters, to what could be a top-five offensive environment this year.

I think it will affect Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and Ryan Pepiot mostly. Taj was in the 2nd percentile in average Exit Velocity in 2024. Pepiot actually was a favorite of mine last year, and was going to be this year as well. The park change has made me pivot. Pepiot also got hit pretty hard last season and has a poor Ground Ball % (35%, and 10th percentile). Shane Baz was a guy that I stashed in most fantasy leagues last year. He was FILTHY in 2021. When he returned this year, I felt while watching him that he was underwhelming and, even in his good starts, didn’t seem in control. The stats back this up, as he had a 24% chase rate (6th percentile) and a 42% hard-hit rate (21st percentile). I think that the park change will affect these three the most.

Shane McClanahan has been hit with a 150-inning cap this year. I love Shane. I think he’ll be great for those 150 innings, maybe a slow start, easing back into action. But Tampa will have to somehow finagle a cap on him, whether that means shorter starts, a phantom IL stint, or something else. I don’t see this as a Skubal situation where Tampa will be in the playoff race, so I don’t foresee them going against that. If you are a Cy Young Award bettor like myself, keep this information in mind.

The Padres Miss The Playoffs.

Here we go… The Padres have been a team that I have secretly been a fan of, since my Red Sox have stunk, and I really love Fernando Tatis Jr. I was all in on them last year. I bet them to make the playoffs, their wins over, and them to win the National League (so close). This year I am just not feeling it.

The rotation is paper thin. They have Michael King, and Dylan Cease. Then they have 38 year old Yu Darvish, 5.94 xERA Randy Vasquez, and Matt Waldron, who was sent to AAA last year. This team needed Roki Sasaki desperately. Now that his signing is announced, I have clarity of the Padres rotation.

I obviously love the top end of this lineup, but it’s the back end that is concerning for me. Last year going into Spring, people had the same concerns, but then Profar, and Merrill happened! I’d be very surprised if they pay Profar to return, and I’d be just as surprised if he matched his 2024 production. A great 1-5 lineup only gets you so far. You need that back end to at least be serviceable.

There is also a lot of turmoil surrounding the Padres. The lawsuit with the ownership, the swirling rumors of trades to shed salary. All of that trickles down to the clubhouse.

Since this is my '“unpopular” post, I also think that it is not a guarantee that Jackson Merrill will take a step forward in 2025. I don’t have the analysis to back that up, I just think that he is being assumed to be a star again in 2025, when the big leagues are SO difficult. The “Sophomore Slump” is a thing. I love Jackson Merrill, but I am just being cautious this season. For my fantasy crown, his draft price is also pretty expensive and isn’t baking in much room for error (29 on NFC).

The NL Will have:

West: Dodgers, presumably

Central: Cubs?

East: Braves?

Then, for the wildcard, they would have to be better than:

Arizona, New York, and Philadelphia. Because the Dodgers are not losing the division.

For my betting friends, two of my future bets are:

Padres are u89.5 -110 on Bet365, and Padres have no playoffs +175 on BetUS.

The Orioles Miss The Playoffs.

I like the Orioles lineup. What isn’t to like? I do think that they need to get some clarity on who is starting where, and who is in AAA and who is not. Hopefully that is worked out this Spring, whether it be via trade, or play. Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad do not belong in AAA. Fangraphs also has Jackson Holliday in a platoon, which is interesting.

But the pitching is the real problem. Grayson Rodriguez has the pedigree. He could very well become the ace that he was expected to become. But he hasn’t shown the dominance that we saw in the minors, and he was banged up last year. I think it is fair to say that Zach Eflin is a fine MLB pitcher, but nothing more than that. Then we have 41-year-old Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, and Tomoyuki Sugano (who I would say is a wild card and could be good).

I say pitching, and not just starting pitching, because they also are counting on Felix Bautista to come back from injury and be who he was in 2022 and 2023. That very well could happen, for his sake and Orioles fans, I hope it does. But they don’t have much of a contingency plan aside from that. Last year’s closing situation for Baltimore was very interesting. As a whole, the 2024 pen had a 4.22 ERA (3.66 SIERA which is encouraging).

The pitching could also be affected furthermore, by the corrections to the left field wall at Camden Yards. This won’t be a massive problem, but it isn’t going to help an already weak pitching staff. Here are the new dimensions. It’s nothing to scoff at.

The AL will have:

East: Yankees or Red Sox

Central: Let’s say Royals?

West: Let’s say Astros?

I don’t think they win the East, so they would have to oust: Seattle, Texas and one of the Yankees/ Red Sox. I don’t think that in a 162 game season that their pitching staff will be enough.

If you are mad at me for this take, take it out on Mike Elias and not me. They needed to address this pitching staff. As of January 20th, they have not.

I have Orioles to miss the playoffs at +220 on MGM. I will say, I like the Padres to miss more than the O’s. The AL playoff race will be softer than the NL.

Gerrit Cole is just a guy.

In the Spring of last year, Yankees fans got the WORST news imaginable. “Gerrit Cole will undergo an MRI on his elbow.” It turned out to be not so bad, and Cole let his elbow recover without surgery. He ended up piecing together a respectable 3.41 ERA in 95 innings and pitched well in the playoffs.

Looking under the hood, there isn’t anything egregious about Cole’s 2024 that suggests he’ll be bad in 2025. But PitcherList’s xERA for Cole last year was 3.91. Yes, 3.91 would be an okay ERA. But not for Gerrit Cole.

No, I’m not basing this take on a single xERA stat. Cole hasn’t been getting the whiffs for some time now. He actually won a Cy Young in 2023 with his worst whiff % since he was a Pirate in 2017. So, that isn’t painting the whole picture, either.

My main point, is that Cole is hittable now. To steal Isaac Groffman’s line regarding Corbin Burnes, “He is not an ace anymore.”

Yes, Cole was good in the playoffs, but three of his five starts were against AL Central teams. Let’s stop pretending that those were great lineups. He also allowed 19 Hits and six walks in the three starts vs the Central teams and had just 12 K’s (16.1 IP). To defend Cole, with the lack of Ks, those Central teams were elite at not striking out.

Against the Dodgers, in Game 1, Cole actually pitched really well. Game 5 is a different story, no matter what the “earned run” line tells you.

Cole’s best swing-and-miss pitch, his slider, was only thrown 15% of the time last year. He typically throws this 23% of the time. If an ace doesn’t have his best pitch, is he really an ace?

I think Cole is a great enough pitcher to have a respectable “post-ace” career and figure things out. But as of right now, all of the following metrics are middling: average EV, Chase %, Whiff %, HH%, GB%. His extension has always been middling, so I excluded that. The most significant difference from 2023 was his Chase %. 2023 was 29.9, and 2024 was 27.3. His FB velo also dropped from 96.7 to 95.9.

Gerrit Cole is a Hall of Famer. I’m glad he got a Cy Young in 2023. He deserved it. But if you draft Gerrit Cole as your SP1 in Fantasy, you will disappointed. I would also avoid his season-long prop overs.

Willy Adames Is a Fantasy Bust.

Willy Adames was outstanding last year. Here is his standard statline:

93 R, 32 HR, 112 RBI, 21 SB

But Willy was also playing for a contract. I am a big buyer of the “contract year” narrative. Adames was also playing in the 6th best park for right-handed HRs (111), according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors. His new home park is 28th (79)… For what it’s worth, park factors still say he would have had 31 HRs last season if every game were played in San Fran. We’ll see…

Adames also has just 50th percentile sprint speed, and stole 21 bags. Prior to 2024, he had never had more than eight swipes… Last year, he was obviously playing with something to prove. We also don’t know if San Fran will give him the green light to steal.

Adames will likely be around a .240 hitter, which in 2025 doesn’t kill you, but he won’t steal, and he won’t hit 30 HRs. I will have zero teams with Adames on them this year. His ADP on NFC is 74.

Honorable Mentions.

The White Sox win at least 50 games.
The Tigers miss the playoffs.

Thank you if you made it to the end!

That concludes my list, and I hope I didn’t make anybody’s blood boil too much. If you are interested in any other betting and fantasy content that I put out, I have a Chalkboard page (nicksMLBpicks) where I post all of my Future bets, Daily MLB bets, Dominican Winter League bets, and Fantasy Rankings. I have posted 33 Futures bets for the 2025 season at the time of writing this. The link to the Chalkboard app is in my X bio (@nicksMLBpicks).

What is the LIDOM Round Robin?

Nick Francis — Wed, 01 Jan 2025 21:53:18 GMT

The Dominican Winter League has been a part of my offseason entertainment for a few years now, and every season is just as exciting, and passionate as the one before. But they do things a little different than our beloved MLB does. Let’s get into it.

The regular season for them is 50 games, beginning in mid-October. The four teams with the best records advance to the “Round Robin.” The Round Robin is an 18 game Round Robin style playoff, where every team plays each other 6 times (not in a series setting). The two teams with the best records at the end of the 18-game Round Robin advance to a best-of-seven championship series. The winner of that, wins the title. The winner of LIDOM, gets the honor to represent the Dominican Republic in the Caribbean Series, about a week later.

Here is the Round Robin Schedule (via @lidomrd on X):

The great Tigres del Licey have won the LIDOM championship in back-to-back years. Last year, despite a rather rough regular season, they rallied at the end to make the Round Robin, and win it all. Tigres Del Licey doesn’t need the most talent to win. They are the most fundamentally sound club consistently, and have a roaring crowd of Licey fans at their home ballpark (which they share with Albert Pujols’ club, Leones del Escogido).

The Caribbean Series this season, takes place in Mexicali, Mexico. Last year it was in Miami, where the Tiburones de la Guaira (managed by Ozzie Guillen) from the Venezuelan league won. They beat Tigres del Licey in the championship. that were trying to go back to back in the Caribbean series as well.

The 2025 Caribbean Series will feature:

Mexico
Venezuela
Dominican Republic
Puerto Rico
Japan (Guest Country, and first EVER appearance in the CS)

I am extremely excited that Japan is a part of this contest this January.

But I’m not here to write about the Caribbean series! As I get off track, I’ll reel us back into LIDOM, leaving the Caribbean series behind.

As far as LIDOM history goes, here is the league champion count:

Tigres del Licey - 24
Aguilas Cibeanas - 22
Leones del Escogido - 16
Estrellas Orientales - 3
Toros del Este - 3
Gigantes del Cibao - 2

This year, Estrellas Orientales (managed by Fernando Tatis), have the best record heading into the Round Robin. Something noteworthy, is that the Estrellas have lost in the championship series THREE years in a row. Back to back losses to Tigres del Licey.

Here are the complete standings from this year’s regular season (via @lidomrd on X):

In my opinion, by far the most INTERESTING part of the LIDOM season, is the draft de reingreso (re-entry draft). In a nutshell, each team that advances to the Round Robin, gets to draft SIX players from the eliminated two teams (Gigantes & Toros). Here is the draft order for this season (via @lidomrd on X):

To follow the draft order, here are the draft results (via @lidomrd on X):

Twenty-four players from teams that are eliminated get a chance to play for glory for their temporary team. I think it’s such an interesting wrench to throw into the tournament, and it makes it very exciting. The best teams get better, the stakes get higher, the pace picks up, and the best rise above.

This season has been exciting. the Leones had an extremely hot start to the season, but fizzled as the season went on, and snuck into the Round Robin.

The Aguilas (managed by Yadier Molina) are following a pretty disastrous 2023/2024 season and have qualified for the dance as well.

The Tigres and Estrellas have been a staple in the Round Robin for a few years now and really seem to have developed a “Dodgers/Padres” type of rivalry.

To wrap this all up, I’d love to see Las Estrellas raise the trophy this year. They’ve fallen just short in three straight years, and they have a chance to prove everybody wrong. If you want to watch the Round Robin, go to MLB TV’s website (or app), and purchase the “Offseason Package". It is $29.99, and you can watch every game (in Spanish), as well as almost every Spring Training game! It is the best value that MLB TV offers, in my opinion, all year long.

I hope you learned something by reading this, and I hope you get to sit down and watch some LIDOM this month! I will be posting my LIDOM picks every evening on my Chalkboard and X account (@nicksMLBpicks).

If you haven’t already, please consider subscribing below.

A Guide to Drafting a Second Baseman

Nick Francis — Tue, 17 Dec 2024 21:00:47 GMT

In this piece, I am going to dive into the best way to build your roster based on what your team needs at certain points in a draft and I’m going to highlight which second basemen will bring what to the table. If you have drafted a power heavy team, you’ll need to supplement that with some steals, or potentially average. Designating second baseman in those categories is the intention of this piece.

*This is all written in a roto, and categories context*

This is my list of guys that will either contribute in 5/5 categories, or will at least not HURT you in any category:

Jose Altuve, Astros (56)
Jordan Westburg, Orioles (100)
Matt McLain, Reds (110)

Gap…

Luis Garcia Jr. WSH (126)
Xander Bogaerts, SDP (161)
Luis Rengifo, LAA (170)
Bryson Stott, PHI (172) *Stott will likely sit vs LHP
Zack Gelof, ATH (226)
Kristian Campbell, BOS (389)

It is worth noting that Jose Altuve could potentially be a negative at RBI. He had 65 last year in 153 Games. He is also 34 and could run less. He might be too pricey for me this year.

If any of you are wondering why I have Jordan Westburg here, his 91st percentile Sprint Speed (baseball savant) suggests positive regression with steals. Westburg has the potential to be a complete stud at the position this year. I’m not sure if I will draft him at this spot much, but I don’t fault anybody that does.

Matt McLain is probably my early favorite of the bunch, following a lost year due to injury, I expect big things from him. He should contribute in all 5 categories and if he plays 150 games healthy, I project him to go 25/25 with 80 R/RBI (potential for 90 runs), and hit at least .250.

My reason for a gap, is because I have these guys below labeled as my “Mid 5/5” guys. they will contribute to some extent in all 5. They aren’t the studs, but can be valuable.

Bryson Stott would be a fine pick for daily leagues. He still isn’t a terrible pick for weekly lineup leagues but the Phillies started to platoon him last year, and unfortunately, I think they will continue to do that. He still brings a lot to the table on his days vs RHP.

Zack Gelof, I have labeled as a positive regression candidate for AVG. Gelof, despite being dreadful at the plate last year, almost went 20/20. His xBA last year was .199. Yes, it was that bad. So why is he a positive regression candidate? Gelof was never anything close to that bad in the minors. And a devil’s advocate argument for this, could be “Well, he played in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.” Guess which league the Sacramento River Cats played in? The PCL. Oakland was 23rd in Park Factors. Sacramento should be at the very least a small upgrade. It also has less foul territory for foul pop up outs, if you really want to get into it. Gelof is a very talented young player. I am looking forward to the A’s offense, and I think he will be a fun part of it this year.

Kristian Campbell should have a disclaimer next to him because he may not be up with the Sox on Opening Day. But if he is, he is an instant Rookie of the Year candidate and a steal in drafts. Last year, at three levels of MiLB, he batted .330, with 20 HR, 24 SB, 77 RBI, and 94 R (115 Games). He’s the whole package. The Red Sox 2B situation is a bit foggy, with Vaughn Grissom (who they traded Chris Sale for), David Hamilton, and Campbell. I think Campbell’s talent will win out.

“4 Out of 5 Guys:”

Ketel Marte, ARI (27) *Low SB*
Spencer Horwitz, PIT (440) *Low SB*
Michael Massey, KCR (518) *Low SB*
Nico Hoerner, CHC (175) *Low HR*
Andres Gimenez, TOR (182) *Low HR*

Ketel Marte being a part of this is a bit disrespectful of me, but it is true. He isn’t going to get you more than 10 stolen bases and if he gets you close to that, be grateful. Ketel is the #1 2B for a reason though. His production in all 4 categories make up for what he doesn’t do in the steals department. His average may not be elite, but it won’t hurt you. He’s a stud. If healthy he’s the #1 by a wide margin. He had a 151 wRC+ last season, and the closest behind him at 2B was Altuve with 127 (tied with Spencer Horwitz as well).

I think this blob can be a bit misleading overall because it insinuates that these guys are elite in all 4 other categories, and that’s not my intention. I am looking at this from a “they will contribute in all but…” type of list.

Spencer Horwitz at this number is an absolute robbery and he will not be in the 400’s for long. Pittsburgh gave up a good package for him, so I imagine they got him to play 1B every day (while eligible at 2B for fantasy).

My “Specialists” are to supplement your roster later in the draft. Look at what categories you are missing, these are quality players that can contribute greatly in mainly one category.

Specialists:

Brice Turang, MIL (138) *SB*
Maikel Garcia, KCR (209) *SB*
Jose Caballero, TBR (288) *SB*
Dylan Moore, SEA (545) *SB*
Brandon Lowe, TBR (155) *HR*
Christopher Morel, TBR (303) *HR*
Luis Arraez, SDP (184) *AVG/R*
Jonathan India, KCR (260) *R*

Honorable Mentions:

David Hamilton, BOS (505) *SB*
Ryan Bliss, SEA (735) *SB*
Brooks Baldwin, CWS (740) *SB*

I think Brooks Baldwin has the best chance to contribute the most of this group. I don’t see as much positional competition. Ryan Bliss would be a dart throw. David Hamilton really stepped up last year. But I unfortunately don’t see him having the same opportunity. I think Boston will give Grissom and Campbell all of the opportunity. So despite an injury or trade, I have my doubts that he will start.

Brice Turang is labeled as a specialist to me, despite his great production last year. But I will likely not have Turang in any leagues this year. That may be a mistake, but his production in the second half last year was so bad at the plate, I have my doubts that he is even a starter all season. The Brewers have a plethora of Middle Infield talent, and if Turang can’t bounce back in the Spring, then drafting him in the early 100’s will sting. I think in this new base stealing environment, it doesn’t make sense to pay that much just for steals. I am a fan of mixing it in with each draft pick (with exceptions as always).

Maikel Garcia was one of my favorite picks last year. He ended up being a good pick, but I think if the Royals get the opportunity to move on from him via trade, or a fellow teammate usurps him, they would be about it. As a “real life” hitter, he was pretty dreadful last season. But, as things stand now, he can be a steals specialist. He is still just 24, so they may let him ride another season. Which would be great if you draft him.

Jose Caballero, I think the Rays aren’t finished tapping into. They worked on turning him into an Isaac Paredes type project, and sold out for pull side hits. I think if they trust him for another season, he can tap into it even more, on TOP of the steals he will contribute. The Rays moves this offseason will help indicate whether the playing time will be there for him.

Dylan Moore is a guy that I don’t have a huge blurb for. If you need steals badly, take him late. He won’t contribute very much elsewhere and I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle moved on from him if they get a better option. As it stands, he is valuable as a specialist but he will hurt you in average.

Brandon Lowe was going so late last year, and I took him quite often. I like him again this season especially with a home park upgrade in Steinbrenner Field. He’s a great bet for home runs again this season. Health has always been his biggest issue.

Christopher Morel, I feel like has been the king of potential for 3 years now. If anybody can tap into it, it is Tampa. I am not sure where I stand on him. He really will tank your average, and I don’t see the steals upside as much as I used to, but the power upside is there. I have soured a bit on the potential, but I’m not out completely.

Luis Arraez is a guy that I will love no matter how much hate he gets. He will be so good in average, and if he remains in San Diego, will contribute in runs as well. He won’t steal, hit for power, or get many RBI but I can supplement that elsewhere. His batting average production, and runs are so safe, if he falls into my lap in drafts, I will have a hard time passing.

Jonathan India was absolutely a ‘Great American Ballpark merchant.’ But Kauffman Stadium has so much open space for hits. The park factors are still good, despite being bad for power. India batting in front of Bobby Witt, gives the potential for a very gaudy amount of runs and the average won’t be terrible either. I would like to have India on my fantasy teams this year!

The Second Baseman that I failed to mention here do not suck, I also do not hate them. The intention of this piece, for myself and the readers, are to diagnose which guys can fill your roster out, and really apply the context of your draft to the position. Guys that are contributors of 3/5 I pretty much left out of here as I feel it would be overkill if I did that. Essentially, every player I didn’t go over, I’d say is a 3/5 or just someone not worth talking about.

Lastly, the eligibility that I used is current NFC eligible Second Basemen. Please know your format and know who has extra eligibility. Yahoo is very gracious with eligibility. Some guys that MAY have 2B eligibility on other sites are, Mookie Betts, Xavier Edwards, Tommy Edman, Ha-Seong Kim, Miguel Vargas, and Connor Norby. If I missed some, please feel free to yell at me on X.

Thank you for reading, and stay tuned for the rest of my fantasy rankings (roto), and betting content on X, and my Chalkboard page (@nicksMLBpicks on both).

Fantasy Baseball Catcher Ranking Takeaways

Nick Francis — Sun, 01 Dec 2024 17:32:23 GMT

As I finished up my first edition of Catcher roto rankings for 2025 Fantasy, I looked around at where I stood compared to other rankings (from Rotochamp, CBS, ESPN, and also Average Draft Position from NFC). This may be looked at as bad practice, but I try my best not to look at other Rankings/ADP when I make my rankings initially. However, when I was scrolling through the other website’s rankings, I noticed a pattern. I am significantly higher on one player than the general consensus (so far).

Sean Murphy (7th):

I feel like I’m missing something here. If the drafts go the way that they look, Sean Murphy will be “my guy” at catcher this season. He’s got the contract, He’s great defensively. So the playing time will be there, barring (another) injury. He’s been banged up, but if he can put together a healthy season, he’ll finish as a top 5 catcher.

He’s 17th in NFC ADP currently, and I’m just scratching my head… The Braves traded for him a couple years ago, and I feel like they haven’t reaped the benefits of him yet. I think that they will this season. Especially with Travis d’Arnaud out of the picture now. That will later on, tie into the other discrepancy I noticed.

But let’s stay on Sean Murphy a bit longer. He’s going to batting in that gauntlet of a Braves lineup, that has the potential to supply crooked Run and RBI production. From a value standpoint, Murphy is currently sandwiched between Connor Wong (BOS) and Ryan Jeffers (MIN) in NFC ADP around pick 230-250. I refuse to believe he goes that low. If he does, then I’ll have him in all of my leagues!

Before I move on, I do have to address the “light pink” flag on Sean Murphy. Braves #5 prospect, Drake Baldwin. I don’t believe that Baldwin will break camp with the Braves, but our resident Braves fans, Brad and Jeb, think that he could be up post All-Star Break. The 17th catcher in ADP can’t be completely perfect. That would be too easy! But I am looking forward to seeing how many leagues I get Sean Murphy in.

Now, moving on to my earlier mentioned “other” discrepancy…

Logan O’Hoppe (14th)

This one is kind of ironic, since last season I had O’Hoppe ranked as high as anybody in the fantasy world (8th). This ranking to me is less a knock on O’Hoppe, and more-so a knock on the situation that he’ll be in. He hit .167 vs LHP last season, and rather than let him develop and learn through that, the Angels signed a former backstop for Ron Washington, in Travis d’Arnaud, who had an OPS of .922 vs LHP.

O’Hoppe is being drafted on average 150 picks earlier than Murphy. No thank you. I’m usually a fan of waiting on a catcher in drafts, and this year is no different. Every year, there are some overvalued players at every position, and it appears this year O’Hoppe is on the trajectory to be included there.

The Halo’s catching duo will be great for real life baseball, but for fantasy is a bit frustrating. I think the long term development for O’Hoppe has me torn. Does he learn from the veteran in d’Arnaud? Or do the lack of AB’s vs LHP set him back? Hopefully it all works out long term for O’Hoppe. He’s been a favorite of mine for a few years now.

Now, before I put a bow on this, I don’t want to make myself look like a complete donkey… Logan O’Hoppe has the potential to be a complete stud vs RHP this season, and still be a top 5 catcher. Despite the high K% (29.7%), his xBA was still .251, and he hit 20 HR’s. I also want to point out, that if you play in a DAILY lineups league, my ranking for him goes up. But for my weekly lineups, I want a catcher eligible player that will be in the lineup for the majority of those games. I also previously stated that I like to wait on a catcher. Sometimes that can change if you play in a two catcher league. If that’s the case, you may have to structure your draft differently. The scoring and lineup context is SO important to take into consideration when consuming fantasy content. Know your league, platform, and settings!

If you want my Top 30 Catcher rankings, you can find them on my X page (@nicksMLBpicks), and my Chalkboard page with the same handle. That link is in my X bio.

I would love to put out one of these reviews on my rankings following each position. No promises though. I may be complete chalk on my other positional rankings, but we’ll have to find out. I look forward to finishing them. But in the mean time, I thank you for reading, and hope that you can use some of this during draft season!

AL Wildcard Thoughts

Nick Francis — Tue, 01 Oct 2024 14:51:01 GMT

When the AL Wildcard matchups were finalized, I was initially excited to see the lines, mostly to see the value in Kansas City and Detroit. I was kind of disappointed to see the lack of value. +154 for DET and +144 for KC (FanDuel). However, I still think the favorites don’t deserve the -170 / -180 range price tag.

I have had a pretty profitable history of betting Series lines the past few seasons. They are mostly underdogs, with a few obvious favorites. But let’s dive in.

Starting in Baltimore:

Game 1 Starters will be Burnes vs Ragans. I’ll be like a pig in crap watching this game. Game 2 will likely be Eflin vs Lugo. I don’t think Game 3 matters for Baltimore. They are missing one of their biggest weapons in Grayson Rodriguez, and if the Royals win either of the first two games, they are in trouble. They will have to put their season in the hands of Dean Kremer, Albert Suarez, or rookie lefty, Cade Povich.

Kansas City leads the league in OAA with 35, and Baltimore is 21st with -9 (baseball savant). Kansas City has also turned their bullpen around and has a 2.95 ERA the last month, with a 2.99 SIERA to back it up. Baltimore has DFA’d Kimbrel since but has a 5.50 ERA, with a 3.64 SIERA the last month (Fangraphs). The significant part about handicapping these wildcard series is that you can use road and home stats for the teams since all three games will played at the higher seed’s park. Kansas City is obviously better at home than on the road, but they will be facing two rights and potentially another in Game 3, and they have a 114 wRC+ vs RHP on the road in July/August/September (Fangraphs). Baltimore for Game 1 will see a Lefty in Ragans, and in those same months, have a 79 wRC+ at Home vs LHP. They are, however, much better vs RHP and have a 115 wRC+, and will be seeing two rightys in Games 2 and 3.

The biggest variable that will come in the next 24 hours is Vinnie Pasquantino. There was an article on the MLB Trade Rumors page that he may return for the Wildcard series from his broken thumb two weeks ahead of the anticipated schedule. Vinnie had a .315 OBP with 97 RBI’s in 131 games this season. There has been a gaping hole without him.

Despite what the stats say, I do think that Baltimore has a better and deeper lineup than Kansas City. If the Royals hitters outside of Salvy and Witt don’t punish pitchers, they will have a hard time getting runs across the plate.

When I am torn on a playoff series, I find the better price and click it. With that being said, I will have:

Royals to win the series +144 to win 1u on FanDuel

Royals Game 1 Moneyline +132 to win .25u on FanDuel.

Getting into Detroit at Houston, I’m not using too many numbers for analysis. I’m using a revenge narrative. For AJ Hinch. A scapegoat for the Astros scandal. Revenge marinating for almost 7 years.

Like Kansas City, the Detroit defense has an advantage over Houston, and the bullpen, via ERA, is better. Not in SIERA, however. But expected statistics align with good or bad defense. So, I don’t expect Detroit to regress too much. But I do expect Houston’s pen to be better than they were. They always are in October. I do expect Houston to be better in most other facets. They always are. Detroit needs magic to win this series. They also required magic to overcome a project with a 0.2% chance of getting into the dance.

I’ve lost some good money betting against the Astros in the playoffs for years now. I’m fading them again. I will be betting:

Tigers to win the series +154 to win 1u.

Tigers ML +120 (.25u) on FanDuel, and Under 6 +105 (.25u) on MGM for Game 1.

If the Tigers win Game 1, it will be because of their pitching, not because of any offensive eruption. Tarik Skubal was my bet to win the AL Cy Young, so hopefully, he cashes out for me one more time this year!

Regardless of bets, I’m absolutely thrilled that it’s playoff time, and I look forward to enjoying these series between these clubs.